Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

0-0-1

DET

Detroit Red Wings

0-1-0

Has last change

Sunday, October 4

1:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Jets’ defense joins the attack; the Red Wings’ stays home

The Jets come in at 0-0-1, the Red Wings at 0-1-0. Winnipeg has had more of the chances over recent games and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can tip it if their power play gets going.

The Jets come in at 0-0-1, the Red Wings at 0-1-0. Winnipeg has had more of the chances over recent games and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can still swing it if their power play gets going.

The Jets and the Red Wings sit at opposite ends for shots from defensemen.

Who to watch

  • Old teamMason Appleton faces his old team, Winnipeg.
  • Leads the wayKyle Connor leads the Jets with two points.

  1. The Jets’ defense joins the attack; the Red Wings’ stays home

    The Jets are one of the league’s best for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Red Wings are around the middle of the league, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Jets’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Red Wings’.

    Shots from defensemen: Winnipeg 5th, Detroit 22nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

  2. Sheltered against exposed

    On preventing dangerous shots, Winnipeg is around the middle of the league and Detroit is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Jets prevent dangerous shots better than the Red Wings do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: Winnipeg 16th, Detroit 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Winnipeg and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Winnipeg JetsDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Winnipeg, 1 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Winnipeg: 54.2 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 56.1 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

    • Detroit: 53.5 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Detroit: 44.3 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Winnipeg: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 4.7% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

      Detroit: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Winnipeg: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

      Winnipeg: 11.6% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

      Detroit: 27.3% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Winnipeg: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover29th of 32

      Winnipeg: 6.1% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Detroit: 3.7% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Winnipeg: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      Winnipeg: 37.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen9th of 32

    • Detroit: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Detroit: 34.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Winnipeg: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 22.5% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

    • Detroit: 30.0% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

      Detroit: 36.0% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Winnipeg: 57.6 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

      Winnipeg: 69.4 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

    • Detroit: 57.2 shot attempts allowed per 6017th of 32

      Detroit: 39.9 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Detroit: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against24th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Winnipeg: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 605th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Winnipeg: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Winnipeg: −0.92 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.16 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

      Detroit: +1.18 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Winnipeg: 81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

      Winnipeg: 98.8 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

    • Detroit: 80.9 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

      Detroit: 58.0 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Winnipeg: forecheck score 83 (100 is league average)31st of 32Winnipeg: 19.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

      Winnipeg: forecheck score 76 (100 is league average)28th of 32Winnipeg: 20.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)19th of 32Detroit: 20.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 128 (100 is league average)5th of 32Detroit: 31.7 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Winnipeg: hit score 91 (100 is league average)24th of 32Winnipeg: 24.4 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: hit score 62 (100 is league average)32nd of 32Winnipeg: 20.1 hits recorded per 6032nd of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 91 (100 is league average)25th of 32Detroit: 23.5 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 112 (100 is league average)8th of 32Detroit: 33.9 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Winnipeg: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

      Winnipeg: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

    • Detroit: 41.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      Detroit: 38.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Winnipeg: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

      Winnipeg: 19.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

    • Detroit: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 3.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Winnipeg: 7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Winnipeg: 3.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 5.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Winnipeg: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 1.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Detroit: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Winnipeg: 0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.95 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.22 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 2.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Winnipeg Jets

Detroit Red Wings

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Winnipeg’s, named in each box.

Winnipeg’s lines tonightL1 Scheifele · Connor · PerfettiL2 Vilardi · Rosen · BjörckL3 Lowry · Barron · LambertL4 Niederreiter · Namestnikov · Iafallo

Detroit forward lines against Winnipeg forward lines

  • L1Copp · DeBrincat · RaymondWPG L139%WPG L234%WPG L314%WPG L413%
  • L2Compher · Arvidsson · FinnieWPG L138%WPG L214%WPG L327%WPG L421%
  • L3Kolesar · Rasmussen · KasperWPG L110%WPG L233%WPG L315%WPG L442%
  • L4Appleton · Danielson · Brandsegg-NygårdWPG L148%WPG L212%WPG L317%WPG L423%

Detroit defense pairs against Winnipeg forward lines

  • P1Faulk · JohanssonWPG L141%WPG L223%WPG L315%WPG L422%
  • P2Seider · JohanssonWPG L137%WPG L234%WPG L317%WPG L412%
  • P3Chiarot · Sandin-PellikkaWPG L113%WPG L214%WPG L327%WPG L446%

Based on 1 Detroit home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Winnipeg power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • Winnipeg power play

    7.5 expected goals per 60 · 14th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 21st of 32

Winnipeg power play

PP180% of the time

Creates 8.7 expected goals per 60

  • J. MorrisseyQuarterback
  • M. Scheifele
  • G. VilardiTrigger
  • C. PerfettiNet-front
  • K. ConnorDistributor

PP220% of the time

Creates 7.2 expected goals per 60

  • N. PionkQuarterback
  • V. NamestnikovTrigger
  • I. Rosen
  • N. NiederreiterNet-front
  • V. Björck

 

Where Winnipeg’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

S. Skinner49 starts · 1297 shots, this season and last

+10.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 603 shots
Medium-danger save %
.880 476 shots
High-danger save %
.665 218 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
51%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. SkinnerJ. Gibson

J. Gibson56 starts · 1481 shots, this season and last

+18.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 740 shots
Medium-danger save %
.873 536 shots
High-danger save %
.722 205 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
52%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Skinner: +10.2 goals saved above expected in 49 starts
    • J. Gibson: +18.8 goals saved above expected in 56 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Skinner: 26.1 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Skinner: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 51% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 52% of the time

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner1 start · 30 shots, this season

−1.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.947 19 shots
Medium-danger save %
.714 7 shots
High-danger save %
.750 4 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesS. SkinnerJ. Gibson

J. Gibson1 start · 20 shots, this season

+1.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 10 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 9 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 1 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • S. Skinner: −1.0 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: +1.2 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • S. Skinner: 28.4 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: 20.3 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 5.7% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • S. Skinner: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 134 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
WinnipegDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%54%
  • Power play18.6%23%
  • Rebound8.2%4.2%
  • Empty net5.6%8.8%
  • Off a turnover3.5%4.6%
  • Goalie pulled2.2%2.5%
  • Shorthanded2.2%1.3%
  • Off a faceoff win2.6%1.7%

231 Winnipeg goals and 239 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%–%
  • Power play33.3%–%
  • Rebound0%–%
  • Empty net0%–%
  • Off a turnover0%–%
  • Goalie pulled0%–%
  • Shorthanded0%–%
  • Off a faceoff win0%–%

3 Winnipeg goals and 0 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Winnipeg Jets · Detroit Red Wings