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CAR

Carolina Hurricanes

0-1-1

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-1-1

Has last change

Saturday, October 3

7:00 PM ET · Xfinity Mobile Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Flyers feed on mistakes, and the Hurricanes make them

The Hurricanes come in at 0-1-1, the Flyers at 0-1-1. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games, Carolina is playing for the second night in a row, and Philadelphia has home ice. Philadelphia can tip it if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Hurricanes come in at 0-1-1, the Flyers at 0-1-1. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games, Carolina is playing for the second night in a row, and Philadelphia has home ice. Philadelphia can still swing it if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Flyers pounce on loose pucks, and the Hurricanes cough them up. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • Owns themTrevor Zegras has a point in five straight games against Carolina.
  • Still outSeth Jarvis hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Old teamNicolas Deslauriers faces his old team, Philadelphia.

  1. The Flyers feed on mistakes, and the Hurricanes make them

    The Hurricanes give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Flyers pounce.

    The call The Flyers get at least their usual 7.9% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Philadelphia 2nd for chances off turnovers (7.9% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Carolina 25th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

  2. Expect the Hurricanes to fire from everywhere

    The Hurricanes shoot a lot, and the Flyers are near the bottom of the league at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Hurricanes take at least their usual 61.0 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Carolina 6th for shot volume (61.0 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Philadelphia 27th for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

  3. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Hurricanes and the Flyers are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 119.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Carolina 128 (2nd), Philadelphia 110 (7th)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Carolina and Philadelphia play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Carolina HurricanesPhiladelphia FlyersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Carolina, 2 for Philadelphia. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Carolina: 61.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

      Carolina: 44.5 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 46.6 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 39.7 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Carolina: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

      Carolina: a 5.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

    • Philadelphia: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 3.9% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Carolina: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

      Carolina: 0.8% of chances come from rebounds28th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds27th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.0% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Carolina: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

      Carolina: 3.4% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.9% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 3.7% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Carolina: 40.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

      Carolina: 46.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

    • Philadelphia: 33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 35.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Carolina: 28.7% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      Carolina: 30.0% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      Philadelphia: 15.6% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Carolina: 47.9 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

      Carolina: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 6015th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 59.5 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

      Philadelphia: 79.1 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Carolina: a 7.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

      Carolina: an 8.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against29th of 32

    • Philadelphia: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Carolina: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

      Carolina: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

      Philadelphia: 1.25 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Carolina: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

      Carolina: −0.30 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

    • Philadelphia: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      Philadelphia: −0.41 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Carolina: 81.8 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

      Carolina: 64.6 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 77.2 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

      Philadelphia: 86.0 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Carolina: forecheck score 131 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 29.8 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: forecheck score 154 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 40.8 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

    • Philadelphia: forecheck score 100 (100 is league average)14th of 32Philadelphia: 21.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      Philadelphia: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)21st of 32Philadelphia: 19.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Carolina: hit score 128 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 33.5 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: hit score 170 (100 is league average)4th of 32Carolina: 58.2 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

    • Philadelphia: hit score 110 (100 is league average)7th of 32Philadelphia: 27.7 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

      Philadelphia: hit score 95 (100 is league average)17th of 32Philadelphia: 29.4 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Carolina: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

      Carolina: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 43.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Philadelphia: 44.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Carolina: 8.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

      Carolina: 10.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 5.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play19th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Carolina: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Carolina: 2.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      Philadelphia: 7.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Carolina: 1.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Carolina: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Carolina: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Carolina: 1.44 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.19 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

      Philadelphia: 1.95 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Philadelphia is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Carolina Hurricanes

Philadelphia Flyers

Worth knowing

  • Carolina S. Jarvis has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. E. Robinson has taken his spot beside S. Aho and A. Svechnikov.

Who Philadelphia is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Philadelphia group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Carolina’s, named in each box.

Carolina’s lines tonightL1 Staal · Martinook · EhlersL2 Hall · Stankoven · BlakeL3 Aho · Robinson · SvechnikovL4 Deslauriers · Jankowski · Carrier

Philadelphia forward lines against Carolina forward lines

  • L1Couturier · Acciari · GrundstromCAR L120%CAR L226%CAR L39%CAR L445%
  • L2Cates · Foerster · MichkovCAR L121%CAR L229%CAR L338%CAR L412%
  • L3Dvorak · Konecny · MartoneCAR L161%CAR L216%CAR L30%CAR L423%
  • L4Tippett · Zegras · BumpCAR L124%CAR L221%CAR L345%CAR L410%

Philadelphia defense pairs against Carolina forward lines

  • P1Ristolainen · SanheimCAR L137%CAR L28%CAR L328%CAR L428%
  • P2York · DrysdaleCAR L122%CAR L230%CAR L320%CAR L428%
  • P3Seeler · BenoitCAR L122%CAR L240%CAR L328%CAR L410%

Based on 1 Philadelphia home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Carolina power play against Philadelphia penalty kill

  • Carolina power play

    8.1 expected goals per 60 · 6th of 32

  • Philadelphia penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 14th of 32

Worth knowing

  • J. Staal is sent out to take power-play faceoffs, then changes. He has taken 71% of the team’s power-play draws but stays on for about 24 seconds at a time, against 63 for the regulars, and is most often replaced by N. Ehlers (8 of 10 changes).

Carolina power play

PP161% of the time

Creates 8.2 expected goals per 60

  • S. GostisbehereQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth units
  • A. SvechnikovTrigger
  • S. Aho
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor

PP239% of the time

Creates 7.6 expected goals per 60

  • K. MillerQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth unitsTrigger
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor
  • L. StankovenNet-front
  • T. HallNet-front

 

Where Carolina’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Philadelphia penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

B. Bussi41 starts · 960 shots, this season and last

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 453 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 343 shots
High-danger save %
.701 164 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
54%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiD. VladarJ. Woll

D. Vladar50 starts · 1321 shots, this season and last

+10.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.985 683 shots
Medium-danger save %
.864 457 shots
High-danger save %
.691 181 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.41
Quality starts
74%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 41 starts
    • D. Vladar: +10.6 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 23.2 shots faced per 60
    • D. Vladar: 25.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Vladar: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 84 seconds between shots
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 79 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 54% of the time
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 74% of the time

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

B. Bussi2 starts · 47 shots, this season

−0.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.909 22 shots
Medium-danger save %
.933 15 shots
High-danger save %
.700 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiD. VladarJ. Woll

D. Vladar1 start · 38 shots, this season

−2.3 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.944 18 shots
Medium-danger save %
.786 14 shots
High-danger save %
.500 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
38.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.01
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: −0.6 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • D. Vladar: −2.3 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 22.6 shots faced per 60
    • D. Vladar: 38.2 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 8.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Vladar: 1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 104 seconds between shots
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 50% of the time
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CarolinaPhiladelphiaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.4%58.8%
  • Power play19.8%14.9%
  • Rebound6.1%3.8%
  • Empty net6.4%8.8%
  • Off a turnover5.3%6.5%
  • Goalie pulled2.8%3.4%
  • Shorthanded2.8%2.7%
  • Off a faceoff win0.3%1.1%

358 Carolina goals and 262 Philadelphia goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%50%
  • Power play50%0%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%50%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

2 Carolina goals and 2 Philadelphia goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Carolina Hurricanes · Philadelphia Flyers