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NJD

New Jersey Devils

2-2-0

WSH

Washington Capitals

3-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

1:00 PM ET · Capital One Arena

The short version

Before the game

Bratt’s favourite opponent

The Capitals have won two in a row. The Devils are 2-2-0. New Jersey has controlled the play far better over recent games and Washington has home ice. Washington can pull it off if they get good looks.

The Capitals have won two in a row. The Devils are 2-2-0. New Jersey has controlled the play far better over recent games and Washington has home ice. Washington’s way back in is getting good looks.

The Devils pounce on loose pucks, and the Capitals cough them up. The Capitals and the Devils sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Old teamDeclan Chisholm faces his old team, Washington.
  • Owns themJesper Bratt has a point in eight straight games against Washington.
  • Haunts themAlex Ovechkin has six goals in ten games against New Jersey since 2023-24.
  • MissingMatt Roy has missed the Capitals’ last two games.

  1. Watch the Capitals’ puck management

    The Devils turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Capitals are the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Capitals.

    The call The Devils get at least their usual 7.8% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    New Jersey 3rd for chances off turnovers (7.8% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Washington 32nd for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Devils’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

    The Devils have struggled to prevent dangerous shots, and the Capitals don’t waste many.

    The call The Capitals’ average shot has at least their usual 6.7% chance of going in.

    Washington 6th for shot quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · New Jersey 26th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  3. The Capitals get in close; the Devils shoot from distance

    On shots from in close, Washington is near the top of the league and New Jersey is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Capitals take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Devils.

    Shots from in close: Washington 8th, New Jersey 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How New Jersey and Washington play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New Jersey DevilsWashington CapitalsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for New Jersey, 4 for Washington. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • New Jersey: 64.4 shot attempts per 605th of 32

      New Jersey: 70.3 shot attempts per 602nd of 32

    • Washington: 57.0 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      Washington: 56.6 shot attempts per 6015th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

    • Washington: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Washington: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

      New Jersey: 9.6% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

    • Washington: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

      Washington: 13.6% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • New Jersey: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

      New Jersey: 13.1% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

    • Washington: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Washington: 11.5% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • New Jersey: 34.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      New Jersey: 34.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

    • Washington: 35.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen12th of 32

      Washington: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen12th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • New Jersey: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

      New Jersey: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

    • Washington: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

      Washington: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • New Jersey: 54.1 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      New Jersey: 48.9 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

    • Washington: 57.9 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

      Washington: 57.1 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

      New Jersey: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

    • Washington: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Washington: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • New Jersey: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.95 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

    • Washington: 0.52 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

      Washington: 1.02 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • New Jersey: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

      New Jersey: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32

    • Washington: +0.24 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

      Washington: +1.59 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • New Jersey: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

      New Jersey: 86.4 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

    • Washington: 82.8 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      Washington: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • New Jersey: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)18th of 32New Jersey: 20.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

      New Jersey: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)16th of 32New Jersey: 21.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Washington: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)25th of 32Washington: 20.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

      Washington: forecheck score 80 (100 is league average)27th of 32Washington: 20.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • New Jersey: hit score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

      New Jersey: hit score 76 (100 is league average)27th of 32New Jersey: 20.7 hits recorded per 6030th of 32

    • Washington: hit score 99 (100 is league average)17th of 32Washington: 27.1 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

      Washington: hit score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32Washington: 31.8 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • New Jersey: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      New Jersey: 42.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

    • Washington: 43.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

      Washington: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • New Jersey: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

      New Jersey: 6.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

    • Washington: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

      Washington: 6.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • New Jersey: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      New Jersey: 9.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

    • Washington: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Washington: 9.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      New Jersey: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

    • Washington: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Washington: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • New Jersey: 0.09 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

      New Jersey: 1.48 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

    • Washington: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

      Washington: 1.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Washington is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New Jersey Devils

Washington Capitals

Worth knowing

  • New Jersey C. Brown is out and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. A. Mantha has taken his spot beside J. Bratt and J. Hughes.
  • Washington M. Roy is day to day (lower body injury) and has missed the last 2 games. He is a top-four defenseman. T. Liljegren has taken his spot beside J. Chychrun.

Who Washington is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Washington group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are New Jersey’s, named in each box.

New Jersey’s lines tonightL1 Meier · Hischier · EvangelistaL2 Rodrigues · Gritsyuk · MercerL3 Glass · Boqvist · LombardiL4 Mantha · Bratt · Hughes

Washington forward lines against New Jersey forward lines

  • L1Wilson · Tuch · DuboisNJD L139%NJD L238%NJD L314%NJD L49%
  • L2Kyrou · Protas · ProtasNJD L122%NJD L230%NJD L324%NJD L423%
  • L3Jenner · Sourdif · LeonardNJD L121%NJD L224%NJD L323%NJD L433%
  • L4Ovechkin · Strome · BeauvillierNJD L124%NJD L223%NJD L320%NJD L432%

Washington defense pairs against New Jersey forward lines

  • P1Chychrun · LiljegrenNJD L127%NJD L233%NJD L320%NJD L420%
  • P2Desharnais · FehérváryNJD L131%NJD L229%NJD L316%NJD L424%
  • P3McIlrath · HutsonNJD L112%NJD L28%NJD L341%NJD L439%

Based on 2 Washington home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

New Jersey power play against Washington penalty kill

  • New Jersey power play

    8.2 expected goals per 60 · 7th of 32

  • Washington penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 27th of 32

New Jersey power play

PP164% of the time

Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60

  • L. HughesQuarterback
  • J. HughesDistributor
  • N. HischierTrigger
  • L. EvangelistaNet-front
  • J. BrattNet-front

PP233% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • D. HamiltonQuarterback
  • T. MeierTrigger
  • E. Rodrigues
  • A. Mantha
  • A. GritsyukDistributor

 

Where New Jersey’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Washington penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Allen40 starts · 1109 shots, this season and last

+13.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 545 shots
Medium-danger save %
.907 386 shots
High-danger save %
.657 178 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.38
Quality starts
58%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenN. DawsL. ThompsonC. Lindgren

L. Thompson60 starts · 1672 shots, this season and last

+42.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 839 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 569 shots
High-danger save %
.739 264 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.55
Quality starts
70%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: +13.0 goals saved above expected in 40 starts
    • L. Thompson: +42.1 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 28.1 shots faced per 60
    • L. Thompson: 27.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0.38 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Thompson: 0.55 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 58% of the time
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 70% of the time

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Allen3 starts · 77 shots, this season

+0.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 34 shots
Medium-danger save %
.862 29 shots
High-danger save %
.786 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. AllenN. DawsL. ThompsonC. Lindgren

L. Thompson3 starts · 85 shots, this season

+4.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
.917 36 shots
High-danger save %
.857 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.33
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Allen: +0.1 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • L. Thompson: +4.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Allen: 25.5 shots faced per 60
    • L. Thompson: 28.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Thompson: 1.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Allen: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Allen: a quality start 67% of the time
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 100% of the time

J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
New JerseyWashingtonLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57%54.5%
  • Power play20.4%16%
  • Rebound3%11.6%
  • Empty net7.7%9.5%
  • Off a turnover4.3%4.4%
  • Goalie pulled4.3%1.8%
  • Shorthanded2.6%1.1%
  • Off a faceoff win0.9%1.1%

235 New Jersey goals and 275 Washington goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play40%42.9%
  • Power play40%14.3%
  • Rebound10%7.1%
  • Empty net0%7.1%
  • Off a turnover10%28.6%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

10 New Jersey goals and 14 Washington goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New Jersey Devils · Washington Capitals