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Hits and takeaways
at

WSH

Washington Capitals

0-0-0

CAR

Carolina Hurricanes

0-0-1

Has last change

Friday, October 2

7:00 PM ET · Lenovo Center

The short version

Before the game

Turnovers could swing this one

The Hurricanes pounce on loose pucks, and the Capitals cough them up. The Capitals and the Hurricanes sit at opposite ends for shots from in close. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Washington’s only real way in is getting good looks, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Hurricanes pounce on loose pucks, and the Capitals cough them up. The Capitals and the Hurricanes sit at opposite ends for shots from in close. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Washington’s best hope is getting good looks, plus a big night in goal.

  1. Turnovers could swing this one

    The Hurricanes turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Capitals are the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Capitals.

    The call The Hurricanes get at least their usual 7.9% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Carolina 3rd for chances off turnovers (7.9% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Washington 32nd for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

  2. The Hurricanes give up good looks, and the Capitals take them

    The Hurricanes have struggled to prevent dangerous shots, and the Capitals don’t waste many.

    The call The Capitals’ average shot has at least their usual 6.4% chance of going in.

    Washington 10th for shot quality (a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Carolina 32nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 1 games this season

  3. The Capitals get in close; the Hurricanes shoot from distance

    On shots from in close, Washington is near the top of the league and Carolina is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Capitals take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Hurricanes.

    Shots from in close: Washington 6th, Carolina 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Washington and Carolina play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Washington CapitalsCarolina HurricanesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Washington, 1 for Carolina. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Washington: 57.6 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 60.2 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Carolina: 24.1 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Washington: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

      Carolina: a 4.7% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Washington: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

      Carolina: 0.0% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Washington: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 7.9% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

      Carolina: 0.0% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Washington: 35.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 40.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

      Carolina: 56.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Washington: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 27.9% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

      Carolina: 12.5% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Washington: 58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 46.7 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

      Carolina: 44.2 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Washington: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

      Carolina: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Washington: 0.51 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      Carolina: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Washington: +0.22 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

      Carolina: +1.03 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Washington: 82.7 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 81.5 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

      Carolina: 42.1 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Washington: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)24th of 32Washington: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Carolina: 26.8 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: forecheck score 130 (100 is league average)4th of 32Carolina: 35.5 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Washington: hit score 89 (100 is league average)24th of 32Washington: 23.4 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: hit score 110 (100 is league average)8th of 32Carolina: 28.6 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      Carolina: hit score 148 (100 is league average)4th of 32Carolina: 52.4 hits recorded per 604th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Washington: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 43.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Carolina: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Washington: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 8.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      Carolina: 9.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Washington: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Carolina: 2.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Washington: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 1.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Carolina: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Washington: 0.06 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

      Washington: nothing to show yet this season

    • Carolina: 0.02 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

      Carolina: 0.92 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Carolina is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Washington Capitals

    Carolina Hurricanes

    Who Carolina is likely to send against whom

    Each strip shows how one Carolina group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Washington’s, named in each box.

    Washington’s lines tonightL1 –L2 –L3 –L4 –

    Carolina forward lines against Washington forward lines

    • L1Hall · Stankoven · BlakeWSH L116%WSH L265%WSH L34%WSH L414%
    • L2Staal · Martinook · EhlersWSH L128%WSH L25%WSH L367%WSH L40%
    • L3Aho · Robinson · SvechnikovWSH L159%WSH L26%WSH L326%WSH L48%
    • L4Deslauriers · Jankowski · CarrierWSH L12%WSH L211%WSH L34%WSH L483%

    Carolina defense pairs against Washington forward lines

    • P1Slavin · ChatfieldWSH L133%WSH L216%WSH L346%WSH L45%
    • P2Walker · MillerWSH L142%WSH L215%WSH L319%WSH L423%
    • P3Gostisbehere · LegaultWSH L13%WSH L256%WSH L36%WSH L435%

    Based on 1 Carolina home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    Washington power play against Carolina penalty kill

    • Washington power play

      7.4 expected goals per 60 · 17th of 32

    • Carolina penalty kill

      7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 5th of 32

    Washington power play

     

    Carolina penalty kill

    Starts the kill

    Second wave

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. Bussi

    B. Bussi40 starts · 933 shots, this season and last

    +4.4 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .977 443 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .873 332 shots
    High-danger save %
    .709 158 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    23.1
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.25
    Quality starts
    55%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • B. Bussi: +4.4 goals saved above expected in 40 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • B. Bussi: 23.1 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • B. Bussi: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 85 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • B. Bussi: a quality start 55% of the time

    B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. Bussi

    B. Bussi1 start · 20 shots, this season

    +1.1 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    .917 12 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    1.000 4 shots
    High-danger save %
    1.000 4 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    18.5
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0
    Quality starts
    100%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • B. Bussi: +1.1 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • B. Bussi: 18.5 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • B. Bussi: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 160 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • B. Bussi: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

    B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    WashingtonCarolinaLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play–%56.5%
    • Power play–%19.7%
    • Rebound–%6.2%
    • Empty net–%6.5%
    • Off a turnover–%5.3%
    • Goalie pulled–%2.8%
    • Shorthanded–%2.8%
    • Off a faceoff win–%0.3%

    0 Washington goals and 356 Carolina goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play–%–%
    • Power play–%–%
    • Rebound–%–%
    • Empty net–%–%
    • Off a turnover–%–%
    • Goalie pulled–%–%
    • Shorthanded–%–%
    • Off a faceoff win–%–%

    0 Washington goals and 0 Carolina goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: Washington Capitals · Carolina Hurricanes