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NJD

New Jersey Devils

1-0-0

NYI

New York Islanders

0-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 3

7:30 PM ET · UBS Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Islanders can’t afford to take penalties

The Devils come in at 1-0-0, the Islanders at 0-1-0. New Jersey has had more of the chances over recent games and the Islanders have home ice. The Islanders can pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Devils come in at 1-0-0, the Islanders at 0-1-0. New Jersey has had more of the chances over recent games and the Islanders have home ice. The Islanders’ way back in is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Devils’ power play has a soft target in the Islanders’ kill.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themBo Horvat has seven goals in nine games against New Jersey since 2023-24.
  • Haunts themJack Hughes has six goals in eight games against the Islanders since 2023-24.
  • Old teamOndrej Palat faces his old team, New Jersey.

  1. The Islanders can’t afford to take penalties

    The Devils’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Islanders’ kill is one of the league’s worst. Every trip to the box hurts the Islanders more than most.

    The call The Devils’ power play creates at least their usual 8.5 expected goals per 60.

    New Jersey 4th for power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · NY Islanders 31st for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

  2. The Devils feed on mistakes, and the Islanders make them

    The Devils turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Islanders are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Islanders.

    The call The Devils get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    New Jersey 6th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How New Jersey and NY Islanders play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New Jersey DevilsNew York IslandersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for New Jersey, 1 for NY Islanders. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • New Jersey: 63.3 shot attempts per 602nd of 32

      New Jersey: 82.5 shot attempts per 601st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 58.1 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      NY Islanders: 66.0 shot attempts per 605th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

      NY Islanders: a 4.9% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

      New Jersey: 11.6% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      NY Islanders: 4.6% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • New Jersey: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      New Jersey: 12.2% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      NY Islanders: 12.8% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • New Jersey: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      New Jersey: 38.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 38.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • New Jersey: 28.9% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

      New Jersey: 25.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 29.8% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • New Jersey: 55.2 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: 43.6 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 57.9 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      NY Islanders: 51.2 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • New Jersey: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      New Jersey: a 4.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      NY Islanders: a 4.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • New Jersey: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • New Jersey: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: −0.20 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

    • NY Islanders: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: +0.47 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • New Jersey: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      New Jersey: 84.9 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      NY Islanders: 87.4 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • New Jersey: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)18th of 32New Jersey: 20.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      New Jersey: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)7th of 32New Jersey: 27.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 91 (100 is league average)25th of 32NY Islanders: 21.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 74 (100 is league average)27th of 32NY Islanders: 22.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • New Jersey: hit score 82 (100 is league average)31st of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

      New Jersey: hit score 66 (100 is league average)26th of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6026th of 32

    • NY Islanders: hit score 94 (100 is league average)19th of 32NY Islanders: 25.4 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 87 (100 is league average)19th of 32NY Islanders: 34.5 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • New Jersey: 39.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

      New Jersey: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

      NY Islanders: 44.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • New Jersey: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      New Jersey: 6.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 4.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • New Jersey: 7.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      NY Islanders: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      New Jersey: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      NY Islanders: 1.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • New Jersey: 0.04 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

      New Jersey: 2.84 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.13 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Islanders is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New Jersey Devils

New York Islanders

Who NY Islanders is likely to send against whom

NY Islanders has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

New Jersey power play against NY Islanders penalty kill

  • New Jersey power play

    8.5 expected goals per 60 · 4th of 32

  • NY Islanders penalty kill

    8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 31st of 32

New Jersey power play

PP166% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • L. HughesQuarterback
  • L. Evangelista
  • J. HughesDistributor
  • J. BrattNet-front
  • N. HischierTrigger

PP234% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • D. HamiltonQuarterback
  • T. MeierTrigger
  • E. Rodrigues
  • A. Gritsyuk
  • A. Mantha

 

Where New Jersey’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

NY Islanders penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Allen38 starts · 1057 shots, this season and last

+12.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 526 shots
Medium-danger save %
.910 366 shots
High-danger save %
.648 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
58%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenI. Sorokin

I. Sorokin56 starts · 1556 shots, this season and last

+27.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 759 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 543 shots
High-danger save %
.772 254 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
54%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: +12.6 goals saved above expected in 38 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +27.7 goals saved above expected in 56 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 28.2 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 28.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 58% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 54% of the time

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen1 start · 25 shots, this season

−0.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.933 15 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 9 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 1 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenI. Sorokin

I. Sorokin1 start · 26 shots, this season

+0.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 10 shots
Medium-danger save %
.933 15 shots
High-danger save %
.000 1 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: −0.2 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: +0.5 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 23.7 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: 26.9 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 5.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
New JerseyNY IslandersLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.9%55.9%
  • Power play19.3%17%
  • Rebound2.6%7%
  • Empty net7.9%3.1%
  • Off a turnover4.4%2.2%
  • Goalie pulled4.4%6.6%
  • Shorthanded2.6%4.4%
  • Off a faceoff win0.9%3.9%

228 New Jersey goals and 229 NY Islanders goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%0%
  • Power play0%0%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover33.3%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%100%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

3 New Jersey goals and 1 NY Islanders goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New Jersey Devils · New York Islanders