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PHI1

Philadelphia Flyers

OTT2

Ottawa Senators

Thursday, October 8

Final · Canadian Tire Centre

Our pre-game read

The win chance our model worked out before the game, kept off the site until now.

We gave Philadelphia only a 33% chance, and it went the way we feared.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice−4 points46%
Recent chances−14 points33%
Back-to-back0 points33%
Our chance for Philadelphia the morning of the game33%
Tonight's lineup−3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known29%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: whether the players who dressed were stronger or weaker than the team’s usual lineup. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

We gave Ottawa a 67% chance, and Ottawa delivered.

Two even teams on neutral ice50%
Home ice+4 points54%
Recent chances+14 points67%
Back-to-back0 points67%
Our chance for Ottawa the morning of the game67%
Tonight's lineup+3 points
At puck drop, once the lineups were known71%

Recent chances: how much better each team’s chances have been than their opponents’ lately, with the latest games counting most. Back-to-back: playing for the second night in a row. Tonight’s lineup: whether the players who dressed were stronger or weaker than the team’s usual lineup. Only earlier games went into it, and the preview hinted at it in words without showing the number.

What the preview said, and what happened

Of the 3 calls the preview made, 1 held up, 1 partly did, and 1 didn’t happen.

  1. Before the game

    Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Flyers have a hit score of 111 (6th in the league) and the Senators 122 (2nd), where 100 is league average after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 116.

    Partly

    The two teams’ combined hit score was 110, against their usual 116 (100 is league average, after adjusting for the arena’s scorer).

    hit score 116
    Coming in
    hit score 110
    In this game
    hit score 100
    League average

  2. Before the game

    Bring a pillow

    Philadelphia plays some of the league’s slowest games (31st for pace: 77.5 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams combined), and so does Ottawa (25th). We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 77.5 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Held up

    The game ran at 77.1 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams combined, against the slower team’s usual 77.5 and a league average of 81.5.

    77.5 per 60
    Coming in
    77.1 per 60
    In this game
    81.5 per 60
    League average

  3. Before the game

    The Senators lock it down; the Flyers don’t

    The Senators are 6th in the league for shot suppression, at the stingy end; the Flyers are 31st, at the porous end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Senators allow fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Flyers.

    Didn’t happen

    On 5-on-5 shot attempts allowed per 60, Ottawa had 66.6 per 60 and Philadelphia 48.8 per 60. Coming in, Ottawa was at 52.7 per 60 and Philadelphia at 62.4 per 60.

    OTT 52.7 per 60 · PHI 62.4 per 60
    Coming in
    OTT 66.6 per 60 · PHI 48.8 per 60
    In this game

Each call is checked by a rule set before the game. Held up: the team reached their usual level. Partly: they fell short of their usual level but still beat the league average. When a call says one team will come out ahead, held up means they won by at least half their usual gap, and partly means they won by less. One game is a small sample, so a miss doesn’t mean the preview was wrong about the team.

Read the full preview as it stood at puck drop.

This season so far: 85 held up, 11 partly, 63 didn’t happen, out of 159 graded calls. See the track record.

Run it back

We replayed this game’s chances 100 times. Here is how often each team came out ahead.

Philadelphia usually wins this one

Played out 100 times with these chances, Philadelphia wins 67. The goals went the other way.

67%
Philadelphia: 58 wins, plus half of the 17 ties
33%
Ottawa: 24 wins, plus half of the 17 ties

Philadelphia had 35 chances worth 3.2 expected goals. Ottawa had 34 chances worth 2.3 expected goals.

How it works: every shot in regulation that was on target or missed the net goes in as often as our expected-goals model says it should, and the game is played out 100 times that way. A rebound scramble counts as one chance, and empty-net shots are left out. A replay tied after regulation counts as half a win each, since overtime and shootouts are close to coin flips.

It doesn’t know about goalies, finishing skill or passes before a shot. It also favours the team that was chasing, because a team with a lead tends to sit back. Over the last three seasons, teams it gave 80% or more won about two games in three.

What the preview didn’t see coming

The parts of this game furthest from how these teams usually play, biggest first.

Broke the pattern: a team did the opposite of their usual habit. Further than usual: a usual habit, taken much further. Closer than usual: a usual strength or weakness that mostly disappeared. Out of character: a usually average team, far from average. Each is measured against the teams’ numbers before the game.

The numbers

How the game went, beyond the score.

PhiladelphiaOttawa
Goals12
Shots on goal2926
Expected goals3.32.3
Shot attempts at 5-on-54734
Power plays1 of 31 of 5

Swing

How far each player swung tonight’s result, for his team or against it.

The biggest swings: T. Foerster +1.0, J. Drysdale +0.9 and T. Konecny +0.8.

Showhighlighting

The number is roughly in goals: what he added to his team tonight, or cost it. Tap a player to see where it came from. The label beside it is his report card from “Did they do their job?” below; L1 to L4 and P1 to P3 are tonight’s lines and pairs.

How Swing is worked outHide how Swing is worked out

Scoresheet: each goal is shared 40% to the scorer, 35% to the first assist and 25% to the second, plus a quarter of the expected goals of his own shots. A penalty drawn adds 0.16 and one taken costs 0.16, what a power play is worth on average; each faceoff won or lost moves it by 0.006.

5-on-5 counts most: expected goals for minus against with him on, half compared with league average (adjusted for score and venue) and half compared with his own team when he was on the bench, plus a smaller amount for actual goals. A player on a losing team can score well if his line held its own. Special teams: power-play and penalty-kill time compared with a league-average unit.

Company kept (counted inside 5-on-5): from every player’s 5-on-5 impact over the two seasons before, a player out with strong linemates against weak opponents gives a little back, and the reverse earns a little. Goalies: goals saved above expected. Empty-net shots and shootouts are left out. One game is a small sample: this says who swung this result, not who is better.

Did they do their job?

What each player is relied on for or better than most at, and whether he delivered.

Show
  • J. DrysdaleDid his job
    Defense
    23:15
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.2–0.3
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play7.9typical 6.9
  • T. SanheimDid his job
    Defense
    22:42
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    1.4–0.8
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill6.1typical 6.5
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-54.4typical 2.2
  • T. ZegrasOff night
    Center
    19:25
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.2
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play13.3typical 7.0
    • ✕Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-52.0typical 2.4
  • C. YorkRough night

    No points, and 78% of the 5-on-5 chances went the other way with him on.

    Defense
    18:17
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.9
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill3.6typical 6.4
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-54.2typical 2.2
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots2typical 1
  • O. TippettDid his job
    Right wing
    17:21
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.5–0.2
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play6.8typical 6.8
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 4
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.8typical 2.2
  • S. CouturierMixed night
    Center
    17:11
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.5
    Shots
    4
    Hits
    4
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill6.0typical 6.6
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won5 of 11typical 56%
    • ✓Creating chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 with him on at 5-on-55.0typical 2.2
Show 11 more Philadelphia playersHide the other Philadelphia players
  • T. KonecnyDid his job
    Right wing
    17:04
    G
    0
    A
    1
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.9–0.3
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play13.6typical 6.6
  • N. SeelerOff night
    Defense
    16:53
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill2.8typical 6.1
    • ✕Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots0typical 2
    • ✕Hitting Better than mosthits0typical 1
  • T. FoersterDid his job
    Right wing
    16:33
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.1
    Shots
    3
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play15.1typical 7.1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill2.6typical 6.4
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.4typical 2.2
  • C. DvorakOff night
    Center
    16:02
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.3
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill1.7typical 6.8
    • ✕Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won3 of 10typical 54%
    • ✕Getting to dangerous spots Better than mostexpected goals from his own shots at 5-on-50.01typical 0.11
  • M. MichkovDid his job
    Right wing
    15:20
    G
    1
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.4–0.3
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✓Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play13.7typical 7.0
  • S. BenoitDid his job
    Defense
    13:56
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.2
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    3
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill5.1typical 7.2
    • ✓Hitting Better than mosthits3typical 2
  • N. AcciariDid his job
    Center
    12:29
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    −1
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.6
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    2
    Blocks
    1
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill6.5typical 6.6
    • ✓Blocking shots Better than mostblocked shots1typical 1
    • ✓Faceoffs Better than mostfaceoffs won5 of 8typical 54%
  • P. MartoneOff night
    Right wing
    12:24
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    1.0–0.4
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.2typical 6.7
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-52.6typical 2.4
  • N. CatesMixed night
    Left wing
    11:50
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.3–0.5
    Shots
    1
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    2
    • ✓Kills penalties Relied onexpected goals per 60 allowed on the penalty kill1.8typical 5.7
    • ✕Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-53.1typical 2.0
    • ✓Faceoffs Relied onfaceoffs won7 of 8typical 49%
  • D. BarkeyDid his job
    Center
    11:50
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.1
    Shots
    0
    Hits
    0
    Blocks
    1
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.5typical 7.0
    • ✓Preventing chances at 5-on-5 Better than mostexpected goals per 60 allowed with him on at 5-on-50.4typical 2.0
  • M. BuntingDid his job
    Left wing
    10:56
    G
    0
    A
    0
    +/−
    0
    xGF–xGA
    0.1–0.4
    Shots
    2
    Hits
    1
    Blocks
    0
    • ✕Power play Relied onexpected goals per 60 on the power play2.3typical 5.9
    • ✓Shooting Better than mostshot attempts at 5-on-54typical 2
How the cards are gradedHide how the cards are graded

✓ a typical night for him in the ice time he got (the level he reaches in about half his games). ≈ beat an average player at his position, a typical power play or kill, or his own team with him off the ice. ✕ neither. Power-play and penalty-kill results count half, since five players share them.

Huge night: a hat trick or four or more points. Big night: two or more points, or a goal from a player who scores in fewer than one game in five on top of doing his jobs. Rough night: no points while the other team had 70% or more of the 5-on-5 chances with him on (xGF–xGA). Plus-minus never sets the level. A shorthanded goal counts as two points. Points never fully cover for jobs that went badly: with his jobs off, a huge night reads big and a big night reads mixed.

Judged only from games before this one; 5-on-5 rates adjusted for score and venue. One game is a small sample: even a strong player misses a typical night about half the time. Both teams: 36 ✓, 4 ≈, 34 ✕.

Somewhere new

Things they aren’t known for, far beyond their usual pace.

A night this big would happen less than one game in fifty at his usual pace, and is at least twice what an average player at his position would manage.

In net

Each goalie’s night: the goals he stopped beyond what the shots were worth, and the dangerous and routine saves.

  • J. WollDid his job
    Goalie
    58:15
    Shots
    26
    Saves
    24
    Sv%
    .923
    xGA
    2.3
    GSAx
    +0.3
    Dangerous
    3/3
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+0.3typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance3 of 3typically saves 2 of 3
    • ✕Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance21 of 23typically saves 22 of 23
  • L. UllmarkBig night

    28 saves on 29 shots, +2.3 goals saved above expected.

    Goalie
    60:00
    Shots
    29
    Saves
    28
    Sv%
    .966
    xGA
    3.3
    GSAx
    +2.3
    Dangerous
    3/4
    • ✓Saving more than expected goals saved above expected+2.3typical +0.2
    • ✓Dangerous shots saves on shots with a 15%+ chance3 of 4typically saves 3 of 4
    • ✓Routine shots saves on shots under a 15% chance25 of 25typically saves 24 of 25

Every goalie has the same three jobs, judged against his own earlier starts (✓) and an average goalie (≈). Huge night: a shutout on 25 or more shots, or 3+ goals saved above expected. Big night: any other shutout, or 1.5+. Rough night: 2+ goals worse than expected, or pulled early after three or more.

Empty-net shots are left out. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie beaten by cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really was.

Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers · Ottawa Senators