1. This one’s going to leave marks

   The Panthers and the Sharks are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

   The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 126.

   Hit score (100 is league average): Florida 142 (1st), San Jose 111 (7th)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

2. Bring a pillow

   Florida plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does San Jose. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

   The call The game runs at fewer than 79.4 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

   Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Florida 24th (79.9), San Jose 29th (79.4)

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

3. The Panthers’ power play outclasses the Sharks’

   The Panthers are near the top of the league for the power play, at the lethal end; the Sharks are one of the league’s worst, at the harmless end. Expect that gap to show.

   The call The Panthers’ power play creates more per 60 than the Sharks’.

   Power play: Florida 8th, San Jose 28th

   Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

How Florida and San Jose play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 0 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Florida, 0 for San Jose. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

• Shot suppression
  PorousStingy

  • Florida: 51.5 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

    Florida: 24.1 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

  • San Jose: 58.5 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

• Power play
  HarmlessLethal

  • Florida: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

    Florida: 2.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

  • San Jose: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

• Penalty kill
  LeakyAirtight

  • Florida: 6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

    Florida: 9.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • San Jose: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

• Breakdowns avoided
  Fire drillComposed

  • Florida: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 602nd of 32

    Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • San Jose: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

• Power kill
  BunkeredPredatory

  • Florida: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    Florida: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

  • San Jose: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

• Shots from in close
  From distanceIn close

  • Florida: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

    Florida: 21.1% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

  • San Jose: 31.6% of shots come from within 20 feet4th of 32

    San Jose: nothing to show yet this season

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

San Jose is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 0 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Who San Jose is likely to send against whom

San Jose has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

J. Markstrom43 starts · 1128 shots, this season and last

−8.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %

.971 582 shots

Medium-danger save %

.848 400 shots

High-danger save %

.644 146 shots

Shots faced per 60

25.9

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0.25

Quality starts

42%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • J. Markstrom: −8.2 goals saved above expected in 43 starts
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • J. Markstrom: 25.9 shots faced per 60
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • J. Markstrom: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • J. Markstrom: a quality start 42% of the time

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

J. Markstrom1 start · 15 shots, this season

+2.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %

1.000 4 shots

Medium-danger save %

1.000 6 shots

High-danger save %

1.000 5 shots

Shots faced per 60

13.9

Defensive breakdowns per 60

0

Quality starts

100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison

• Stopping more than expected
  SieveWall
  • J. Markstrom: +2.5 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
• How busy he is
  QuietUnder siege
  • J. Markstrom: 13.9 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
• How dangerous the shots are
  ShelteredExposed
  • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 10.3% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
• Breakdowns in front of him
  RareConstant
  • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
• Waiting between shots
  Steady workLong waits
  • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
• Night-to-night steadiness
  StreakySteady
  • J. Markstrom: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

• Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
• Early season. Florida has played 1 games and San Jose 0, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
• Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
• Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
• Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
• Key players for each side are on the team pages.

Team pages: Florida Panthers · San Jose Sharks