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VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

1-1-0

VAN

Vancouver Canucks

2-1-0

Has last change

Sunday, October 4

9:00 PM ET · Rogers Arena

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Vancouver

The Golden Knights already came to Vancouver once this season and left with a 3-2 win. The Golden Knights come in at 2-1-0, the Canucks at 2-2-0. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games, Vancouver is playing for the second night in a row, and Vancouver has home ice. Vancouver’s best hope is getting good looks, plus a big night in goal.

The Golden Knights already came to Vancouver once this season and left with a 3-2 win. The Golden Knights come in at 2-1-0, the Canucks at 2-2-0. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games, Vancouver is playing for the second night in a row, and Vancouver has home ice. Vancouver’s only real way in is getting good looks, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Golden Knights’ power play has a soft target in the Canucks’ kill.

Who to watch

  • MissingJake DeBrusk has missed the Canucks’ last two games.
  • Hot streakElias Pettersson has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakPaul Cotter has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Golden Knights’ power play has a target

    The Golden Knights’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Canucks’ kill is one of the league’s worst. The Canucks need to stay out of the box.

    The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates at least their usual 8.7 expected goals per 60.

    Vegas 3rd for power play (8.7 expected goals per 60) · Vancouver 28th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. The Golden Knights should pile up the shots

    The Golden Knights shoot a lot, and the Canucks are the league’s worst at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Golden Knights take at least their usual 59.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Vegas 9th for shot volume (59.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Vancouver 32nd for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vegas and Vancouver play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vegas Golden KnightsVancouver CanucksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Vegas, 3 for Vancouver. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vegas: 59.5 shot attempts per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 63.3 shot attempts per 605th of 32

    • Vancouver: 49.9 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

      Vancouver: 48.4 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vegas: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

    • Vancouver: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      Vancouver: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vegas: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

      Vegas: 9.6% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

    • Vancouver: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

      Vancouver: 23.7% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

      Vegas: 4.5% of chances come right after a turnover20th of 32

    • Vancouver: 6.8% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Vancouver: 20.3% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vegas: 37.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      Vegas: 40.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

    • Vancouver: 32.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Vancouver: 32.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vegas: 30.2% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      Vegas: 24.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    • Vancouver: 30.2% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

      Vancouver: 33.3% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vegas: 53.2 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

      Vegas: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

    • Vancouver: 62.3 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: 66.3 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

    • Vancouver: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

      Vancouver: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vegas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vegas: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

      Vegas: −0.68 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

    • Vancouver: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: −2.03 goals saved above expected per 6030th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vegas: 79.8 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

      Vegas: 83.4 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

    • Vancouver: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

      Vancouver: 78.6 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vegas: forecheck score 84 (100 is league average)30th of 32Vegas: 18.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 71 (100 is league average)30th of 32Vegas: 17.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

    • Vancouver: forecheck score 102 (100 is league average)13th of 32Vancouver: 23.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

      Vancouver: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32Vancouver: 26.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vegas: hit score 93 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Vegas: 24.4 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

      Vegas: hit score 78 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 24.0 hits recorded per 6026th of 32

    • Vancouver: hit score 96 (100 is league average)19th of 32Vancouver: 25.9 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      Vancouver: hit score 87 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Vancouver: 28.0 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vegas: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Vegas: 41.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

    • Vancouver: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

      Vancouver: 44.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vegas: 8.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Vegas: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

    • Vancouver: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

      Vancouver: 3.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vegas: 6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 4.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

    • Vancouver: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Vancouver: 9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vegas: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 1.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 606th of 32

    • Vancouver: 0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6016th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.33 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Vancouver is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vancouver Canucks

Worth knowing

  • Vancouver The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 3 games cover only 32% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the second-lowest in the league (a typical team: 65%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Vancouver J. DeBrusk is out and missed their last game.
  • Vancouver P. Cotter has started killing penalties: on the ice for 29% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Vancouver M. Sasson has started killing penalties: on the ice for 29% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 4% last season.

Who Vancouver is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Vancouver group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vegas’s, named in each box.

Vegas’s lines tonightL1 Stone · Barbashev · EichelL2 Karlsson · Marner · HowdenL3 Hertl · Olofsson · ConnellyL4 Dowd · Gatcomb · Bowman

Vancouver forward lines against Vegas forward lines

  • L1Boeser · Cotter · OhgrenVGK L120%VGK L239%VGK L318%VGK L422%
  • L2Pettersson · Karlsson · RossiVGK L155%VGK L219%VGK L313%VGK L412%
  • L3Bains · Lekkerimäki · SassonVGK L124%VGK L221%VGK L317%VGK L438%
  • L4Gallagher · O'Connor · RätyVGK L118%VGK L210%VGK L358%VGK L414%

Vancouver defense pairs against Vegas forward lines

  • P1Oleksiak · WillanderVGK L130%VGK L230%VGK L321%VGK L419%
  • P2Hronek · BuiumVGK L137%VGK L225%VGK L318%VGK L420%
  • P3Schenn · PetterssonVGK L120%VGK L24%VGK L349%VGK L427%

Based on 2 Vancouver home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vegas power play against Vancouver penalty kill

  • Vegas power play

    8.7 expected goals per 60 · 3rd of 32

  • Vancouver penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 28th of 32

Vegas power play

PP175% of the time

Creates 7.2 expected goals per 60

  • S. TheodoreQuarterback
  • J. Eichel
  • T. HertlTrigger
  • M. StoneDistributor
  • M. Marner

PP225% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • R. AnderssonQuarterback
  • V. Olofsson
  • B. BowmanTrigger
  • W. Karlsson
  • T. Connelly

 

Where Vegas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Vancouver penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

C. Hart18 starts · 468 shots, this season and last

−3.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.959 242 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 176 shots
High-danger save %
.600 50 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.21
Quality starts
61%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartL. MeriläinenK. Lankinen

L. Meriläinen21 starts · 492 shots, this season and last

−17.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.963 268 shots
Medium-danger save %
.830 159 shots
High-danger save %
.554 65 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.1
Quality starts
43%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −3.0 goals saved above expected in 18 starts
    • L. Meriläinen: −17.2 goals saved above expected in 21 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
    • L. Meriläinen: 24.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • L. Meriläinen: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0.21 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Meriläinen: 0.1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • L. Meriläinen: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 61% of the time
    • L. Meriläinen: a quality start 43% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Meriläinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart2 starts · 46 shots, this season

−1.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 25 shots
Medium-danger save %
.722 18 shots
High-danger save %
.667 3 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartL. MeriläinenK. Lankinen

L. Meriläinen2 starts · 35 shots, this season

+0.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 20 shots
Medium-danger save %
.818 11 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 4 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −1.3 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • L. Meriläinen: +0.8 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 23.5 shots faced per 60
    • L. Meriläinen: 23.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • L. Meriläinen: the average shot he faces has a 5.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Meriläinen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots
    • L. Meriläinen: a typical wait of 100 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 50% of the time
    • L. Meriläinen: a quality start 100% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Meriläinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VegasVancouverLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.3%51.5%
  • Power play21.3%23.3%
  • Rebound9.8%8.4%
  • Empty net4.9%4%
  • Off a turnover4%4%
  • Goalie pulled3.7%3.1%
  • Shorthanded2.9%3.5%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%2.2%

348 Vegas goals and 227 Vancouver goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%52.9%
  • Power play25%11.8%
  • Rebound12.5%17.6%
  • Empty net12.5%5.9%
  • Off a turnover0%5.9%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%5.9%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

8 Vegas goals and 17 Vancouver goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vegas Golden Knights · Vancouver Canucks