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final

OTT3

Ottawa Senators

DET5

Detroit Red Wings

Tuesday, October 6

Final · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

What happened

The Red Wings beat the Senators

Tim Stützle opened the scoring early in the first. Alex DeBrincat added two goals. Four different Red Wings scored. Justin Faulk scored the winner early in the second.

The chances were close to even, so this one could have gone either way. The Red Wings tried a line they hadn’t used before: Andrew Copp, Keegan Kolesar and Michael Rasmussen.

What it means

  • Keep an eye onWhether the Red Wings keep that line together at home against Seattle on Friday.
  • The previewOne of the preview’s two calls held.

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We had this close to even (54% for Ottawa), and it went Detroit’s way.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances+17 points63%
Who's been playing−1 points62%
Back-to-back−8 points55%
Our chance for Ottawa the morning of the game54%
Tonight's lineup−1 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known54%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We had this close to even (46% for Detroit), and Detroit came through.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances−17 points37%
Who's been playing+1 points38%
Back-to-back+8 points46%
Our chance for Detroit the morning of the game46%
Tonight's lineup+1 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known46%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Who’s been playing: whether the players who dressed last time were stronger or weaker than the ones behind those recent games, so a star who is out or back counts straight away. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: any change in who dressed since the last game. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 2 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 0 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Something has to give

    The Red Wings are one of the league’s best for the power play, and the Senators are one of the league’s best at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Red Wings’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

    The call The Red Wings’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.5 expected goals per 60 against the Senators.

    Detroit 4th for the power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · Ottawa 2nd for the penalty kill

    Held up

    On the power play, Detroit had 12.0 per 60. The league average is 7.5 per 60, and they came in at 8.5 per 60.

    8.5 per 60
    Coming in
    12.0 per 60
    In this game
    7.5 per 60
    League average

  2. Before the game

    The Senators should get some good looks

    The Senators make their shots count, and the Red Wings are near the bottom of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Senators to get some real chances.

    The call The Senators’ average shot has at least their usual 6.8% chance of going in.

    Ottawa 3rd for shot quality (a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Detroit 25th for preventing dangerous shots

    Didn’t happen

    Ottawa’s average shot had a 5.3% chance of going in, against their usual 6.8%.

    6.8% a shot
    Coming in
    5.3% a shot
    In this game
    6.3% a shot
    League average

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 87 held up, 11 partly, 62 didn’t happen, out of 160 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Detroit earned this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Detroit wins 69.

31%
Ottawa: 23 wins, plus half of the 15 ties
69%
Detroit: 61 wins, plus half of the 15 ties

Ottawa had 34 chances worth 2.5 expected goals. Detroit had 42 chances worth 3.7 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

OttawaDetroit
Goals35
Shots on goal2536
Expected goals2.53.7
Shot attempts at 5-on-53644
Power plays1 of 51 of 5

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: J. Faulk +1.6, A. DeBrincat +1.6 and W. Eklund +1.1.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • T. ChabotDid his job
    Defense
    26:12
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–1.0
    Shots
    5
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    3
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play3.3typical 6.6
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.9typical 6.2
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots3typical 2
  • J. SpenceRough night

    No points, and 74% of the 5-on-5 chances went the other way with him on.

    Defense
    22:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–1.2
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.6typical 2.9
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-54.4typical 2.0
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.00typical 0.05
  • T. StützleBig night

    A goal, 1 assist.

    Center
    21:37
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    5
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.5typical 7.1
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill7.9typical 6.1
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.16typical 0.09
  • D. CozensOff night
    Center
    21:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.6
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.3typical 7.1
    • ✕Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-52typical 4
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.01typical 0.15
  • W. EklundBig night

    A goal, 1 assist.

    Left wing
    20:09
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.7–0.3
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.3typical 6.6
    • ✓Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.41typical 0.15
  • T. KlevenMixed night

    No points, and 94% of the 5-on-5 chances went the other way with him on, though he still did his usual jobs.

    Defense
    18:58
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.9
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill21.2typical 5.8
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits1typical 1
Show 12 more Ottawa playersHide the other Ottawa players
  • D. BathersonMixed night

    A power-play goal, 1 assist. A good scoresheet, but his usual jobs went quiet.

    Right wing
    17:07
    G
    1
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    5
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play9.5typical 7.3
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.02typical 0.11
  • C. YakemchukOff night
    Defense
    17:07
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.7
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play8.7typical 6.8
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.01typical 0.03
  • S. PintoMixed night
    Center
    16:37
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.4typical 6.2
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill15.1typical 6.1
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-51.9typical 2.0
  • N. MatinpaloOff night
    Defense
    16:35
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.2
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    4
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill13.2typical 6.9
  • M. AmadioMixed night
    Right wing
    15:39
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.7
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.8typical 5.9
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-53.4typical 2.0
    • ≈Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 1
  • C. GirouxOff night
    Right wing
    15:28
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.1typical 6.5
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill19.9typical 6.3
    • ≈Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won7 of 13typical 64%
  • F. ZetterlundDid his job
    Left wing
    15:00
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.6–0.5
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 2
  • R. GreigOff night
    Center
    13:10
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.6
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill37.2typical 5.8
    • ≈Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.09typical 0.09
    • –Faceoffs Better than mostToo little time to judge
  • C. CrottyMixed night
    Defense
    10:51
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    +1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ≈Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-51.7typical 2.5
  • S. HallidayDid his job
    Center
    10:37
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.2–0.6
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.4typical 6.5
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-51typical 1
  • W. FoegeleOff night
    Left wing
    8:51
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.7
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill0.0typical 6.3
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-55.0typical 2.1
  • N. CousinsMixed night
    Center
    6:02
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −2
    xGF–xGA
    0.0–0.8
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits4typical 1
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-57.9typical 1.9
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 40 ✓, 6 ≈, 27 ✕.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • S. ErssonOff night
    Goalie
    57:56
    Shots
    35
    Saves
    31
    Sv%
    .886
    xGA
    3.7
    GSAx
    −0.3
    Dangerous
    4/7
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-0.3typical -0.1
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 7typically saves 5 of 7
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance27 of 28typically saves 26 of 28
  • J. GibsonOff night
    Goalie
    59:54
    Shots
    25
    Saves
    22
    Sv%
    .880
    xGA
    2.5
    GSAx
    −0.5
    Dangerous
    4/7
    • ✕Saving more than expected goals saved above expected-0.5typical +0.2
    • ✕Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance4 of 7typically saves 5 of 7
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance18 of 18typically saves 17 of 18

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Ottawa Senators · Detroit Red Wings