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VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

2-1-0

SEA

Seattle Kraken

2-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

9:40 PM ET · Climate Pledge Arena

The short version

Before the game

Eichel’s favourite opponent

The Golden Knights already came to Seattle once this season and left with a 6-2 win. The Kraken are 2-2-0. The Golden Knights have won two in a row, the last a 6-2 rout of Seattle. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Seattle has home ice. Seattle could still pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away, but they might need a miracle.

The Golden Knights already came to Seattle once this season and left with a 6-2 win. The Kraken are 2-2-0. The Golden Knights have won two in a row, the last a 6-2 rout of Seattle. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Seattle has home ice. Anything short of a win would be a surprise, though Seattle can make a game of it if they keep dangerous shots away.

It’s strength against strength: the Golden Knights for chance quality, the Kraken at preventing dangerous shots. The Golden Knights’ power play has a soft target in the Kraken’s kill.

Who to watch

  • Owns themJack Eichel has a point in nine straight games against Seattle, and 20 points in his last eleven against them.
  • Owns themJared McCann has a point in five straight games against Vegas.
  • Hot streakVictor Olofsson has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakJordan Eberle has a point in every game this season.

  1. The matchup inside the matchup

    The Golden Knights are one of the league’s best for chance quality, and the Kraken are one of the league’s best at preventing dangerous shots. We’ll side with the Golden Knights.

    The call The Golden Knights’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Kraken.

    Vegas 5th for chance quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Seattle 2nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  2. The Kraken can’t afford to take penalties

    The Golden Knights’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Kraken’s kill is near the bottom of the league. The Kraken need to stay out of the box.

    The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates at least their usual 8.9 expected goals per 60.

    Vegas 2nd for power play (8.9 expected goals per 60) · Seattle 27th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  3. The Golden Knights are going to test the Kraken’s goalie early and often

    Seattle has been giving up shots all season, and the Golden Knights rarely pass one up.

    The call The Golden Knights take at least their usual 59.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Vegas 9th for shot volume (59.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Seattle 32nd for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vegas and Seattle play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vegas Golden KnightsSeattle KrakenLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Vegas, 3 for Seattle. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vegas: 59.2 shot attempts per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 61.3 shot attempts per 608th of 32

    • Seattle: 53.4 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

      Seattle: 56.0 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vegas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot5th of 32

      Vegas: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

    • Seattle: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vegas: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

      Vegas: 20.2% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

      Seattle: 2.6% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      Vegas: 3.1% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

    • Seattle: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

      Seattle: 10.1% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vegas: 36.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

      Vegas: 36.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

    • Seattle: 35.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      Seattle: 32.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vegas: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

      Vegas: 32.4% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

    • Seattle: 29.2% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

      Seattle: 32.7% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vegas: 51.7 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

      Vegas: 45.5 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

    • Seattle: 62.9 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Seattle: 65.7 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

    • Seattle: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

      Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vegas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Seattle: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6028th of 32

      Seattle: 0.79 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vegas: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Vegas: −0.60 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

    • Seattle: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Seattle: +1.46 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vegas: 78.8 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      Vegas: 76.4 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

    • Seattle: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      Seattle: 87.8 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vegas: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)27th of 32Vegas: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 79 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 19.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

    • Seattle: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 71 (100 is league average)28th of 32Seattle: 18.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vegas: hit score 93 (100 is league average)24th of 32Vegas: 24.4 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Vegas: hit score 80 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 24.0 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Seattle: hit score 87 (100 is league average)28th of 32Seattle: 22.9 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 80 (100 is league average)27th of 32Seattle: 24.4 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vegas: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Vegas: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

    • Seattle: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

      Seattle: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vegas: 8.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

      Vegas: 10.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play5th of 32

    • Seattle: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      Seattle: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vegas: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 3.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • Seattle: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Seattle: 5.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Vegas: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vegas: 0.28 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 1.33 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

    • Seattle: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Seattle: 0.33 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Seattle is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vegas Golden Knights

Seattle Kraken

Worth knowing

  • Vegas R. Andersson is no longer killing penalties: 2% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, down from 48% last season.

Who Seattle is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Seattle group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vegas’s, named in each box.

Vegas’s lines tonightL1 Stone · Barbashev · EichelL2 Karlsson · Marner · HowdenL3 Hertl · Olofsson · ConnellyL4 Dowd · Gatcomb · Bowman

Seattle forward lines against Vegas forward lines

  • L1Eberle · Stephenson · McMannVGK L127%VGK L23%VGK L329%VGK L442%
  • L2McCann · Beniers · SamoskevichVGK L128%VGK L212%VGK L332%VGK L428%
  • L3Kakko · Wright · CattonVGK L146%VGK L210%VGK L323%VGK L422%
  • L4Gaudreau · Douglas · WintertonVGK L115%VGK L260%VGK L313%VGK L413%

Seattle defense pairs against Vegas forward lines

  • P1Montour · EvansVGK L133%VGK L217%VGK L315%VGK L435%
  • P2Larsson · DunnVGK L128%VGK L218%VGK L334%VGK L420%
  • P3Lindgren · OttavainenVGK L122%VGK L227%VGK L328%VGK L422%

Based on 1 Seattle home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vegas power play against Seattle penalty kill

  • Vegas power play

    8.9 expected goals per 60 · 2nd of 32

  • Seattle penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 27th of 32

Vegas power play

PP174% of the time

Creates 8.4 expected goals per 60

  • S. TheodoreQuarterback
  • J. Eichel
  • T. HertlTrigger
  • M. StoneDistributor
  • M. Marner

PP225% of the time

Creates 7.2 expected goals per 60

  • R. AnderssonQuarterback
  • V. Olofsson
  • B. BowmanTrigger
  • W. Karlsson
  • T. Connelly

 

Where Vegas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Seattle penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

C. Hart18 starts · 468 shots, this season and last

−3.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.959 242 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 176 shots
High-danger save %
.600 50 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.21
Quality starts
61%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. DaccordP. Grubauer

J. Daccord46 starts · 1367 shots, this season and last

+3.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.969 753 shots
Medium-danger save %
.864 440 shots
High-danger save %
.684 174 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.43
Quality starts
57%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −3.0 goals saved above expected in 18 starts
    • J. Daccord: +3.2 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Daccord: 29.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0.21 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Daccord: 0.43 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 61% of the time
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 57% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart2 starts · 46 shots, this season

−1.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 25 shots
Medium-danger save %
.722 18 shots
High-danger save %
.667 3 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. DaccordP. Grubauer

J. Daccord2 starts · 58 shots, this season

+2.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.972 36 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 17 shots
High-danger save %
.800 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −1.3 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Daccord: +2.9 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 23.5 shots faced per 60
    • J. Daccord: 29.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Daccord: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 50% of the time
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 100% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VegasSeattleLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.1%56.5%
  • Power play21.4%18.6%
  • Rebound10%9.3%
  • Empty net4.8%7.2%
  • Off a turnover4%5.9%
  • Goalie pulled3.7%2.1%
  • Shorthanded2.8%0.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%0%

351 Vegas goals and 237 Seattle goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play45.5%69.2%
  • Power play27.3%15.4%
  • Rebound18.2%7.7%
  • Empty net9.1%0%
  • Off a turnover0%7.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

11 Vegas goals and 13 Seattle goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vegas Golden Knights · Seattle Kraken