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FLA

Florida Panthers

1-0-2

LAK

Los Angeles Kings

0-1-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

10:00 PM ET · Crypto.com Arena

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Los Angeles

The Panthers already came to Los Angeles once this season and left with a 2-1 win. The Kings haven’t won in three. The Panthers are 2-0-2. Los Angeles has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. For Los Angeles, the difference could be keeping dangerous shots away.

The Panthers already came to Los Angeles once this season and left with a 2-1 win. The Kings haven’t won in three. The Panthers are 2-0-2. Los Angeles has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. For Florida, the difference could be keeping dangerous shots away.

It’s strength against strength: the Kings for shot volume, the Panthers at keeping shots away. The Panthers and the Kings sit at opposite ends for physicality.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themBrad Marchand has four goals in six games against Los Angeles since 2023-24.
  • Haunts themArtemi Panarin has five goals in eight games against Florida since 2023-24, most of them with the Rangers.
  • MissingAaron Ekblad has missed the Panthers’ last two games.
  • Slow startSam Reinhart is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. Best against best

    The Kings are near the top of the league for shot volume, and the Panthers are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We think the Panthers win this one.

    The call The Panthers keep the Kings under the league-average 56.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Los Angeles 7th for shot volume (60.3 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Florida 2nd for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. Bruisers against finesse

    On physicality, Florida is the league’s best and Los Angeles is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Panthers hit more than the Kings in the close stretches of the game.

    Physicality: Florida 1st, Los Angeles 27th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Florida and Los Angeles play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Florida PanthersLos Angeles KingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Florida, 2 for Los Angeles. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Florida: 56.6 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

      Florida: 55.2 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

    • Los Angeles: 60.3 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Los Angeles: 59.3 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Florida: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      Florida: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

    • Los Angeles: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

      Los Angeles: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

      Florida: 8.5% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

      Los Angeles: 10.9% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      Florida: 1.9% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 6.6% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

      Los Angeles: 14.4% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Florida: 31.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Florida: 32.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 30.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen31st of 32

      Los Angeles: 30.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Florida: 29.9% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Florida: 25.9% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

      Los Angeles: 35.9% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Florida: 50.7 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 39.3 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

    • Los Angeles: 55.1 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

      Los Angeles: 50.0 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Florida: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Florida: a 4.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

    • Los Angeles: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

      Los Angeles: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against19th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Florida: 0.36 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Los Angeles: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Los Angeles: 0.62 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Florida: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

      Florida: +0.43 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

    • Los Angeles: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32

      Los Angeles: −3.84 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Florida: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Florida: 62.7 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

    • Los Angeles: 82.2 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

      Los Angeles: 82.5 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Florida: forecheck score 145 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 32.2 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 173 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 41.5 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

    • Los Angeles: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)10th of 32Los Angeles: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

      Los Angeles: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)6th of 32Los Angeles: 28.4 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Florida: hit score 144 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 36.2 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 170 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 47.1 hits recorded per 601st of 32

    • Los Angeles: hit score 88 (100 is league average)27th of 32Los Angeles: 22.2 hits recorded per 6029th of 32

      Los Angeles: hit score 77 (100 is league average)28th of 32Los Angeles: 20.5 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Florida: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Florida: 40.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 40.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

      Los Angeles: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Florida: 8.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

      Florida: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play27th of 32

      Los Angeles: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Florida: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Florida: 10.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Los Angeles: 7.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Florida: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      Florida: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Los Angeles: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Florida: 0.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6017th of 32

      Florida: 0.62 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 0.03 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

      Los Angeles: 0.49 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Los Angeles is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Florida Panthers

Los Angeles Kings

Who Los Angeles is likely to send against whom

Los Angeles has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Florida power play against Los Angeles penalty kill

  • Florida power play

    8.0 expected goals per 60 · 9th of 32

  • Los Angeles penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 11th of 32

Florida power play

PP168% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • S. JonesQuarterback
  • M. Tkachukboth unitsDistributor
  • S. ReinhartTrigger
  • B. Tkachuk
  • A. Barkov

PP231% of the time

Creates 7.4 expected goals per 60

  • A. EkbladQuarterback
  • M. Tkachukboth unitsDistributor
  • S. BennettTrigger
  • A. LundellNet-front
  • C. Verhaeghe

 

Where Florida’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Los Angeles penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Markstrom44 starts · 1148 shots, this season and last

−8.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 592 shots
Medium-danger save %
.847 404 shots
High-danger save %
.645 152 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
41%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidD. KuemperA. Forsberg

D. Kuemper48 starts · 1263 shots, this season and last

−7.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.968 616 shots
Medium-danger save %
.859 468 shots
High-danger save %
.687 179 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: −8.8 goals saved above expected in 44 starts
    • D. Kuemper: −7.4 goals saved above expected in 48 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 25.8 shots faced per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 25.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • D. Kuemper: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
    • D. Kuemper: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 41% of the time
    • D. Kuemper: a quality start 50% of the time

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Kuemper, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom2 starts · 35 shots, this season

+1.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 10 shots
High-danger save %
.818 11 shots
Shots faced per 60
16.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidD. KuemperA. Forsberg

D. Kuemper1 start · 29 shots, this season

−4.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.923 13 shots
Medium-danger save %
.600 10 shots
High-danger save %
.500 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.01
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: +1.9 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • D. Kuemper: −4.5 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 16.3 shots faced per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 29.3 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 9.1% chance of going in
    • D. Kuemper: the average shot he faces has a 9.9% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 1.01 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 61 seconds between shots
    • D. Kuemper: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 50% of the time
    • D. Kuemper: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Kuemper, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
FloridaLos AngelesLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54%61.4%
  • Power play20.6%17.2%
  • Rebound7.5%4.7%
  • Empty net5.6%4.3%
  • Off a turnover4.4%3.9%
  • Goalie pulled4%4.3%
  • Shorthanded2.4%3.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%0.9%

252 Florida goals and 233 Los Angeles goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%25%
  • Power play16.7%25%
  • Rebound16.7%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%12.5%
  • Goalie pulled16.7%12.5%
  • Shorthanded0%25%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

6 Florida goals and 8 Los Angeles goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Los Angeles Kings