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DAL

Dallas Stars

1-2-0

BUF

Buffalo Sabres

2-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 8

7:00 PM ET · KeyBank Center

The short version

Before the game

One power play bites, one doesn’t

The Sabres have won two in a row. The Stars are 1-2-0. Buffalo has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Dallas can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

The Sabres have won two in a row. The Stars are 1-2-0. Buffalo has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Dallas can pull it off if their penalty kill holds up.

The Stars and the Sabres sit at opposite ends for power play.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themJosh Norris has five goals in six games against Dallas since 2023-24, most of them with Ottawa.
  • Leads the wayMiro Heiskanen leads the Stars with two points.

  1. One power play bites, one doesn’t

    On the power play, Dallas is one of the league’s best and Buffalo is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates more per 60 than the Sabres’.

    Power play: Dallas 3rd, Buffalo 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  2. Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, Dallas is around the middle of the league and Buffalo is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Sabres’.

    Shots from defensemen: Dallas 15th, Buffalo 24th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Dallas and Buffalo play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Dallas StarsBuffalo SabresLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Dallas, 3 for Buffalo. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Dallas: 56.1 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Dallas: 63.1 shot attempts per 608th of 32

    • Buffalo: 56.4 shot attempts per 6015th of 32

      Buffalo: 55.8 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Dallas: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

      Dallas: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

    • Buffalo: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Buffalo: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      Dallas: 13.6% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

    • Buffalo: 9.9% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

      Buffalo: 9.3% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Dallas: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

      Dallas: 8.0% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

    • Buffalo: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

      Buffalo: 4.2% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Dallas: 35.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      Dallas: 35.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

    • Buffalo: 33.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

      Buffalo: 31.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Dallas: 32.9% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

      Dallas: 32.7% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

    • Buffalo: 31.1% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

      Buffalo: 36.2% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Dallas: 53.0 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

      Dallas: 48.5 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

    • Buffalo: 53.4 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

      Buffalo: 41.8 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Dallas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

    • Buffalo: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

      Buffalo: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Dallas: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Buffalo: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

      Buffalo: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Dallas: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      Dallas: +0.73 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

    • Buffalo: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

      Buffalo: −1.15 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Dallas: 74.7 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 72.8 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

    • Buffalo: 82.0 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

      Buffalo: 71.1 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Dallas: forecheck score 91 (100 is league average)21st of 32Dallas: 20.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)19th of 32Dallas: 22.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

    • Buffalo: forecheck score 91 (100 is league average)20th of 32Buffalo: 20.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

      Buffalo: forecheck score 83 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Buffalo: 19.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Dallas: hit score 92 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Dallas: 24.8 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Dallas: hit score 90 (100 is league average)20th of 32Dallas: 27.1 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Buffalo: hit score 88 (100 is league average)25th of 32Buffalo: 23.8 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Buffalo: hit score 82 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Buffalo: 24.3 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Dallas: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

      Dallas: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

    • Buffalo: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      Buffalo: 39.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Dallas: 8.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 9.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play5th of 32

    • Buffalo: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      Buffalo: 5.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Dallas: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Dallas: 3.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

    • Buffalo: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Buffalo: 4.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

    • Buffalo: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

      Buffalo: 1.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Dallas: 0.06 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

    • Buffalo: 0.09 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

      Buffalo: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Buffalo is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Dallas Stars

Buffalo Sabres

Worth knowing

  • Buffalo J. Norris has started killing penalties: on the ice for 41% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 1% last season.
  • Buffalo Z. Metsa has started killing penalties: on the ice for 46% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 7% last season.

Who Buffalo is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Buffalo group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Dallas’s, named in each box.

Dallas’s lines tonightL1 Rantanen · Steel · JohnstonL2 Benn · Hintz · RobertsonL3 Seguin · Hryckowian · HyryL4 Faksa · Bäck · Kiviranta

Buffalo forward lines against Dallas forward lines

  • L1Quinn · Ostlund · BensonDAL L140%DAL L235%DAL L38%DAL L417%
  • L2Thompson · Norris · DoanDAL L118%DAL L244%DAL L330%DAL L48%
  • L3Krebs · Kulich · HeleniusDAL L124%DAL L28%DAL L331%DAL L437%
  • L4Malenstyn · Danforth · McLeodDAL L120%DAL L215%DAL L346%DAL L419%

Buffalo defense pairs against Dallas forward lines

  • P1Samuelsson · DahlinDAL L134%DAL L225%DAL L323%DAL L418%
  • P2Power · ZellwegerDAL L123%DAL L234%DAL L328%DAL L414%
  • P3Crevier · MetsaDAL L111%DAL L226%DAL L325%DAL L438%

Based on 2 Buffalo home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Dallas power play against Buffalo penalty kill

  • Dallas power play

    8.8 expected goals per 60 · 3rd of 32

  • Buffalo penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 11th of 32

Dallas power play

PP169% of the time

Creates 8.6 expected goals per 60

  • M. HeiskanenQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsDistributor
  • J. Robertson
  • W. JohnstonTrigger
  • R. HintzNet-front

PP231% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • T. HarleyQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsTrigger
  • J. HryckowianNet-front
  • T. SeguinNet-front
  • J. Benn

 

Where Dallas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Buffalo penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Oettinger54 starts · 1407 shots, this season and last

+9.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 740 shots
Medium-danger save %
.858 466 shots
High-danger save %
.716 201 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
61%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithU. LuukkonenC. Ellis

U. Luukkonen36 starts · 968 shots, this season and last

+7.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.978 492 shots
Medium-danger save %
.871 342 shots
High-danger save %
.716 134 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
61%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +9.8 goals saved above expected in 54 starts
    • U. Luukkonen: +7.6 goals saved above expected in 36 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 25.5 shots faced per 60
    • U. Luukkonen: 27.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • U. Luukkonen: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • U. Luukkonen: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
    • U. Luukkonen: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 61% of the time
    • U. Luukkonen: a quality start 61% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

U. Luukkonen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger2 starts · 35 shots, this season

+2.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 20 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 8 shots
High-danger save %
.714 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
17.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithU. LuukkonenC. Ellis

U. Luukkonen2 starts · 37 shots, this season

−3.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
.733 15 shots
High-danger save %
.500 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
18.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +2.1 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • U. Luukkonen: −3.5 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 17.8 shots faced per 60
    • U. Luukkonen: 18.6 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 8.5% chance of going in
    • U. Luukkonen: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • U. Luukkonen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • U. Luukkonen: a typical wait of 146 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time
    • U. Luukkonen: a quality start 0% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

U. Luukkonen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
DallasBuffaloLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.4%59.9%
  • Power play26.5%17.1%
  • Rebound7.1%3.9%
  • Empty net4.1%9.3%
  • Off a turnover2%4.5%
  • Goalie pulled3.7%1.5%
  • Shorthanded1.4%2.7%
  • Off a faceoff win2.7%1.2%

294 Dallas goals and 334 Buffalo goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play83.3%80%
  • Power play0%0%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover16.7%10%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%10%

6 Dallas goals and 10 Buffalo goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Dallas Stars · Buffalo Sabres