Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-3-2

BOS

Boston Bruins

3-2-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

1:00 PM ET · TD Garden

The short version

How it looks for Philadelphia

A genuine toss-up

Philadelphia has had more of the chances over recent games and Boston has home ice. For Philadelphia, the difference could be a power play that gets going.

How it looks for Boston

Nothing to separate these two

Philadelphia has had more of the chances over recent games and Boston has home ice. Boston can tip it if they keep shots to a minimum.

From this site’s win model, which rates each team on how well they have controlled the chances lately, who is in their lineup (including the league’s injury news), home ice and rest. We don’t publish the number before the game; the post-game page shows it and what went into it.

  1. The Bruins will hunt a mismatch

    At home, the Bruins have sent Peterka’s line (Peterka, Khusnutdinov and Minten) out against opponents’ third lines 41% of the time, when no line matching would give about 27%. That’s Marco Sturm chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Flyers’ third line is Bunting, Acciari and Cates.

    The call The Bruins’ L2 (Peterka, Khusnutdinov and Minten) spends at least 41% of its 5-on-5 time against the Flyers’ third line.

    Who plays against whom · Boston home games this season · 3 games, 31 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. In close against from distance

    On shots from in close, Philadelphia ranks 16th in the league and Boston ranks 29th. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Flyers take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Bruins.

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

Worth knowing

  • Philadelphia The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 5 games cover only 25% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the lowest share in the league (a typical team: 53%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Boston C. McAvoy has not played this season. M. Lohrei is in his usual spot beside J. Aspirot, up from third-pair minutes last season. That pair is getting 15:08 a game at 5-on-5, up from 12:59 with McAvoy. W. Borgen has moved into Lohrei’s old spot beside H. Lindholm.

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Philadelphia and Boston play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Philadelphia FlyersBoston BruinsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Philadelphia, 5 for Boston. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Philadelphia: 46.0 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

      Philadelphia: 42.8 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

    • Boston: 53.9 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

      Boston: 51.3 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

    • Boston: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

      Boston: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Philadelphia: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 14.9% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

    • Boston: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

      Boston: 1.6% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Philadelphia: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

      Philadelphia: 1.2% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

    • Boston: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Boston: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Philadelphia: 32.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

      Philadelphia: 31.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

    • Boston: 32.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Boston: 31.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Philadelphia: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Philadelphia: 25.0% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

    • Boston: 29.0% of shots come from within 20 feet29th of 32

      Boston: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Philadelphia: 61.7 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

      Philadelphia: 73.5 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

    • Boston: 58.4 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      Boston: 57.5 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against14th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

    • Boston: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      Boston: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Philadelphia: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.78 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

    • Boston: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Boston: 0.49 defensive breakdowns per 6019th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Philadelphia: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

      Philadelphia: +0.46 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

    • Boston: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

      Boston: +0.83 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Philadelphia: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

      Philadelphia: 82.0 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

    • Boston: 82.7 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

      Boston: 80.7 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Philadelphia: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)28th of 32Philadelphia: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Philadelphia: forecheck score 68 (100 is league average)31st of 32Philadelphia: 16.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

    • Boston: forecheck score 90 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Boston: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

      Boston: forecheck score 80 (100 is league average)26th of 32Boston: 20.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Philadelphia: hit score 111 (100 is league average)8th of 32Philadelphia: 28.8 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      Philadelphia: hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 32Philadelphia: 30.5 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Boston: hit score 107 (100 is league average)11th of 32Boston: 29.4 hits recorded per 607th of 32

      Boston: hit score 103 (100 is league average)16th of 32Boston: 31.6 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Philadelphia: 43.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

      Philadelphia: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

    • Boston: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

      Boston: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Philadelphia: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Philadelphia: 6.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

    • Boston: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

      Boston: 5.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Philadelphia: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 7.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

    • Boston: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Boston: 8.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Philadelphia: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

    • Boston: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Boston: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Philadelphia: 0.21 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

      Philadelphia: 1.18 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

    • Boston: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

      Boston: 0.40 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Boston is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Philadelphia Flyers

Boston Bruins

Who Boston is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Boston group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Philadelphia’s, named in each box.

Philadelphia keeps changing their forward lines, so the four named here (from their latest games) may not be the ones they send out tonight.

Philadelphia’s lines tonightL1 Dvorak · Tippett · ZegrasL2 Couturier · Konecny · MartoneL3 Bunting · Acciari · CatesL4 Foerster · Barkey · Michkov

Boston forward lines against Philadelphia forward lines

  • L1Pastrnak · Zacha · GeekiePHI L119%PHI L243%PHI L323%PHI L415%
  • L2Peterka · Khusnutdinov · MintenPHI L135%PHI L218%PHI L341%PHI L46%
  • L3Jeannot · Kastelic · PoitrasPHI L117%PHI L233%PHI L320%PHI L430%
  • L4Lindholm · Mittelstadt · HagensPHI L143%PHI L234%PHI L322%PHI L41%

Boston defense pairs against Philadelphia forward lines

  • P1Clifton · ZadorovPHI L137%PHI L231%PHI L322%PHI L410%
  • P2Lindholm · BorgenPHI L129%PHI L234%PHI L324%PHI L413%
  • P3Lohrei · BrunetPHI L119%PHI L231%PHI L336%PHI L415%

Based on 3 Boston home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Philadelphia power play against Boston penalty kill

  • Philadelphia power play

    7.6 expected goals per 60 · 11th of 32

  • Boston penalty kill

    7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 · 21st of 32

Philadelphia power play

PP172% of the time

Creates 7.3 expected goals per 60

  • J. DrysdaleQuarterback
  • M. MichkovNet-front
  • T. ZegrasTrigger
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor
  • T. Foerster

PP228% of the time

Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60

  • C. YorkQuarterback
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor
  • O. TippettTrigger
  • A. Bump
  • C. DvorakNet-front

 

Where Philadelphia’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Boston penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Woll41 starts · 1331 shots, this season and last

+3.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 699 shots
Medium-danger save %
.859 462 shots
High-danger save %
.694 170 shots
Shots faced per 60
33.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.27
Quality starts
66%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WollD. VladarJ. SwaymanM. DiPietro

J. Swayman58 starts · 1690 shots, this season and last

+33.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 860 shots
Medium-danger save %
.899 563 shots
High-danger save %
.753 267 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
72%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Woll: +3.6 goals saved above expected in 41 starts
    • J. Swayman: +33.4 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Woll: 33.1 shots faced per 60
    • J. Swayman: 29.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Woll: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Woll: 0.27 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Swayman: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Woll: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Woll: a quality start 66% of the time
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 72% of the time

J. Woll, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Woll3 starts · 110 shots, this season

+3.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.965 57 shots
Medium-danger save %
.925 40 shots
High-danger save %
.769 13 shots
Shots faced per 60
35.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WollD. VladarJ. SwaymanM. DiPietro

J. Swayman4 starts · 118 shots, this season

+4.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.968 63 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 38 shots
High-danger save %
.647 17 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Woll: +3.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Swayman: +4.8 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Woll: 35.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Swayman: 29.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Woll: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Woll: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Swayman: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Woll: a typical wait of 56 seconds between shots
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 64 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Woll: a quality start 100% of the time
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 75% of the time

J. Woll, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
PhiladelphiaBostonLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play59%57.6%
  • Power play15%19.3%
  • Rebound3.8%6.4%
  • Empty net8.6%5.4%
  • Off a turnover6.4%6.4%
  • Goalie pulled3.4%2%
  • Shorthanded2.6%1%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%1.7%

266 Philadelphia goals and 295 Boston goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%46.7%
  • Power play16.7%20%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%6.7%
  • Off a turnover0%20%
  • Goalie pulled16.7%6.7%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

6 Philadelphia goals and 15 Boston goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers · Boston Bruins