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final

STL4

St. Louis Blues

DAL0

Dallas Stars

Friday, October 2

Final · American Airlines Center

The short version

What happened

Hofer shuts out the Stars

Mason McTavish opened the scoring 1:34 in. Four different Blues scored. Joel Hofer stopped all 25 shots.

The chances were closer than the score.

What it means

  • The previewTwo of the preview’s three calls held.
  • RecordThe Blues are now 1-0-0.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (50% for St. Louis), and St. Louis came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−2 points44%
Who's been playing+5 points50%
Back-to-back0 points50%
Our chance for St. Louis the morning of the game50%
Tonight's lineup−8 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known42%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (50% for Dallas), and it went St. Louis’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+2 points56%
Who's been playing−5 points50%
Back-to-back0 points50%
Our chance for Dallas the morning of the game50%
Tonight's lineup+8 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known59%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 2 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Something has to give

    The Stars are the league’s best for chance quality, and the Blues are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. We think the Stars still get theirs.

    The call The Stars’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Blues.

    Dallas 1st for chance quality (a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot) · St. Louis 6th for preventing dangerous shots

    Didn’t happen

    On chance quality, Dallas had 5.3% a shot. The league average is 6.3% a shot, and they came in at 7.0% a shot.

    7.0% a shot
    Coming in
    5.3% a shot
    In this game
    6.3% a shot
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Bring a pillow

    St. Louis plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does Dallas. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 75.1 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): St. Louis 30th (78.6), Dallas 32nd (75.1)

    Held up

    The game ran at 67.7 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams combined, against the slower team’s usual 75.1 and a league average of 81.9.

    75.1 per 60
    Coming in
    67.7 per 60
    In this game
    81.9 per 60
    League average

  3. Before the game

    The Stars’ power play outclasses the Blues’

    On the power play, Dallas is one of the league’s best and St. Louis is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates more per 60 than the Blues’.

    Power play: Dallas 2nd, St. Louis 31st

    Held up

    On power-play expected goals per 60, Dallas had 7.1 per 60 and St. Louis 3.7 per 60. Coming in, Dallas was at 8.7 per 60 and St. Louis at 6.3 per 60.

    DAL 8.7 per 60 · STL 6.3 per 60
    Coming in
    DAL 7.1 per 60 · STL 3.7 per 60
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 94 held up, 12 partly, 64 didn’t happen, out of 170 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Too close to call on chances

Played out 100 times with these chances, St. Louis wins 46 and Dallas 54, close to a coin flip.

46%
St. Louis: 37 wins, plus half of the 19 ties
54%
Dallas: 44 wins, plus half of the 19 ties

St. Louis had 25 chances worth 2.5 expected goals. Dallas had 41 chances worth 2.8 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

St. LouisDallas
Goals40
Shots on goal2425
Expected goals2.62.8
Shot attempts at 5-on-53637
Power plays0 of 30 of 4

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: P. Broberg +1.2, J. Snuggerud +1.0 and P. Buchnevich +0.7.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • P. BrobergDid his job
    Defense
    23:08
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.1–0.4
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill5.2typical 6.7
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-54.6typical 2.3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.20typical 0.04
  • R. ThomasMixed night
    Center
    22:59
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.3typical 6.5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill12.0typical 6.6
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.3typical 2.6
  • C. FowlerOff night
    Defense
    22:38
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.1typical 6.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.2typical 6.2
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.6typical 2.3
  • C. ParaykoMixed night
    Defense
    20:27
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    3
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.8typical 6.7
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots3typical 2
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-53.1typical 2.1
  • D. HollowayDid his job
    Left wing
    19:21
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.2typical 6.3
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 3
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.0typical 2.2
  • J. SnuggerudBig night

    A shorthanded goal, 1 assist, 74% of the 5-on-5 chances with him on.

    Right wing
    18:59
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.3–0.4
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.2typical 6.6
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-57typical 3
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.29typical 0.11
Show 9 more St. Louis playersHide the other St. Louis players
  • P. BuchnevichDid his job
    Left wing
    17:11
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.7typical 5.4
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill8.8typical 6.8
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-56.5typical 2.4
  • B. CarloDid his job
    Defense
    15:27
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill12.7typical 6.6
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
  • T. LindsteinMixed night
    Defense
    15:13
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.00typical 0.04
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-53.2typical 2.5
  • M. McTavishDid his job
    Center
    14:36
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.8–0.1
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.2typical 6.3
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-53typical 2
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.58typical 0.08
  • P. SuterBig night

    A shorthanded goal, 1 assist. A strong game, even though his usual jobs were quieter.

    Center
    14:25
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +2
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.2
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill4.3typical 6.0
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.04typical 0.07
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.3typical 2.2
  • C. McMichaelMixed night
    Left wing
    13:03
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.1
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.0typical 5.9
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 6.6
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 2.5
  • J. NeighboursDid his job
    Left wing
    13:03
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.8
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play11.4typical 5.9
    • ≈Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 2
  • D. DvorskyMixed night

    A goal from a player who scores in about 1 game in 6, so it counts for more.

    Right wing
    13:03
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.8
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.9typical 5.8
    • ✕Faceoffs Relied onfaceoffs won4 of 10typical 46%
  • R. JohnstonDid his job
    Left wing
    9:59
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    5
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits5typical 3
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 40 ✓, 5 ≈, 30 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • J. Hofer★ Huge night

    A shutout, 25 saves on 25 shots, +2.8 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    25
    Saves
    25
    Sv%
    1.000
    xGA
    2.8
    GSAx
    +2.8
    Dangerous
    0/0
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+2.8typical +0.5
    • –Dangerous shots Too few shots to judge
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance25 of 25typically saves 24 of 25
  • J. OettingerDid his job
    Goalie
    58:17
    Shots
    22
    Saves
    20
    Sv%
    .909
    xGA
    2.6
    GSAx
    +0.6
    Dangerous
    3/5
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.6typical +0.3
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance3 of 5typically saves 4 of 5
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance17 of 17typically saves 16 of 17

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: St. Louis Blues · Dallas Stars