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CAR

Carolina Hurricanes

3-1-1

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

3-1-1

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

3:30 PM ET · Canada Life Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Jets want Scheifele away from the big guns

The Jets are 3-1-1. The Hurricanes have won three straight, the last a 7-2 rout of Vancouver. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg’s best way through is getting good looks.

The Jets are 3-1-1. The Hurricanes have won three straight, the last a 7-2 rout of Vancouver. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg can make it interesting if they get good looks.

At home, Scott Arniel likes to pick matchups, so watch who goes out against the Hurricanes’ third line. The Hurricanes shoot a lot, and the Jets give up plenty.

Who to watch

  • MissingJosh Morrissey has missed the Jets’ latest game.
  • Hot streakSebastian Aho has a point in four straight games.
  • Hot streakAndrei Svechnikov has a point in four straight games.
  • Still outSeth Jarvis hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Jets want Scheifele away from the big guns

    At home, the Jets keep sending Scheifele’s line (Scheifele, Connor and Perfetti) out against opponents’ third lines, far more often than chance would. That’s Scott Arniel chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Hurricanes’ third line is Staal, Martinook and Ehlers.

    The call The Jets’ L1 (Scheifele, Connor and Perfetti) spends at least 38% of its 5-on-5 time against the Hurricanes’ third line.

    At home: 38% of this group’s 5-on-5 time against third lines, about 26% with no line matching

    Who plays against whom · Winnipeg home games this season · 3 games, 43 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. The Hurricanes should pile up the shots

    Few teams shoot like the Hurricanes, and the Jets are near the bottom of the league at keeping shots away. It could be a long night in the Jets’ end.

    The call The Hurricanes take at least their usual 65.8 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Carolina 3rd for shot volume (65.8 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Winnipeg 23rd for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

  3. The Hurricanes hound the puck; the Jets sit back

    The Hurricanes are one of the league’s best for forecheck pressure, at the hounding end; the Jets are one of the league’s worst, at the passive end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Hurricanes put more forecheck pressure on than the Jets.

    Forecheck pressure: Carolina 2nd, Winnipeg 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Carolina and Winnipeg play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Carolina HurricanesWinnipeg JetsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Carolina, 5 for Winnipeg. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Carolina: 65.8 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

      Carolina: 62.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 53.8 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 53.9 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Carolina: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Carolina: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 5.4% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Carolina: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

      Carolina: 17.1% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Winnipeg: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Carolina: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

      Carolina: 5.5% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 11.5% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Carolina: 38.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

      Carolina: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 35.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

      Winnipeg: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Carolina: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Carolina: 34.2% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Winnipeg: 24.7% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Carolina: 44.6 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

      Carolina: 40.2 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 63.4 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Carolina: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

      Carolina: an 8.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against19th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Carolina: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

      Carolina: 0.27 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 602nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.25 defensive breakdowns per 609th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Carolina: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

      Carolina: −0.25 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

    • Winnipeg: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

      Winnipeg: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Carolina: 81.4 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

      Carolina: 73.4 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

      Winnipeg: 90.1 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Carolina: forecheck score 124 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 28.8 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Carolina: 32.4 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

    • Winnipeg: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)31st of 32Winnipeg: 18.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

      Winnipeg: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)29th of 32Winnipeg: 18.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Carolina: hit score 116 (100 is league average)6th of 32Carolina: 30.5 hits recorded per 605th of 32

      Carolina: hit score 129 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Carolina: 37.3 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

    • Winnipeg: hit score 89 (100 is league average)25th of 32Winnipeg: 24.0 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Winnipeg: hit score 77 (100 is league average)26th of 32Winnipeg: 22.6 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Carolina: 44.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

      Carolina: 44.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

      Winnipeg: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Carolina: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

      Carolina: 10.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Carolina: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Carolina: 4.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Winnipeg: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Carolina: 1.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Carolina: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Carolina: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

      Carolina: 0.58 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.12 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.40 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Winnipeg is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Carolina Hurricanes

Winnipeg Jets

Worth knowing

  • Carolina S. Jarvis has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. W. Carrier has taken his spot beside S. Aho and A. Svechnikov.
  • Carolina L. Stankoven has started killing penalties: on the ice for 30% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, up from 1% last season.
  • Winnipeg J. Morrissey is day to day (upper body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-four defenseman. D. Samberg has taken his spot beside D. DeMelo.

Who Winnipeg is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Winnipeg group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Carolina’s, named in each box.

Carolina’s lines tonightL1 Hall · Stankoven · BlakeL2 Carrier · Aho · SvechnikovL3 Staal · Martinook · EhlersL4 Jankowski · Robinson · Kotkaniemi

Winnipeg forward lines against Carolina forward lines

  • L1Scheifele · Connor · PerfettiCAR L128%CAR L212%CAR L338%CAR L423%
  • L2Vilardi · Barron · BjörckCAR L136%CAR L225%CAR L310%CAR L429%
  • L3Lowry · Iafallo · RosenCAR L10%CAR L253%CAR L336%CAR L410%
  • L4Namestnikov · Koepke · LambertCAR L132%CAR L29%CAR L313%CAR L447%

Winnipeg defense pairs against Carolina forward lines

  • P1DeMelo · SambergCAR L125%CAR L223%CAR L329%CAR L424%
  • P2Ferraro · PionkCAR L128%CAR L215%CAR L330%CAR L427%
  • P3Fleury · BauerCAR L118%CAR L267%CAR L35%CAR L410%

Based on 3 Winnipeg home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Carolina power play against Winnipeg penalty kill

  • Carolina power play

    8.3 expected goals per 60 · 6th of 32

  • Winnipeg penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 11th of 32

Worth knowing

  • J. Staal is sent out to take power-play faceoffs, then changes. He has taken 68% of the team’s power-play draws but stays on for about 20 seconds at a time, against 61 for the regulars, and is most often replaced by N. Ehlers (15 of 18 changes).

Carolina power play

PP171% of the time

Creates 8.9 expected goals per 60

  • S. GostisbehereQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth units
  • S. Aho
  • A. SvechnikovTrigger
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor

PP229% of the time

Creates 7.8 expected goals per 60

  • K. MillerQuarterback
  • J. Blakeboth unitsTrigger
  • N. Ehlers(J. Staal)both unitsDistributor
  • L. StankovenNet-front
  • T. HallNet-front

 

Where Carolina’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Winnipeg penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

B. Bussi42 starts · 980 shots, this season and last

+1.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 461 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 350 shots
High-danger save %
.692 169 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.26
Quality starts
52%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiP. KochetkovS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner51 starts · 1367 shots, this season and last

+13.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 640 shots
Medium-danger save %
.885 503 shots
High-danger save %
.661 224 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.35
Quality starts
53%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: +1.0 goals saved above expected in 42 starts
    • S. Skinner: +13.4 goals saved above expected in 51 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 23.1 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 26.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0.26 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0.35 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 84 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 52% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 53% of the time

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

B. Bussi3 starts · 67 shots, this season

−2.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.933 30 shots
Medium-danger save %
.909 22 shots
High-danger save %
.600 15 shots
Shots faced per 60
21.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesB. BussiP. KochetkovS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner3 starts · 100 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 56 shots
Medium-danger save %
.912 34 shots
High-danger save %
.600 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • B. Bussi: −2.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • S. Skinner: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • B. Bussi: 21.7 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 32.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 8.2% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 6.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • B. Bussi: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 106 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 33% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 67% of the time

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CarolinaWinnipegLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play55.9%56.8%
  • Power play20.6%19.1%
  • Rebound5.9%8.7%
  • Empty net6.4%5.4%
  • Off a turnover5.1%3.3%
  • Goalie pulled2.7%2.1%
  • Shorthanded2.9%2.1%
  • Off a faceoff win0.5%2.5%

374 Carolina goals and 241 Winnipeg goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play44.4%53.8%
  • Power play38.9%30.8%
  • Rebound0%15.4%
  • Empty net5.6%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded5.6%0%
  • Off a faceoff win5.6%0%

18 Carolina goals and 13 Winnipeg goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Carolina Hurricanes · Winnipeg Jets