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NJD

New Jersey Devils

1-2-0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

1-3-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

6:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

Turnovers could swing this one

The Devils come in at 1-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-3-0. New Jersey has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can tip it if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Devils come in at 1-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-3-0. New Jersey has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can still swing it if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Devils pounce on loose pucks, and the Red Wings cough them up.

Who to watch

  • Still outC. Brown is out and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outSimon Edvinsson hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Turnovers could swing this one

    The Red Wings give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Devils pounce.

    The call The Devils get at least their usual 7.7% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    New Jersey 7th for chances off turnovers (7.7% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Detroit 27th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 4 games this season

  2. Penalties could cost the Red Wings

    The Devils’ power play is near the top of the league, and the Red Wings’ kill is near the bottom of the league. Every trip to the box hurts the Red Wings more than most.

    The call The Devils’ power play creates at least their usual 8.2 expected goals per 60.

    New Jersey 7th for power play (8.2 expected goals per 60) · Detroit 23rd for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How New Jersey and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New Jersey DevilsDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for New Jersey, 4 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • New Jersey: 63.9 shot attempts per 605th of 32

      New Jersey: 71.1 shot attempts per 602nd of 32

    • Detroit: 60.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

      Detroit: 65.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      Detroit: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

      New Jersey: 8.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Detroit: 8.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • New Jersey: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

      New Jersey: 10.1% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Detroit: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • New Jersey: 36.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

      New Jersey: 38.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

    • Detroit: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

      Detroit: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • New Jersey: 28.9% of shots come from within 20 feet29th of 32

      New Jersey: 28.2% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

    • Detroit: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Detroit: 37.4% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • New Jersey: 55.1 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

      New Jersey: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

    • Detroit: 55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 47.9 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • New Jersey: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.30 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • New Jersey: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

      New Jersey: −1.12 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

      Detroit: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • New Jersey: 83.6 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

      New Jersey: 87.5 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

    • Detroit: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

      Detroit: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • New Jersey: forecheck score 95 (100 is league average)17th of 32New Jersey: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      New Jersey: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)16th of 32New Jersey: 23.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)8th of 32Detroit: 24.1 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)4th of 32Detroit: 30.6 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • New Jersey: hit score 78 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 19.8 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

      New Jersey: hit score 68 (100 is league average)31st of 32New Jersey: 18.5 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Detroit: 27.8 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 32Detroit: 35.8 hits recorded per 605th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • New Jersey: 40.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32

      New Jersey: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

    • Detroit: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Detroit: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • New Jersey: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      New Jersey: 4.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

    • Detroit: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • New Jersey: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      New Jersey: 10.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • New Jersey: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.31 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

    • Detroit: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New Jersey Devils

Detroit Red Wings

Worth knowing

  • New Jersey C. Brown is out and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. A. Mantha has taken his spot beside J. Bratt and J. Hughes.
  • Detroit M. Kasper is out week to week and has missed the last 3 games. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Detroit J. Compher is on injured reserve and has missed the last 2 games.
  • Detroit S. Edvinsson has not played this season. He is a top-pair defenseman. A. Johansson has taken his spot beside M. Seider.

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are New Jersey’s, named in each box.

New Jersey’s lines tonightL1 Meier · Hischier · EvangelistaL2 Mantha · Bratt · HughesL3 Rodrigues · Gritsyuk · MercerL4 Glass · Boqvist · Lombardi

Detroit forward lines against New Jersey forward lines

  • L1Larkin · Arvidsson · RaymondNJD L141%NJD L222%NJD L319%NJD L418%
  • L2DeBrincat · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdNJD L129%NJD L257%NJD L310%NJD L44%
  • L3Copp · Kolesar · RasmussenNJD L136%NJD L224%NJD L316%NJD L424%
  • L4Dries · Mazur · DanielsonNJD L113%NJD L222%NJD L347%NJD L418%

Detroit defense pairs against New Jersey forward lines

  • P1Seider · JohanssonNJD L142%NJD L228%NJD L319%NJD L411%
  • P2Chiarot · JohanssonNJD L135%NJD L236%NJD L321%NJD L47%
  • P3Faulk · WallinderNJD L116%NJD L237%NJD L317%NJD L430%

Based on 4 Detroit home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

New Jersey power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • New Jersey power play

    8.2 expected goals per 60 · 7th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

New Jersey power play

PP162% of the time

Creates 6.1 expected goals per 60

  • L. HughesQuarterback
  • J. HughesDistributor
  • L. Evangelista
  • N. HischierTrigger
  • J. BrattNet-front

PP235% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • D. HamiltonQuarterback
  • T. MeierTrigger
  • E. Rodrigues
  • A. Mantha
  • A. Gritsyuk

 

Where New Jersey’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Allen39 starts · 1088 shots, this season and last

+11.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 536 shots
Medium-danger save %
.905 380 shots
High-danger save %
.651 172 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
56%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenN. DawsJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson59 starts · 1548 shots, this season and last

+15.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 768 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 562 shots
High-danger save %
.711 218 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
49%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: +11.7 goals saved above expected in 39 starts
    • J. Gibson: +15.1 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 28.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 56% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 49% of the time

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen2 starts · 56 shots, this season

−1.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.960 25 shots
Medium-danger save %
.826 23 shots
High-danger save %
.750 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenN. DawsJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson4 starts · 87 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.829 35 shots
High-danger save %
.571 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
25%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: −1.1 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Gibson: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 27.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 24.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.7% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 50% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 25% of the time

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
New JerseyDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play58%53.8%
  • Power play19.5%23.3%
  • Rebound2.6%4%
  • Empty net7.8%8.8%
  • Off a turnover4.3%4.8%
  • Goalie pulled4.3%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.6%1.2%
  • Off a faceoff win0.9%1.6%

231 New Jersey goals and 249 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%50%
  • Power play16.7%30%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%10%
  • Off a turnover16.7%10%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

6 New Jersey goals and 10 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New Jersey Devils · Detroit Red Wings