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OTT

Ottawa Senators

1-0-0

BOS

Boston Bruins

2-1-0

Has last change

Monday, October 5

7:30 PM ET · TD Garden

The short version

Before the game

The Senators’ power play has a target

The Senators come in at 1-0-0, the Bruins at 2-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and Boston has home ice. Boston’s best way through is keeping shots to a minimum.

The Senators come in at 1-0-0, the Bruins at 2-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and Boston has home ice. Boston can make it interesting if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Senators’ power play has a soft target in the Bruins’ kill. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themDavid Pastrnak has nine goals in eleven games against Ottawa since 2023-24.
  • Owns themClaude Giroux has a point in five straight games against Boston.
  • Old teamMark Kastelic faces his old team, Ottawa.

  1. The Senators’ power play has a target

    The Senators’ power play is near the top of the league, and the Bruins’ kill is near the bottom of the league. Every trip to the box hurts the Bruins more than most.

    The call The Senators’ power play creates at least their usual 7.8 expected goals per 60.

    Ottawa 9th for power play (7.8 expected goals per 60) · Boston 27th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 3 games this season

  2. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Senators and the Bruins are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 110.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Ottawa 114 (3rd), Boston 106 (10th)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 3 games this season

  3. The Senators hunt better looks than the Bruins

    On shot quality, Ottawa is the league’s best and Boston is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Senators’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Bruins’.

    Shot quality: Ottawa 1st, Boston 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Ottawa and Boston play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Ottawa SenatorsBoston BruinsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 1 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 1 games for Ottawa, 3 for Boston. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Ottawa: 55.7 shot attempts per 6020th of 32

      Ottawa: 45.6 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

    • Boston: 57.4 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

      Boston: 57.5 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Ottawa: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      Ottawa: an 11.4% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

    • Boston: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot28th of 32

      Boston: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 31.9% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

    • Boston: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

      Boston: 1.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Ottawa: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

      Ottawa: 13.5% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

    • Boston: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Boston: 6.6% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Ottawa: 34.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

      Ottawa: 22.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen31st of 32

    • Boston: 32.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

      Boston: 31.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Ottawa: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

      Ottawa: 36.0% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

    • Boston: 29.1% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Boston: 32.1% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Ottawa: 53.4 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

      Ottawa: 69.1 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

    • Boston: 56.8 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

      Boston: 50.5 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Ottawa: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Ottawa: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

    • Boston: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

      Boston: a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Boston: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      Boston: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6018th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Ottawa: +0.05 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Ottawa: +1.07 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

    • Boston: +0.18 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

      Boston: +0.64 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Ottawa: 80.0 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

      Ottawa: 87.8 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

    • Boston: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

      Boston: 80.9 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 115 (100 is league average)4th of 32Ottawa: 27.3 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 112 (100 is league average)9th of 32Ottawa: 32.5 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

    • Boston: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)20th of 32Boston: 21.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

      Boston: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)24th of 32Boston: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Ottawa: hit score 114 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 31.0 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 107 (100 is league average)11th of 32Ottawa: 38.2 hits recorded per 605th of 32

    • Boston: hit score 106 (100 is league average)10th of 32Boston: 28.9 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Boston: hit score 100 (100 is league average)16th of 32Boston: 31.7 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Ottawa: 41.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      Ottawa: 38.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

    • Boston: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

      Boston: 44.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Ottawa: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

      Ottawa: 11.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

    • Boston: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

      Boston: 5.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play19th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Ottawa: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Ottawa: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

    • Boston: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Boston: 15.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Ottawa: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

    • Boston: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Boston: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Ottawa: 0.16 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

    • Boston: 0.23 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

      Boston: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Boston is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (1 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Ottawa Senators

Boston Bruins

Who Boston is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Boston group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Ottawa’s, named in each box.

Ottawa’s lines tonightL1 Giroux · Amadio · PintoL2 Foegele · Batherson · StützleL3 Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundL4 Cousins · Hodgson · Halliday

Boston forward lines against Ottawa forward lines

  • L1Zacha · Geekie · MittelstadtOTT L129%OTT L226%OTT L344%OTT L41%
  • L2Lindholm · Pastrnak · PeterkaOTT L151%OTT L211%OTT L333%OTT L45%
  • L3Khusnutdinov · Minten · HagensOTT L136%OTT L258%OTT L36%OTT L40%
  • L4Kuraly · Jeannot · KastelicOTT L134%OTT L223%OTT L340%OTT L43%

Boston defense pairs against Ottawa forward lines

  • P1Lindholm · BorgenOTT L143%OTT L226%OTT L326%OTT L45%
  • P2Clifton · ZadorovOTT L133%OTT L215%OTT L351%OTT L41%
  • P3Aspirot · LohreiOTT L138%OTT L254%OTT L38%OTT L40%

Based on 1 Boston home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Ottawa power play against Boston penalty kill

  • Ottawa power play

    7.8 expected goals per 60 · 9th of 32

  • Boston penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 27th of 32

Ottawa power play

PP157% of the time

Creates 7.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. YakemchukQuarterback
  • T. StützleDistributor
  • W. Eklund
  • D. Cozens
  • D. BathersonTrigger

PP243% of the time

Creates 7.7 expected goals per 60

  • T. ChabotQuarterback
  • S. PintoTrigger
  • C. GirouxDistributor
  • S. HallidayNet-front
  • F. Zetterlund

 

Where Ottawa’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Boston penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

L. Ullmark48 starts · 1227 shots, this season and last

−5.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 628 shots
Medium-danger save %
.876 418 shots
High-danger save %
.624 181 shots
Shots faced per 60
25
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
60%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. UllmarkJ. SwaymanM. DiPietro

J. Swayman56 starts · 1629 shots, this season and last

+31.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.963 829 shots
Medium-danger save %
.895 544 shots
High-danger save %
.762 256 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.3
Quality starts
73%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Ullmark: −5.0 goals saved above expected in 48 starts
    • J. Swayman: +31.2 goals saved above expected in 56 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Ullmark: 25 shots faced per 60
    • J. Swayman: 29.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Ullmark: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Swayman: 0.3 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 60% of the time
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 73% of the time

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark1 start · 29 shots, this season

+1.1 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

Low-danger save %
1.000 16 shots
Medium-danger save %
.818 11 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 2 shots
Shots faced per 60
29
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. UllmarkJ. SwaymanM. DiPietro

J. Swayman2 starts · 57 shots, this season

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.938 32 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 19 shots
High-danger save %
.833 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.49
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Ullmark: +1.1 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Ullmark: 29 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: 27.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: 0.49 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 47 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 100% of the time

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
OttawaBostonLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53%58%
  • Power play22.6%18.8%
  • Rebound7.4%6.6%
  • Empty net6.7%5.6%
  • Off a turnover4.2%6.2%
  • Goalie pulled2.5%2.1%
  • Shorthanded2.1%1%
  • Off a faceoff win1.4%1.7%

283 Ottawa goals and 288 Boston goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play33.3%50%
  • Power play33.3%0%
  • Rebound33.3%0%
  • Empty net0%12.5%
  • Off a turnover0%25%
  • Goalie pulled0%12.5%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

3 Ottawa goals and 8 Boston goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Ottawa Senators · Boston Bruins