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SEA

Seattle Kraken

2-2-0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

1-2-0

Has last change

Friday, October 9

7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Red Wings aren’t Daccord’s kryptonite

The Kraken come in at 2-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-2-0. Detroit has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Seattle’s way back in is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Kraken come in at 2-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-2-0. Detroit has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Seattle’s best way through is keeping dangerous shots away.

Don’t read much into Daccord’s record against the Red Wings. The Red Wings’ power play has a soft target in the Kraken’s kill.

Who to watch

  • Owns themAlex DeBrincat has a point in six straight games against Seattle.
  • Hot streakJordan Eberle has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Red Wings aren’t Daccord’s kryptonite

    Daccord has been shaky against the Red Wings since 2023-24, well below his usual. It looks like a pattern, but across three seasons a goalie’s record against one team told us nothing about the next meeting. Expect the usual Daccord.

    The call If Daccord starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .911 than to his .870 against the Red Wings.

    6 starts against Detroit: .870 save percentage · .911 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 6 against Detroit, 4,103 shots against everyone else

  2. Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

    The Red Wings’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Kraken’s kill is one of the league’s worst. The Kraken need to stay out of the box.

    The call The Red Wings’ power play creates at least their usual 8.6 expected goals per 60.

    Detroit 4th for power play (8.6 expected goals per 60) · Seattle 28th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Seattle and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Seattle KrakenDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Seattle, 3 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Seattle: 52.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

      Seattle: 53.3 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

    • Detroit: 57.2 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 58.7 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Seattle: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

      Detroit: 12.3% of chances come from rebounds12th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Seattle: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

      Seattle: 8.3% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

      Detroit: 8.8% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Seattle: 34.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

      Seattle: 31.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen28th of 32

    • Detroit: 33.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Detroit: 33.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Seattle: 29.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Seattle: 32.8% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

    • Detroit: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Detroit: 36.8% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Seattle: 63.4 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Seattle: 66.4 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

    • Detroit: 55.9 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 46.2 shot attempts allowed per 604th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Seattle: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      Detroit: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Seattle: 0.45 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

      Seattle: 0.92 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.45 defensive breakdowns per 6017th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Seattle: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

      Seattle: +0.56 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.16 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

      Detroit: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Seattle: 83.0 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

      Seattle: 86.0 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

    • Detroit: 81.2 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

      Detroit: 74.8 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Seattle: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 74 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 107 (100 is league average)9th of 32Detroit: 23.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 134 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Detroit: 31.7 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Seattle: hit score 86 (100 is league average)25th of 32Seattle: 22.7 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 79 (100 is league average)26th of 32Seattle: 23.7 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32Detroit: 27.2 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 128 (100 is league average)4th of 32Detroit: 37.0 hits recorded per 604th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Seattle: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

      Seattle: 44.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

    • Detroit: 40.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

      Detroit: 38.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Seattle: 6.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play27th of 32

      Seattle: 5.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

    • Detroit: 8.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 8.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Seattle: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Seattle: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

    • Detroit: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Detroit: 0.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Seattle: 0.07 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

      Seattle: 0.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Seattle Kraken

Detroit Red Wings

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Seattle’s, named in each box.

Seattle’s lines tonightL1 Eberle · Stephenson · McMannL2 Kakko · Wright · CattonL3 McCann · Beniers · SamoskevichL4 Gaudreau · Winterton · Meyers

Detroit forward lines against Seattle forward lines

  • L1DeBrincat · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdSEA L140%SEA L237%SEA L323%SEA L40%
  • L2Copp · Kolesar · RasmussenSEA L129%SEA L227%SEA L333%SEA L411%
  • L3Larkin · Arvidsson · RaymondSEA L126%SEA L228%SEA L346%SEA L40%
  • L4Compher · Appleton · DanielsonSEA L140%SEA L233%SEA L327%SEA L40%

Detroit defense pairs against Seattle forward lines

  • P1Seider · JohanssonSEA L142%SEA L222%SEA L328%SEA L48%
  • P2Faulk · JohanssonSEA L139%SEA L232%SEA L326%SEA L42%
  • P3Chiarot · Sandin-PellikkaSEA L118%SEA L241%SEA L338%SEA L43%

Based on 3 Detroit home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Seattle power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • Seattle power play

    6.9 expected goals per 60 · 27th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

Seattle power play

PP156% of the time

Creates 5.5 expected goals per 60

  • B. MontourQuarterback
  • B. Catton
  • K. KakkoNet-front
  • M. BeniersTrigger
  • S. Wright

PP244% of the time

Creates 7.9 expected goals per 60

  • V. DunnQuarterback
  • J. McCannDistributor
  • J. EberleTrigger
  • B. McMann
  • C. Stephenson

 

Where Seattle’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Daccord47 starts · 1388 shots, this season and last

+0.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.970 764 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 446 shots
High-danger save %
.674 178 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.44
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerJ. Gibson

J. Gibson58 starts · 1533 shots, this season and last

+17.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 763 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 556 shots
High-danger save %
.715 214 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.5 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • J. Gibson: +17.9 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 0.44 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 55% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 50% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord3 starts · 79 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 47 shots
Medium-danger save %
.913 23 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.13
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerJ. Gibson

J. Gibson3 starts · 72 shots, this season

+0.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 33 shots
Medium-danger save %
.897 29 shots
High-danger save %
.600 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
33%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Gibson: +0.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 24.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.5% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 1.13 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 93 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 89 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 33% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
SeattleDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.5%53.7%
  • Power play18.8%23.2%
  • Rebound9.2%4.1%
  • Empty net7.1%8.9%
  • Off a turnover5.9%4.9%
  • Goalie pulled2.1%2.4%
  • Shorthanded0.4%1.2%
  • Off a faceoff win0%1.6%

239 Seattle goals and 246 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%42.9%
  • Power play20%28.6%
  • Rebound6.7%0%
  • Empty net0%14.3%
  • Off a turnover6.7%14.3%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

15 Seattle goals and 7 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Seattle Kraken · Detroit Red Wings