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PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-2-2

OTT

Ottawa Senators

2-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 8

7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Flyers need a win

The Senators are 2-1-0. The Flyers haven’t won in four. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Philadelphia’s way back in is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Senators are 2-1-0. The Flyers haven’t won in four. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Philadelphia’s best way through is pouncing on loose pucks.

Expect plenty of hitting. Both teams play slow, low-event hockey.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themTim Stützle has seven goals in nine games against Philadelphia since 2023-24.
  • MissingRasmus Ristolainen has missed the Flyers’ latest game.
  • Slow startTravis Konecny is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Flyers and the Senators are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 116.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Philadelphia 111 (6th), Ottawa 122 (2nd)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

  2. Bring a pillow

    Philadelphia plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does Ottawa. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 77.5 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Philadelphia 31st (77.5), Ottawa 25th (79.3)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

  3. The Senators lock it down; the Flyers don’t

    The Senators are near the top of the league for shot suppression, at the stingy end; the Flyers are one of the league’s worst, at the porous end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Senators allow fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Flyers.

    Shot suppression: Ottawa 6th, Philadelphia 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Philadelphia and Ottawa play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Philadelphia FlyersOttawa SenatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Philadelphia, 3 for Ottawa. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Philadelphia: 43.7 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 37.6 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 55.6 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

      Ottawa: 52.1 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

      Ottawa: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Philadelphia: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Philadelphia: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 16.3% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Philadelphia: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 1.7% of chances come right after a turnover29th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

      Ottawa: 14.0% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Philadelphia: 31.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Philadelphia: 29.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

    • Ottawa: 34.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen17th of 32

      Ottawa: 32.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Philadelphia: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

      Philadelphia: 22.9% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

    • Ottawa: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Ottawa: 30.0% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Philadelphia: 62.4 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

      Philadelphia: 79.0 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 52.7 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

      Ottawa: 55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Philadelphia: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.63 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.45 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Philadelphia: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Philadelphia: +0.49 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

    • Ottawa: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Ottawa: +0.70 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Philadelphia: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

      Philadelphia: 83.0 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

    • Ottawa: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

      Ottawa: 78.1 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Philadelphia: forecheck score 89 (100 is league average)26th of 32Philadelphia: 19.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

      Philadelphia: forecheck score 70 (100 is league average)31st of 32Philadelphia: 17.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)4th of 32Ottawa: 28.1 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)6th of 32Ottawa: 31.2 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Philadelphia: hit score 111 (100 is league average)6th of 32Philadelphia: 28.7 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      Philadelphia: hit score 107 (100 is league average)13th of 32Philadelphia: 30.7 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

    • Ottawa: hit score 122 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Ottawa: 33.4 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 32Ottawa: 39.9 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Philadelphia: 43.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

      Philadelphia: 43.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

    • Ottawa: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

      Ottawa: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Philadelphia: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

      Philadelphia: 5.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Ottawa: 8.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Philadelphia: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded16th of 32

      Philadelphia: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Ottawa: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Philadelphia: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Ottawa: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      Ottawa: 1.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Philadelphia: 0.18 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.97 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.14 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.33 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Ottawa is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Philadelphia Flyers

Ottawa Senators

Worth knowing

  • Philadelphia The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 4 games cover only 30% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the lowest share in the league (a typical team: 54%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Ottawa J. Spence has started killing penalties: on the ice for 46% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 4% last season.

Who Ottawa is likely to send against whom

Ottawa has not played at home yet this season, so there is no matching habit to show.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Philadelphia power play against Ottawa penalty kill

  • Philadelphia power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 16th of 32

  • Ottawa penalty kill

    6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 6th of 32

Philadelphia power play

PP164% of the time

Creates 6.4 expected goals per 60

  • J. DrysdaleQuarterback
  • M. MichkovNet-front
  • T. ZegrasTrigger
  • T. Foerster
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor

PP236% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • C. YorkQuarterback
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor
  • O. TippettTrigger
  • A. Bump
  • C. DvorakNet-front

 

Where Philadelphia’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Ottawa penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Vladar51 starts · 1356 shots, this season and last

+11.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.986 699 shots
Medium-danger save %
.862 472 shots
High-danger save %
.697 185 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
75%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. VladarJ. WollL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark49 starts · 1237 shots, this season and last

−3.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 633 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 423 shots
High-danger save %
.624 181 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
61%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Vladar: +11.7 goals saved above expected in 51 starts
    • L. Ullmark: −3.5 goals saved above expected in 49 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Vladar: 26.1 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 24.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Vladar: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 78 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 75% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 61% of the time

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar2 starts · 73 shots, this season

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 34 shots
Medium-danger save %
.793 29 shots
High-danger save %
.700 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
37.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.51
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. VladarJ. WollL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark2 starts · 39 shots, this season

+2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 21 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 16 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 2 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Vladar: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • L. Ullmark: +2.5 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Vladar: 37.4 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 23.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 8.6% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Vladar: 0.51 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 58 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 98 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 50% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
PhiladelphiaOttawaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play59.2%53.4%
  • Power play14.7%22.4%
  • Rebound3.8%7.2%
  • Empty net8.7%6.6%
  • Off a turnover6.4%4.1%
  • Goalie pulled3.4%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.6%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%1.4%

265 Philadelphia goals and 290 Ottawa goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play80%60%
  • Power play0%20%
  • Rebound0%10%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled20%0%
  • Shorthanded0%10%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

5 Philadelphia goals and 10 Ottawa goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers · Ottawa Senators