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EDM

Edmonton Oilers

3-0-1

LAK

Los Angeles Kings

0-2-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

10:30 PM ET · Crypto.com Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Oilers’ power play outclasses the Kings’

The Kings haven’t won in three. The Oilers have won three straight. Edmonton has had more of the chances over recent games, Edmonton will be without Hyman, and Los Angeles has home ice. Los Angeles can pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Kings haven’t won in three. The Oilers have won three straight. Edmonton has had more of the chances over recent games, Edmonton will be without Hyman, and Los Angeles has home ice. Los Angeles can make it interesting if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Oilers and the Kings sit at opposite ends for power play.

Who to watch

  • Old teamMathieu Joseph faces his old team, Los Angeles.
  • Owns themLeon Draisaitl has a point in six straight games against Los Angeles, and 14 points in his last eight against them.
  • Hot streakConnor McDavid has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakVasily Podkolzin has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Oilers’ power play outclasses the Kings’

    The Oilers are the league’s best for the power play, at the lethal end; the Kings are near the bottom of the league, at the harmless end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Oilers’ power play creates more per 60 than the Kings’.

    Power play: Edmonton 1st, Los Angeles 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

  2. Active D against forward-led

    The Oilers are near the top of the league for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Kings are the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Oilers’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Kings’.

    Shots from defensemen: Edmonton 9th, Los Angeles 32nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Edmonton and Los Angeles play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Edmonton OilersLos Angeles KingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Edmonton, 3 for Los Angeles. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Edmonton: 56.5 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

      Edmonton: 56.7 shot attempts per 6015th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 57.9 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

      Los Angeles: 54.2 shot attempts per 6020th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Edmonton: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

      Edmonton: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

    • Los Angeles: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

      Los Angeles: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Edmonton: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

      Edmonton: 5.5% of chances come from rebounds28th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds27th of 32

      Los Angeles: 9.3% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Edmonton: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

      Edmonton: 7.1% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 6.6% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

      Los Angeles: 12.5% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Edmonton: 35.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen9th of 32

      Edmonton: 33.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 29.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen32nd of 32

      Los Angeles: 28.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen32nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Edmonton: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

      Edmonton: 26.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

      Los Angeles: 33.0% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Edmonton: 53.8 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

      Edmonton: 49.9 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 56.1 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

      Los Angeles: 55.6 shot attempts allowed per 6017th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Edmonton: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

      Edmonton: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

    • Los Angeles: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against3rd of 32

      Los Angeles: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against3rd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Edmonton: 0.45 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

      Edmonton: 0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

      Los Angeles: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6017th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Edmonton: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

      Edmonton: −1.47 goals saved above expected per 6030th of 32

    • Los Angeles: +0.03 goals saved above expected per 6029th of 32

      Los Angeles: −2.40 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Edmonton: 80.1 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Edmonton: 74.8 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

      Los Angeles: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Edmonton: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)7th of 32Edmonton: 26.0 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

      Edmonton: forecheck score 125 (100 is league average)6th of 32Edmonton: 32.5 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

    • Los Angeles: forecheck score 106 (100 is league average)10th of 32Los Angeles: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

      Los Angeles: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)8th of 32Los Angeles: 27.3 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Edmonton: hit score 110 (100 is league average)8th of 32Edmonton: 30.6 hits recorded per 604th of 32

      Edmonton: hit score 132 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Edmonton: 41.0 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

    • Los Angeles: hit score 85 (100 is league average)26th of 32Los Angeles: 21.9 hits recorded per 6029th of 32

      Los Angeles: hit score 75 (100 is league average)27th of 32Los Angeles: 20.2 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Edmonton: 40.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

      Edmonton: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

      Los Angeles: 39.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Edmonton: 9.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

      Edmonton: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      Los Angeles: 6.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Edmonton: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Edmonton: 6.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Los Angeles: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Edmonton: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Edmonton: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Los Angeles: 2.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Edmonton: 0.04 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

      Edmonton: 0.99 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

    • Los Angeles: 0.06 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

      Los Angeles: 0.33 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Los Angeles is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Edmonton Oilers

Los Angeles Kings

Worth knowing

  • Edmonton Z. Hyman has been a scratch for the last 4 games. He is a top-six forward.
  • Edmonton R. Nugent-Hopkins is out and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.
  • Edmonton M. Savoie is out another eight weeks (lower body injury) and has not played this season. L. Draisaitl has taken his spot beside C. McDavid and V. Podkolzin.
  • Edmonton K. Kapanen has started playing on the power play: on the ice for 56% of the team’s power-play time in 4 games, up from 6% last season.
  • Los Angeles M. Zuccarello is out week to week, reported after he played in their last game. He is a top-six forward.

Who Los Angeles is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Los Angeles group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Edmonton’s, named in each box.

Edmonton’s lines tonightL1 Draisaitl · McDavid · PodkolzinL2 Joseph · Formenton · MichaelsL3 Kapanen · Jones · DachL4 Frederic · Howard · Samanski

Los Angeles forward lines against Edmonton forward lines

  • L1Kempe · Panarin · ByfieldEDM L126%EDM L212%EDM L337%EDM L425%
  • L2Zuccarello · Turcotte · LaferriereEDM L139%EDM L217%EDM L326%EDM L418%
  • L3Haula · Armia · MooreEDM L139%EDM L243%EDM L311%EDM L47%
  • L4EDM L1–EDM L2–EDM L3–EDM L4–

Los Angeles defense pairs against Edmonton forward lines

  • P1Gustafsson · ClarkeEDM L118%EDM L238%EDM L327%EDM L418%
  • P2Doughty · DumoulinEDM L146%EDM L212%EDM L330%EDM L412%
  • P3Ceci · AndersonEDM L136%EDM L226%EDM L320%EDM L418%

Based on 1 Los Angeles home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Edmonton power play against Los Angeles penalty kill

  • Edmonton power play

    9.5 expected goals per 60 · 1st of 32

  • Los Angeles penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 9th of 32

Edmonton power play

PP168% of the time

Creates 8.4 expected goals per 60

  • E. BouchardQuarterback
  • L. DraisaitlDistributor
  • C. McDavidTrigger
  • V. PodkolzinNet-front
  • K. Kapanen

PP232% of the time

Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60

  • J. WalmanQuarterback
  • I. Howard
  • T. Frederic
  • R. Shea
  • C. Dach

 

Where Edmonton’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Los Angeles penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Levi3 starts · 73 shots, this season and last

−2.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
.974 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.750 24 shots
High-danger save %
.727 11 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. LeviT. JarryD. KuemperA. Forsberg

D. Kuemper49 starts · 1293 shots, this season and last

−6.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.969 635 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 476 shots
High-danger save %
.692 182 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
51%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Levi: −2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: −6.8 goals saved above expected in 49 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Levi: 24.4 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: 25.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Levi: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Levi: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Levi: a typical wait of 90 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Levi: a quality start 67% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • D. Kuemper: a quality start 51% of the time

D. Levi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Kuemper, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Levi3 starts · 73 shots, this season

−2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.750 24 shots
High-danger save %
.727 11 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. LeviT. JarryD. KuemperA. Forsberg

D. Kuemper2 starts · 59 shots, this season

−3.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.969 32 shots
Medium-danger save %
.667 18 shots
High-danger save %
.667 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.51
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Levi: −2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • D. Kuemper: −3.9 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Levi: 24.4 shots faced per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 30.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Levi: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • D. Kuemper: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Levi: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Kuemper: 0.51 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Levi: a typical wait of 90 seconds between shots
    • D. Kuemper: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Levi: a quality start 67% of the time
    • D. Kuemper: a quality start 50% of the time

D. Levi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Kuemper, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
EdmontonLos AngelesLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54%61.5%
  • Power play23.1%17.1%
  • Rebound5.9%4.7%
  • Empty net5.6%4.3%
  • Off a turnover3.4%3.8%
  • Goalie pulled2.5%4.3%
  • Shorthanded2.2%3.4%
  • Off a faceoff win3.4%0.9%

324 Edmonton goals and 234 Los Angeles goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%33.3%
  • Power play13.6%22.2%
  • Rebound4.5%0%
  • Empty net4.5%0%
  • Off a turnover4.5%11.1%
  • Goalie pulled4.5%11.1%
  • Shorthanded9.1%22.2%
  • Off a faceoff win9.1%0%

22 Edmonton goals and 9 Los Angeles goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Edmonton Oilers · Los Angeles Kings