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FLA

Florida Panthers

1-0-1

ANA

Anaheim Ducks

1-0-0

Has last change

Sunday, October 4

8:00 PM ET · Honda Center

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Anaheim

The Ducks won the first meeting this season, 3-2 in overtime in Anaheim. The Ducks have won two in a row. The Panthers are 1-0-2. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Florida’s way back in is a penalty kill that holds up.

The Ducks won the first meeting this season, 3-2 in overtime in Anaheim. The Ducks have won two in a row. The Panthers are 1-0-2. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Florida can pull it off if their penalty kill holds up.

It’s strength against strength: the Ducks for shot volume, the Panthers at keeping shots away. The Panthers and the Ducks sit at opposite ends for preventing dangerous shots.

Who to watch

  • MissingAaron Ekblad has missed the Panthers’ latest game.
  • Old teamRadko Gudas faces his old team, Anaheim.
  • Old teamA.J. Greer faces his old team, Florida.

  1. Something has to give

    The Ducks are near the top of the league for shot volume, and the Panthers are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We’ll side with the Ducks.

    The call The Ducks take more than the league-average 56.4 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Panthers.

    Anaheim 6th for shot volume (61.4 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Florida 2nd for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 2 games this season

  2. The Panthers shut down the dangerous stuff; the Ducks don’t

    The Panthers are one of the league’s best for preventing dangerous shots, at the sheltered end; the Ducks are near the bottom of the league, at the exposed end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Panthers prevent dangerous shots better than the Ducks do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: Florida 5th, Anaheim 27th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 1 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Florida and Anaheim play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Florida PanthersAnaheim DucksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Florida, 1 for Anaheim. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Florida: 55.7 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      Florida: 51.9 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

    • Anaheim: 61.4 shot attempts per 606th of 32

      Anaheim: 55.9 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Florida: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

      Florida: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

      Anaheim: an 8.3% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

      Florida: 8.6% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

    • Anaheim: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Anaheim: 47.4% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

      Florida: 2.1% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

      Anaheim: 12.2% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Florida: 31.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Florida: 30.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

    • Anaheim: 35.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      Anaheim: 31.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Florida: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Florida: 25.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

    • Anaheim: 30.1% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

      Anaheim: 32.1% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Florida: 51.7 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 39.1 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

    • Anaheim: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      Anaheim: 59.3 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Florida: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      Florida: a 3.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against27th of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Florida: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

      Anaheim: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Florida: +0.05 goals saved above expected per 6027th of 32

      Florida: +0.92 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

    • Anaheim: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

      Anaheim: +0.24 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Florida: 79.8 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Florida: 59.9 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

    • Anaheim: 87.2 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

      Anaheim: 77.7 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Florida: forecheck score 147 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 32.3 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 195 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 46.8 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

    • Anaheim: forecheck score 102 (100 is league average)14th of 32Anaheim: 22.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

      Anaheim: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)19th of 32Anaheim: 22.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Florida: hit score 150 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 37.5 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 201 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 57.0 hits recorded per 601st of 32

    • Anaheim: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32Anaheim: 26.6 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

      Anaheim: hit score 108 (100 is league average)12th of 32Anaheim: 32.1 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Florida: 41.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

      Florida: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32

    • Anaheim: 41.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

      Anaheim: 45.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Florida: 8.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      Florida: 7.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

      Anaheim: 4.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Florida: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      Florida: 12.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Anaheim: 8.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Florida: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Florida: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

    • Anaheim: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Florida: 0.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

      Florida: 0.94 more penalties drawn than taken per 6013th of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

      Anaheim: 1.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Anaheim is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Florida Panthers

Anaheim Ducks

Who Anaheim is likely to send against whom

Anaheim has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Florida power play against Anaheim penalty kill

  • Florida power play

    8.0 expected goals per 60 · 7th of 32

  • Anaheim penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 12th of 32

Florida power play

PP161% of the time

Creates 6.7 expected goals per 60

  • S. JonesQuarterback
  • M. Tkachukboth unitsDistributor
  • S. ReinhartTrigger
  • B. Tkachuk
  • A. Barkov

PP238% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • A. EkbladQuarterback
  • M. Tkachukboth unitsDistributor
  • A. LundellNet-front
  • S. BennettTrigger
  • C. Verhaeghe

 

Where Florida’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Anaheim penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Markstrom43 starts · 1128 shots, this season and last

−8.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 582 shots
Medium-danger save %
.848 400 shots
High-danger save %
.644 146 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
42%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidL. Dostal

L. Dostal55 starts · 1543 shots, this season and last

+3.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 705 shots
Medium-danger save %
.853 585 shots
High-danger save %
.735 253 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.41
Quality starts
53%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: −8.2 goals saved above expected in 43 starts
    • L. Dostal: +3.1 goals saved above expected in 55 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 25.9 shots faced per 60
    • L. Dostal: 27.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Dostal: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 42% of the time
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 53% of the time

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom1 start · 15 shots, this season

+2.5 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 4 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 6 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
13.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidL. Dostal

L. Dostal1 start · 30 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 14 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 7 shots
High-danger save %
.778 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
30
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: +2.5 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 13.9 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: 30 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 10.3% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 106 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
FloridaAnaheimLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54.4%53.2%
  • Power play20.8%19.2%
  • Rebound7.2%8.4%
  • Empty net5.6%6.2%
  • Off a turnover4.4%4.2%
  • Goalie pulled3.6%4.2%
  • Shorthanded2.4%2.6%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%1.9%

250 Florida goals and 308 Anaheim goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play75%50%
  • Power play25%0%
  • Rebound0%25%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%25%

4 Florida goals and 4 Anaheim goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Anaheim Ducks