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NYI

New York Islanders

1-1-0

NYR

New York Rangers

3-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

7:30 PM ET · Madison Square Garden

The short version

Before the game

Watch the Islanders’ puck management

The Rangers have won three straight. The Islanders are 1-1-0. The Islanders have had more of the chances over recent games and the Rangers have home ice. The Islanders’ way back in is keeping shots to a minimum.

The Rangers have won three straight. The Islanders are 1-1-0. The Islanders have had more of the chances over recent games and the Rangers have home ice. The Islanders can pull it off if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Rangers pounce on loose pucks, and the Islanders cough them up. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • Leads the wayLogan Stanley leads the Islanders with two points.
  • Leads the wayAdam Fox leads the Rangers with four points.

  1. Watch the Islanders’ puck management

    The Rangers turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Islanders are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Islanders.

    The call The Rangers get at least their usual 7.5% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    NY Rangers 10th for chances off turnovers (7.5% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 2 games this season

  2. The Rangers’ power play has a target

    The Islanders’ penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Rangers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Islanders tonight.

    The call The Rangers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.7 expected goals per 60.

    NY Rangers 10th for power play (7.7 expected goals per 60) · NY Islanders 30th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 2 games this season

  3. Bodies will fly

    The Islanders and the Rangers are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 112.

    Hit score (100 is league average): NY Islanders 107 (9th), NY Rangers 118 (2nd)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How NY Islanders and NY Rangers play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New York IslandersNew York RangersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for NY Islanders, 4 for NY Rangers. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • NY Islanders: 56.1 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

      NY Islanders: 56.6 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 51.9 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

      NY Rangers: 49.7 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • NY Islanders: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

    • NY Rangers: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 7.5% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

      NY Islanders: 7.2% of chances come from rebounds21st of 32

    • NY Rangers: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

      NY Rangers: 8.9% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • NY Islanders: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

      NY Islanders: 21.6% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

    • NY Rangers: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 7.1% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • NY Islanders: 36.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 29.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 35.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 34.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • NY Islanders: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

      NY Islanders: 38.1% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 32.4% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

      NY Rangers: 41.3% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • NY Islanders: 59.4 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 62.5 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

    • NY Rangers: 57.4 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

      NY Rangers: 56.8 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

      NY Islanders: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

    • NY Rangers: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.70 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6019th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • NY Islanders: +0.23 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

      NY Islanders: +2.01 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

    • NY Rangers: +0.20 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

      NY Rangers: +1.29 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • NY Islanders: 84.0 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

      NY Islanders: 92.9 shots per 60, both teams combined3rd of 32

    • NY Rangers: 78.2 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

      NY Rangers: 71.3 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)21st of 32NY Islanders: 21.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)20th of 32NY Islanders: 23.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

    • NY Rangers: forecheck score 113 (100 is league average)5th of 32NY Rangers: 25.5 forecheck plays recorded per 604th of 32

      NY Rangers: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)16th of 32NY Rangers: 25.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • NY Islanders: hit score 107 (100 is league average)9th of 32NY Islanders: 28.6 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 129 (100 is league average)3rd of 32NY Islanders: 41.3 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

    • NY Rangers: hit score 118 (100 is league average)2nd of 32NY Rangers: 31.0 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

      NY Rangers: hit score 107 (100 is league average)13th of 32NY Rangers: 32.0 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • NY Islanders: 43.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 45.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six2nd of 32

    • NY Rangers: 41.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      NY Rangers: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 7.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 6.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • NY Islanders: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      NY Rangers: 4.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • NY Islanders: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 3.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • NY Rangers: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • NY Islanders: 0.10 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

      NY Islanders: 1.00 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

    • NY Rangers: 0.21 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Rangers is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New York Islanders

New York Rangers

Worth knowing

  • NY Rangers S. Durzi has started killing penalties: on the ice for 51% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 7% last season.

Who NY Rangers is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one NY Rangers group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are NY Islanders’s, named in each box.

NY Islanders’s lines tonightL1 Palmieri · Horvat · HeinemanL2 Pageau · Duclair · HolmstromL3 Schenn · Ritchie · EklundL4 Cizikas · Palat · Maccelli

NY Rangers forward lines against NY Islanders forward lines

  • L1Zibanejad · Lafrenière · PerreaultNYI L137%NYI L220%NYI L326%NYI L417%
  • L2Tolvanen · Cuylle · LabaNYI L117%NYI L250%NYI L321%NYI L412%
  • L3Miller · Dorofeyev · KartyeNYI L137%NYI L227%NYI L327%NYI L49%
  • L4Bjorkstrand · Veleno · ChmelarNYI L151%NYI L23%NYI L334%NYI L412%

NY Rangers defense pairs against NY Islanders forward lines

  • P1Pettersson · DurziNYI L126%NYI L233%NYI L325%NYI L416%
  • P2Gavrikov · FoxNYI L143%NYI L229%NYI L325%NYI L43%
  • P3Schneider · SmitsNYI L131%NYI L218%NYI L328%NYI L423%

Based on 2 NY Rangers home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

NY Islanders power play against NY Rangers penalty kill

  • NY Islanders power play

    6.7 expected goals per 60 · 29th of 32

  • NY Rangers penalty kill

    7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 · 20th of 32

NY Islanders power play

PP174% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • M. SchaeferQuarterback
  • B. HorvatTrigger
  • K. PalmieriNet-front
  • M. Maccelli
  • B. Schenn

PP226% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • T. DeAngeloQuarterback
  • S. Holmstrom
  • C. RitchieTrigger
  • V. Eklund
  • A. DuclairNet-front

 

Where NY Islanders’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

NY Rangers penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

  • J. Veleno11 of 11 kills · 0:52 a kill · takes the draw
  • M. Zibanejad10 of 11 kills · 0:31 a kill · takes the draw
  • E. Tolvanen9 of 11 kills · 0:29 a kill
  • N. Laba8 of 11 kills · 0:32 a kill · takes the draw
  • A. FoxD5 of 11 kills · 0:35 a kill

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

I. Sorokin57 starts · 1593 shots, this season and last

+31.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 781 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 554 shots
High-danger save %
.775 258 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.43
Quality starts
54%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. SorokinI. ShesterkinD. Garand

I. Shesterkin53 starts · 1501 shots, this season and last

+26.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 763 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 530 shots
High-danger save %
.740 208 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
66%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Sorokin: +31.2 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
    • I. Shesterkin: +26.8 goals saved above expected in 53 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Sorokin: 28.6 shots faced per 60
    • I. Shesterkin: 28.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Sorokin: 0.43 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Shesterkin: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 54% of the time
    • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 66% of the time

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin2 starts · 63 shots, this season

+4.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 32 shots
Medium-danger save %
.962 26 shots
High-danger save %
.800 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.51
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. SorokinI. ShesterkinD. Garand

I. Shesterkin3 starts · 76 shots, this season

+3.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 31 shots
Medium-danger save %
.917 36 shots
High-danger save %
.778 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Sorokin: +4.0 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • I. Shesterkin: +3.6 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Sorokin: 32.1 shots faced per 60
    • I. Shesterkin: 25.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
    • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Sorokin: 0.51 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Shesterkin: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time
    • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 100% of the time

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
NY IslandersNY RangersLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play55.7%55.9%
  • Power play17%22.4%
  • Rebound6.8%6.9%
  • Empty net3%6.1%
  • Off a turnover2.6%2.9%
  • Goalie pulled6.4%2.4%
  • Shorthanded4.7%2%
  • Off a faceoff win3.8%1.2%

235 NY Islanders goals and 245 NY Rangers goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play42.9%45.5%
  • Power play14.3%18.2%
  • Rebound0%9.1%
  • Empty net0%27.3%
  • Off a turnover14.3%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded28.6%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

7 NY Islanders goals and 11 NY Rangers goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New York Islanders · New York Rangers