Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

DET

Detroit Red Wings

1-3-0

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

1-2-1

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

7:00 PM ET · Centre Bell

The short version

Before the game

Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

The Canadiens haven’t won in three. The Red Wings are 1-3-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately, Detroit will be without Kasper, Detroit is playing for the second night in a row, and Montréal has home ice. Detroit can make it interesting if their power play gets going.

The Canadiens haven’t won in three. The Red Wings are 1-3-0. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately, Detroit will be without Kasper, Detroit is playing for the second night in a row, and Montréal has home ice. Detroit can pull it off if their power play gets going.

The Red Wings’ power play has a soft target in the Canadiens’ kill.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themChris Kreider has six goals in eight games against Detroit since 2023-24, most of them with the Rangers.
  • MissingIvan Demidov has missed the Canadiens’ last two games.
  • Still outSimon Edvinsson hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outO. Kapanen is day to day (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

    The Canadiens’ penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and the Red Wings’ power play is one of the league’s best. Discipline matters more than usual for the Canadiens tonight.

    The call The Red Wings’ power play creates at least their usual 8.5 expected goals per 60.

    Detroit 4th for power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · Montréal 26th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Red Wings give up good looks, and the Canadiens take them

    The Canadiens’ shots are some of the most dangerous in the league, and the Red Wings are near the bottom of the league at preventing dangerous ones. Look for plenty of good chances.

    The call The Canadiens’ average shot has at least their usual 6.9% chance of going in.

    Montréal 2nd for shot quality (a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Detroit 23rd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Detroit and Montréal play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Detroit Red WingsMontréal CanadiensLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Detroit, 4 for Montréal. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Detroit: 60.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

      Detroit: 65.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

    • Montréal: 55.7 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

      Montréal: 56.5 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      Detroit: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

    • Montréal: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

      Montréal: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Detroit: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Detroit: 8.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

    • Montréal: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

      Montréal: 15.7% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Detroit: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

    • Montréal: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover20th of 32

      Montréal: 17.0% of chances come right after a turnover1st of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Detroit: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

      Detroit: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

    • Montréal: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Montréal: 33.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Detroit: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Detroit: 37.4% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

    • Montréal: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

      Montréal: 33.6% of shots come from within 20 feet11th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Detroit: 55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 47.9 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

    • Montréal: 55.9 shot attempts allowed per 6015th of 32

      Montréal: 52.7 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

    • Montréal: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against24th of 32

      Montréal: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

    • Montréal: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

      Montréal: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Detroit: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

      Detroit: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

    • Montréal: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

      Montréal: −1.30 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Detroit: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

      Detroit: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

    • Montréal: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

      Montréal: 81.0 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Detroit: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)8th of 32Detroit: 24.1 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)4th of 32Detroit: 30.6 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

    • Montréal: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)13th of 32Montréal: 24.5 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

      Montréal: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)13th of 32Montréal: 27.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Detroit: hit score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Detroit: 27.8 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 32Detroit: 35.8 hits recorded per 605th of 32

    • Montréal: hit score 101 (100 is league average)16th of 32Montréal: 27.9 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

      Montréal: hit score 95 (100 is league average)19th of 32Montréal: 29.3 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Detroit: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Detroit: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

    • Montréal: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

      Montréal: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Detroit: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

    • Montréal: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play27th of 32

      Montréal: 3.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

    • Montréal: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      Montréal: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

    • Montréal: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      Montréal: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Detroit: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

    • Montréal: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6026th of 32

      Montréal: 1.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Montréal is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Detroit Red Wings

Montréal Canadiens

Worth knowing

  • Detroit M. Kasper is out week to week and has missed the last 3 games. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Detroit J. Compher is on injured reserve and has missed the last 2 games.
  • Detroit S. Edvinsson has not played this season. He is a top-pair defenseman. A. Johansson has taken his spot beside M. Seider.
  • Montréal O. Kapanen is day to day (lower body injury) and has not played this season. J. Slafkovský has taken his spot beside A. Newhook and I. Demidov.
  • Montréal K. Guhle is expected back after missing 4 games. Their recent numbers were built mostly without him.
  • Montréal A. Xhekaj has started killing penalties: on the ice for 27% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 6% last season.

Who Montréal is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Montréal group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Detroit’s, named in each box.

Detroit’s lines tonightL1 Larkin · Arvidsson · RaymondL2 DeBrincat · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdL3 Copp · Kolesar · RasmussenL4 Dries · Mazur · Danielson

Montréal forward lines against Detroit forward lines

  • L1Suzuki · Caufield · SlafkovskýDET L114%DET L251%DET L328%DET L47%
  • L2Danault · Texier · BolducDET L133%DET L219%DET L319%DET L429%
  • L3Kreider · Anderson · NewhookDET L115%DET L238%DET L327%DET L420%
  • L4Evans · Dach · XhekajDET L122%DET L217%DET L349%DET L412%

Montréal defense pairs against Detroit forward lines

  • P1Dobson · HutsonDET L124%DET L240%DET L320%DET L415%
  • P2Matheson · CarrierDET L135%DET L224%DET L330%DET L411%
  • P3Xhekaj · EngstromDET L114%DET L22%DET L357%DET L427%

Based on 2 Montréal home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Detroit power play against Montréal penalty kill

  • Detroit power play

    8.5 expected goals per 60 · 4th of 32

  • Montréal penalty kill

    8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 · 26th of 32

Detroit power play

PP170% of the time

Creates 8.3 expected goals per 60

  • M. SeiderQuarterback
  • L. RaymondDistributor
  • A. DeBrincatTrigger
  • V. Arvidsson
  • A. Coppboth unitsNet-front

PP230% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • J. FaulkQuarterback
  • A. Coppboth unitsTrigger
  • M. Rasmussen
  • E. FinnieNet-front
  • A. Sandin-PellikkaDistributor

 

Where Detroit’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Montréal penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Gibson59 starts · 1548 shots, this season and last

+15.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 768 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 562 shots
High-danger save %
.711 218 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
49%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. GibsonD. TarasovJ. DobesJ. Fowler

J. Dobes45 starts · 1277 shots, this season and last

+11.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 649 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 411 shots
High-danger save %
.724 217 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Gibson: +15.1 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
    • J. Dobes: +11.5 goals saved above expected in 45 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
    • J. Dobes: 28.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • J. Dobes: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Dobes: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • J. Dobes: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 49% of the time
    • J. Dobes: a quality start 62% of the time

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Dobes, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson4 starts · 87 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.829 35 shots
High-danger save %
.571 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
25%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. GibsonD. TarasovJ. DobesJ. Fowler

J. Dobes3 starts · 90 shots, this season

−4.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.978 45 shots
Medium-danger save %
.774 31 shots
High-danger save %
.643 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
33%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Gibson: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • J. Dobes: −4.0 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Gibson: 24.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Dobes: 30.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
    • J. Dobes: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Gibson: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Dobes: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots
    • J. Dobes: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 25% of the time
    • J. Dobes: a quality start 33% of the time

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Dobes, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
DetroitMontréalLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.8%56.5%
  • Power play23.3%21%
  • Rebound4%5.5%
  • Empty net8.8%5.2%
  • Off a turnover4.8%4.9%
  • Goalie pulled2.4%3.5%
  • Shorthanded1.2%1.7%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%1.7%

249 Detroit goals and 347 Montréal goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%42.9%
  • Power play30%7.1%
  • Rebound0%14.3%
  • Empty net10%0%
  • Off a turnover10%14.3%
  • Goalie pulled0%21.4%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

10 Detroit goals and 14 Montréal goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Detroit Red Wings · Montréal Canadiens