Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

ANA

Anaheim Ducks

3-1-0

CGY

Calgary Flames

0-4-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

10:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Saddledome

The short version

Before the game

The Flames need a win

The Flames haven’t won in four. The Ducks are 3-1-0. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games, Anaheim is playing for the second night in a row, and Calgary has home ice. Calgary can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Flames haven’t won in four. The Ducks are 3-1-0. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games, Anaheim is playing for the second night in a row, and Calgary has home ice. Calgary can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Ducks pounce on loose pucks, and the Flames cough them up. Both teams like a fast game.

Who to watch

  • Owns themJoel Farabee has a point in five straight games against Anaheim.
  • Hot streakBeckett Sennecke has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakMikael Granlund has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outTroy Terry hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Flames can’t afford to cough it up

    The Flames give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Ducks pounce.

    The call The Ducks get at least their usual 7.7% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Anaheim 5th for chances off turnovers (7.7% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Calgary 30th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. Shots should fly both ways

    Anaheim plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Calgary. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at more than 85.9 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Anaheim 4th (84.9), Calgary 2nd (85.9)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Anaheim and Calgary play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Anaheim DucksCalgary FlamesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Anaheim, 4 for Calgary. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Anaheim: 57.7 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

      Anaheim: 52.9 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

    • Calgary: 63.4 shot attempts per 606th of 32

      Calgary: 68.7 shot attempts per 605th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Anaheim: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

    • Calgary: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

      Calgary: a 5.1% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Anaheim: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

      Anaheim: 28.6% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

    • Calgary: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds29th of 32

      Calgary: 3.0% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Anaheim: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

      Anaheim: 9.6% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

    • Calgary: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

      Calgary: 13.2% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Anaheim: 35.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

      Anaheim: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

    • Calgary: 34.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

      Calgary: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Anaheim: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

      Anaheim: 33.9% of shots come from within 20 feet9th of 32

    • Calgary: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

      Calgary: 32.5% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Anaheim: 57.2 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

      Anaheim: 53.5 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

    • Calgary: 61.3 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

      Calgary: 64.7 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Anaheim: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

    • Calgary: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

      Calgary: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against14th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Anaheim: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6018th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Calgary: 0.46 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 0.59 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Anaheim: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

      Anaheim: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

    • Calgary: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

      Calgary: −2.38 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Anaheim: 84.9 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

      Anaheim: 73.5 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

    • Calgary: 85.9 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

      Calgary: 95.2 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Anaheim: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)6th of 32Anaheim: 26.8 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

      Anaheim: forecheck score 126 (100 is league average)5th of 32Anaheim: 31.2 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

    • Calgary: forecheck score 101 (100 is league average)15th of 32Calgary: 22.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

      Calgary: forecheck score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Calgary: 25.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Anaheim: hit score 116 (100 is league average)5th of 32Anaheim: 30.2 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Anaheim: hit score 125 (100 is league average)4th of 32Anaheim: 36.1 hits recorded per 604th of 32

    • Calgary: hit score 106 (100 is league average)11th of 32Calgary: 28.0 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

      Calgary: hit score 113 (100 is league average)10th of 32Calgary: 32.9 hits recorded per 6010th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Anaheim: 41.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

      Anaheim: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

    • Calgary: 43.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

      Calgary: 44.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

      Anaheim: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

    • Calgary: 6.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      Calgary: 4.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Anaheim: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

      Anaheim: 6.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

    • Calgary: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Calgary: 4.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Anaheim: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

    • Calgary: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Calgary: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Anaheim: 0.01 more penalties drawn than taken per 6017th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.74 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

    • Calgary: 0.20 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

      Calgary: 1.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Calgary is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Anaheim Ducks

Calgary Flames

Worth knowing

  • Anaheim T. Terry has not played this season. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Calgary M. Pospisil has started killing penalties: on the ice for 29% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 2% last season.

Who Calgary is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Calgary group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Anaheim’s, named in each box.

Anaheim’s lines tonightL1 Caulfield · Malott · WasheL2 Killorn · Greer · PoehlingL3 Colangelo · Carlsson · SenneckeL4 Granlund · Nesterenko · Gauthier

Calgary forward lines against Anaheim forward lines

  • L1Frost · Coronato · GridinANA L127%ANA L225%ANA L326%ANA L422%
  • L2Strome · Pospisil · HonzekANA L141%ANA L24%ANA L337%ANA L418%
  • L3Backlund · Farabee · SharangovichANA L129%ANA L245%ANA L325%ANA L41%
  • L4Klapka · Castagna · SunievANA L127%ANA L210%ANA L310%ANA L453%

Calgary defense pairs against Anaheim forward lines

  • P1Middleton · ParekhANA L125%ANA L216%ANA L339%ANA L419%
  • P2Whitecloud · BahlANA L127%ANA L241%ANA L321%ANA L411%
  • P3Kuznetsov · NemecANA L136%ANA L213%ANA L323%ANA L427%

Based on 2 Calgary home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Anaheim power play against Calgary penalty kill

  • Anaheim power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 14th of 32

  • Calgary penalty kill

    7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 18th of 32

Anaheim power play

PP186% of the time

Creates 7.6 expected goals per 60

  • J. LaCombeQuarterback
  • M. Granlund
  • C. GauthierTrigger
  • L. CarlssonDistributor
  • B. SenneckeNet-front

PP214% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • T. LuneauQuarterback
  • P. MintyukovTrigger
  • R. Poehling
  • A. Greer
  • N. Klepov

 

Where Anaheim’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Calgary penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

L. Dostal58 starts · 1607 shots, this season and last

+2.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 735 shots
Medium-danger save %
.853 606 shots
High-danger save %
.733 266 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
53%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. DostalV. HussoD. WolfD. Cooley

D. Wolf54 starts · 1618 shots, this season and last

−3.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 807 shots
Medium-danger save %
.849 596 shots
High-danger save %
.721 215 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
54%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Dostal: +2.9 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
    • D. Wolf: −3.3 goals saved above expected in 54 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Dostal: 27.6 shots faced per 60
    • D. Wolf: 29.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Dostal: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Wolf: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 53% of the time
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 54% of the time

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal4 starts · 94 shots, this season

+0.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 28 shots
High-danger save %
.727 22 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
75%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. DostalV. HussoD. WolfD. Cooley

D. Wolf2 starts · 59 shots, this season

−5.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.958 24 shots
Medium-danger save %
.769 26 shots
High-danger save %
.444 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Dostal: +0.1 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • D. Wolf: −5.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Dostal: 25.2 shots faced per 60
    • D. Wolf: 29.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Dostal: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Wolf: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 75% of the time
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 0% of the time

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
AnaheimCalgaryLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.5%57.3%
  • Power play20.1%17.8%
  • Rebound8.5%7%
  • Empty net6.3%6.1%
  • Off a turnover4.1%3.8%
  • Goalie pulled4.1%0.9%
  • Shorthanded2.5%4.7%
  • Off a faceoff win1.9%2.3%

318 Anaheim goals and 213 Calgary goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play35.7%66.7%
  • Power play35.7%33.3%
  • Rebound14.3%0%
  • Empty net7.1%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win7.1%0%

14 Anaheim goals and 6 Calgary goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Anaheim Ducks · Calgary Flames