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DAL

Dallas Stars

0-1-0

NSH

Nashville Predators

0-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 3

8:00 PM ET · Bridgestone Arena

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Nashville

The Predators won the first meeting this season, 2-1 in Nashville. The Stars come in at 0-2-0, the Predators at 1-1-0. Dallas has controlled the play far better over recent games, Dallas is playing for the second night in a row, and Nashville has home ice. Nashville can tip it if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Predators won the first meeting this season, 2-1 in Nashville. The Stars come in at 0-2-0, the Predators at 1-1-0. Dallas has controlled the play far better over recent games, Dallas is playing for the second night in a row, and Nashville has home ice. Dallas can tip it if their penalty kill holds up.

The Stars and the Predators sit at opposite ends for shot quality.

Who to watch

  • Still outM. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Old teamMavrik Bourque faces his old team, Dallas.

  1. The Stars hunt better looks than the Predators

    On shot quality, Dallas is one of the league’s best and Nashville is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Predators’.

    Shot quality: Dallas 3rd, Nashville 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

  2. The Stars’ power play outclasses the Predators’

    On the power play, Dallas is one of the league’s best and Nashville is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates more per 60 than the Predators’.

    Power play: Dallas 3rd, Nashville 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Dallas and Nashville play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Dallas StarsNashville PredatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Dallas, 1 for Nashville. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Dallas: 50.5 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

      Dallas: 51.1 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

    • Nashville: 53.7 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Nashville: 42.0 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Dallas: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot3rd of 32

      Dallas: a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

    • Nashville: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot28th of 32

      Nashville: a 3.9% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

      Dallas: 4.3% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

    • Nashville: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      Nashville: 5.5% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Dallas: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Dallas: 13.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Nashville: 4.6% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Dallas: 35.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

      Dallas: 37.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

    • Nashville: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

      Nashville: 24.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Dallas: 32.7% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

      Dallas: 26.9% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

    • Nashville: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

      Nashville: 28.0% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Dallas: 55.0 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

      Dallas: 60.0 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

    • Nashville: 59.2 shot attempts allowed per 6026th of 32

      Nashville: 69.7 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Dallas: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      Dallas: a 10.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

    • Nashville: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Dallas: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Nashville: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6018th of 32

      Nashville: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Dallas: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

      Dallas: +0.59 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

    • Nashville: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

      Nashville: +0.03 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Dallas: 74.6 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 67.7 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

    • Nashville: 84.2 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

      Nashville: 87.1 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Dallas: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Dallas: 21.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32Dallas: 27.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

    • Nashville: forecheck score 95 (100 is league average)20th of 32Nashville: 21.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

      Nashville: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)19th of 32Nashville: 23.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Dallas: hit score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 32Dallas: 23.6 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Dallas: hit score 67 (100 is league average)25th of 32Dallas: 24.4 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

    • Nashville: hit score 84 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 22.4 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: hit score 56 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 19.5 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Dallas: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

      Dallas: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

    • Nashville: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

      Nashville: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Dallas: 8.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      Nashville: 4.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Dallas: 7.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Dallas: 3.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Nashville: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

    • Nashville: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

      Nashville: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Dallas: 0.05 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: 1.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 606th of 32

    • Nashville: 0.01 more penalties drawn than taken per 6016th of 32

      Nashville: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Nashville is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Dallas Stars

Nashville Predators

Worth knowing

  • Dallas M. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. A. Hyry has taken his spot beside J. Benn and S. Steel.

Who Nashville is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Nashville group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Dallas’s, named in each box.

Dallas’s lines tonightL1 Rantanen · Johnston · HryckowianL2 Faksa · Bäck · KivirantaL3 Seguin · Hintz · RobertsonL4 Benn · Steel · Hyry

Nashville forward lines against Dallas forward lines

  • L1Drury · Edstrom · SchaeferDAL L113%DAL L224%DAL L336%DAL L428%
  • L2Marchessault · Colton · BourqueDAL L126%DAL L234%DAL L35%DAL L435%
  • L3Forsberg · Hoglander · WoodDAL L148%DAL L26%DAL L324%DAL L422%
  • L4Stamkos · O'Reilly · KerfootDAL L115%DAL L222%DAL L352%DAL L411%

Nashville defense pairs against Dallas forward lines

  • P1Hague · WilsbyDAL L146%DAL L219%DAL L317%DAL L417%
  • P2Skjei · PerbixDAL L115%DAL L219%DAL L324%DAL L442%
  • P3Josi · UfkoDAL L18%DAL L235%DAL L351%DAL L47%

Based on 1 Nashville home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Dallas power play against Nashville penalty kill

  • Dallas power play

    8.6 expected goals per 60 · 3rd of 32

  • Nashville penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 13th of 32

Dallas power play

PP165% of the time

Creates 7.4 expected goals per 60

  • M. HeiskanenQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsDistributor
  • J. Robertson
  • W. JohnstonTrigger
  • R. HintzNet-front

PP235% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • T. HarleyQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsTrigger
  • J. HryckowianNet-front
  • T. SeguinNet-front
  • J. Benn

 

Where Dallas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Nashville penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Oettinger53 starts · 1394 shots, this season and last

+8.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 734 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 461 shots
High-danger save %
.714 199 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
60%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerJ. Saros

J. Saros57 starts · 1730 shots, this season and last

+1.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 857 shots
Medium-danger save %
.878 591 shots
High-danger save %
.681 282 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
51%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +8.3 goals saved above expected in 53 starts
    • J. Saros: +1.8 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 25.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Saros: 29.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Saros: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 60% of the time
    • J. Saros: a quality start 51% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger1 start · 22 shots, this season

+0.6 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 3 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
22.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerJ. Saros

J. Saros1 start · 30 shots, this season

0.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 14 shots
High-danger save %
.500 2 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +0.6 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: 0.0 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 22.6 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: 30.9 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 9.2% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 6.2% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • J. Saros: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
DallasNashvilleLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play51.7%51.9%
  • Power play27.1%22.2%
  • Rebound7.3%7%
  • Empty net4.2%6.6%
  • Off a turnover1.7%5.3%
  • Goalie pulled3.8%2.5%
  • Shorthanded1.4%2.9%
  • Off a faceoff win2.8%1.6%

288 Dallas goals and 243 Nashville goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play–%100%
  • Power play–%0%
  • Rebound–%0%
  • Empty net–%0%
  • Off a turnover–%0%
  • Goalie pulled–%0%
  • Shorthanded–%0%
  • Off a faceoff win–%0%

0 Dallas goals and 1 Nashville goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Dallas Stars · Nashville Predators