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WSH

Washington Capitals

3-1-0

CAR

Carolina Hurricanes

3-1-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

6:45 PM ET · Lenovo Center

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Carolina

The Capitals already came to Carolina once this season and left with a 5-2 win. The Hurricanes have won three straight, the last a 7-2 rout of Vancouver. The Capitals have won two in a row. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Anything short of a win would be a surprise, though Washington can make a game of it if they get good looks.

The Capitals already came to Carolina once this season and left with a 5-2 win. The Hurricanes have won three straight, the last a 7-2 rout of Vancouver. The Capitals have won two in a row. Carolina has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Washington could still pull it off if they get good looks, but they might need a miracle.

At home, Rod Brind'Amour likes to pick matchups, so watch who goes out against the Capitals’ second line. The Hurricanes pounce on loose pucks, and the Capitals cough them up.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themAlex Tuch has seven goals in ten games against Carolina since 2023-24, most of them with Buffalo.
  • MissingMatt Roy has missed the Capitals’ last two games.
  • Hot streakSebastian Aho has a point in four straight games.
  • Hot streakAndrei Svechnikov has a point in four straight games.

  1. The Hurricanes will hunt a mismatch

    At home, the Hurricanes keep sending Blake’s line (Hall, Stankoven and Blake) out against opponents’ second lines, far more often than chance would. That’s Rod Brind'Amour chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Capitals’ second line is Kyrou, A. Protas and I. Protas.

    The call The Hurricanes’ L1 (Hall, Stankoven and Blake) spends at least 48% of its 5-on-5 time against the Capitals’ second line.

    At home: 48% of this group’s 5-on-5 time against second lines, about 28% with no line matching

    Who plays against whom · Carolina home games this season · 3 games, 32 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. The Hurricanes feed on mistakes, and the Capitals make them

    The Hurricanes turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Capitals are the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Capitals.

    The call The Hurricanes get at least their usual 7.8% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Carolina 2nd for chances off turnovers (7.8% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Washington 32nd for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 4 games this season

  3. The Capitals should get some good looks

    The Capitals make their shots count, and the Hurricanes are the league’s worst at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Capitals to get some real chances.

    The call The Capitals’ average shot has at least their usual 6.7% chance of going in.

    Washington 6th for shot quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Carolina 32nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

  4. The Hurricanes kill penalties far better than the Capitals

    On the penalty kill, Carolina is one of the league’s best and Washington is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Hurricanes’ penalty kill allows less per 60 than the Capitals’.

    Penalty kill: Carolina 3rd, Washington 27th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Washington and Carolina play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Washington CapitalsCarolina HurricanesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Washington, 5 for Carolina. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Washington: 57.0 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      Washington: 56.6 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

    • Carolina: 65.8 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

      Carolina: 62.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Washington: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Washington: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

    • Carolina: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Carolina: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Washington: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

      Washington: 13.6% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

    • Carolina: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

      Carolina: 17.1% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Washington: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Washington: 11.5% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

    • Carolina: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

      Carolina: 5.5% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Washington: 35.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

      Washington: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

    • Carolina: 38.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

      Carolina: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Washington: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

      Washington: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

    • Carolina: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Carolina: 34.2% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Washington: 57.9 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

      Washington: 57.1 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

    • Carolina: 44.6 shot attempts allowed per 601st of 32

      Carolina: 40.2 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Washington: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Washington: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

    • Carolina: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

      Carolina: an 8.1% chance of scoring on the average shot against32nd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Washington: 0.52 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

      Washington: 1.02 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

    • Carolina: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

      Carolina: 0.27 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Washington: +0.24 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

      Washington: +1.59 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

    • Carolina: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

      Carolina: −0.25 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Washington: 82.8 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      Washington: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

    • Carolina: 81.4 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

      Carolina: 73.4 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Washington: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)25th of 32Washington: 20.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

      Washington: forecheck score 80 (100 is league average)27th of 32Washington: 20.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

    • Carolina: forecheck score 124 (100 is league average)2nd of 32Carolina: 28.8 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

      Carolina: forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Carolina: 32.4 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Washington: hit score 100 (100 is league average)17th of 32Washington: 27.1 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

      Washington: hit score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32Washington: 31.8 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

    • Carolina: hit score 116 (100 is league average)6th of 32Carolina: 30.5 hits recorded per 605th of 32

      Carolina: hit score 129 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Carolina: 37.3 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Washington: 43.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

      Washington: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

    • Carolina: 44.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

      Carolina: 44.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six6th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Washington: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

      Washington: 6.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

    • Carolina: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play6th of 32

      Carolina: 10.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Washington: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Washington: 9.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

    • Carolina: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Carolina: 4.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Washington: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Washington: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • Carolina: 1.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Carolina: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Washington: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

      Washington: 1.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

    • Carolina: 0.05 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

      Carolina: 0.58 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Carolina is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Washington Capitals

Carolina Hurricanes

Worth knowing

  • Washington M. Roy is day to day (lower body injury) and has missed the last 2 games. He is a top-four defenseman. T. Liljegren has taken his spot beside J. Chychrun.
  • Carolina S. Jarvis has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. W. Carrier has taken his spot beside S. Aho and A. Svechnikov.
  • Carolina L. Stankoven has started killing penalties: on the ice for 30% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, up from 1% last season.

Who Carolina is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Carolina group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Washington’s, named in each box.

Washington’s lines tonightL1 Wilson · Tuch · DuboisL2 Kyrou · Protas · ProtasL3 Jenner · Sourdif · LeonardL4 Ovechkin · Strome · Beauvillier

Carolina forward lines against Washington forward lines

  • L1Hall · Stankoven · BlakeWSH L119%WSH L248%WSH L319%WSH L414%
  • L2Carrier · Aho · SvechnikovWSH L133%WSH L234%WSH L318%WSH L416%
  • L3Staal · Martinook · EhlersWSH L157%WSH L29%WSH L322%WSH L412%
  • L4Jankowski · Robinson · KotkaniemiWSH L122%WSH L211%WSH L337%WSH L430%

Carolina defense pairs against Washington forward lines

  • P1Walker · MillerWSH L135%WSH L230%WSH L316%WSH L419%
  • P2Slavin · ChatfieldWSH L138%WSH L222%WSH L323%WSH L418%
  • P3Reilly · GostisbehereWSH L113%WSH L232%WSH L333%WSH L423%

Based on 3 Carolina home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Washington power play against Carolina penalty kill

  • Washington power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 18th of 32

  • Carolina penalty kill

    6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 3rd of 32

Washington power play

PP166% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • J. ChychrunQuarterback
  • A. OvechkinTrigger
  • P. DuboisNet-front
  • D. StromeDistributor
  • T. WilsonNet-front

PP234% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. HutsonQuarterback
  • A. Tuch
  • J. Kyrou
  • R. LeonardTrigger
  • I. Protas

 

Where Washington’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Carolina penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

L. Thompson60 starts · 1672 shots, this season and last

+42.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 839 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 569 shots
High-danger save %
.739 264 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.55
Quality starts
70%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. ThompsonC. LindgrenB. BussiP. Kochetkov

B. Bussi42 starts · 980 shots, this season and last

+1.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 461 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 350 shots
High-danger save %
.692 169 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.26
Quality starts
52%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Thompson: +42.1 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
    • B. Bussi: +1.0 goals saved above expected in 42 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Thompson: 27.7 shots faced per 60
    • B. Bussi: 23.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Thompson: 0.55 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • B. Bussi: 0.26 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 84 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 70% of the time
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 52% of the time

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Thompson3 starts · 85 shots, this season

+4.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
.917 36 shots
High-danger save %
.857 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.33
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. ThompsonC. LindgrenB. BussiP. Kochetkov

B. Bussi3 starts · 67 shots, this season

−2.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.933 30 shots
Medium-danger save %
.909 22 shots
High-danger save %
.600 15 shots
Shots faced per 60
21.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
33%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Thompson: +4.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • B. Bussi: −2.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Thompson: 28.4 shots faced per 60
    • B. Bussi: 21.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in
    • B. Bussi: the average shot he faces has a 8.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Thompson: 1.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • B. Bussi: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • B. Bussi: a typical wait of 106 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 100% of the time
    • B. Bussi: a quality start 33% of the time

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

B. Bussi, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
WashingtonCarolinaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54.5%55.9%
  • Power play16%20.6%
  • Rebound11.6%5.9%
  • Empty net9.5%6.4%
  • Off a turnover4.4%5.1%
  • Goalie pulled1.8%2.7%
  • Shorthanded1.1%2.9%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%0.5%

275 Washington goals and 374 Carolina goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play42.9%44.4%
  • Power play14.3%38.9%
  • Rebound7.1%0%
  • Empty net7.1%5.6%
  • Off a turnover28.6%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%5.6%
  • Off a faceoff win0%5.6%

14 Washington goals and 18 Carolina goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Washington Capitals · Carolina Hurricanes