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DAL

Dallas Stars

2-2-0

CHI

Chicago Blackhawks

1-5-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

7:00 PM ET · United Center

The short version

Before the game

The Blackhawks’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

The Blackhawks are 1-5-0. The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. Dallas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Chicago has home ice. Chicago can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Blackhawks are 1-5-0. The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. Dallas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Chicago has home ice. Chicago can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Stars make their shots count, and the Blackhawks allow dangerous ones. The Stars and the Blackhawks sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • MissingFrank Nazar has missed the Blackhawks’ latest game.
  • Still outM. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outConnor Bedard hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Slow startWyatt Johnston is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. The Blackhawks’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

    The Blackhawks have struggled to prevent dangerous shots, and the Stars don’t waste many.

    The call The Stars’ average shot has at least their usual 6.7% chance of going in.

    Dallas 4th for shot quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Chicago 23rd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 6 games this season

  2. In close against from distance

    On shots from in close, Dallas is one of the league’s best and Chicago is the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Stars take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Blackhawks.

    Shots from in close: Dallas 2nd, Chicago 32nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 6 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Dallas and Chicago play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Dallas StarsChicago BlackhawksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 6 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Dallas, 6 for Chicago. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Dallas: 53.8 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Dallas: 56.9 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

    • Chicago: 45.5 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

      Chicago: 42.8 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Dallas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

    • Chicago: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

      Chicago: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      Dallas: 12.0% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

    • Chicago: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

      Chicago: 8.7% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Dallas: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Dallas: 8.2% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

    • Chicago: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

      Chicago: 5.2% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Dallas: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

      Dallas: 32.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

    • Chicago: 34.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

      Chicago: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Dallas: 33.0% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

      Dallas: 33.1% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

    • Chicago: 26.7% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

      Chicago: 26.2% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Dallas: 53.6 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Dallas: 51.8 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

    • Chicago: 61.5 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

      Chicago: 64.1 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Dallas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

    • Chicago: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      Chicago: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Dallas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Chicago: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Chicago: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Dallas: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

      Dallas: +1.16 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

    • Chicago: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

      Chicago: −0.22 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Dallas: 74.5 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 72.2 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

    • Chicago: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

      Chicago: 81.3 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Dallas: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)20th of 32Dallas: 21.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)18th of 32Dallas: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

    • Chicago: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)29th of 32Chicago: 18.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

      Chicago: forecheck score 83 (100 is league average)25th of 32Chicago: 19.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Dallas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)21st of 32Dallas: 26.0 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      Dallas: hit score 99 (100 is league average)17th of 32Dallas: 29.2 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

    • Chicago: hit score 73 (100 is league average)31st of 32Chicago: 19.3 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

      Chicago: hit score 67 (100 is league average)31st of 32Chicago: 19.4 hits recorded per 6031st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Dallas: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

      Dallas: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

    • Chicago: 41.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

      Chicago: 42.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Dallas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 10.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

    • Chicago: 6.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

      Chicago: 4.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Dallas: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      Dallas: 3.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

    • Chicago: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

      Chicago: 6.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

    • Chicago: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Chicago: 2.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Dallas: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      Dallas: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

    • Chicago: 0.07 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

      Chicago: 0.17 more penalties taken than drawn per 6017th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Chicago is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 6 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Dallas Stars

Chicago Blackhawks

Worth knowing

  • Dallas M. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.
  • Chicago F. Nazar is suspended and missed their last game. He is a top-six forward.
  • Chicago C. Bedard has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.
  • Chicago T. Teravainen is no longer playing on the power play: 0% of the team’s power-play time in 4 games, down from 58% last season.

Who Chicago is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Chicago group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Dallas’s, named in each box.

Dallas’s lines tonightL1 Benn · Hintz · RobertsonL2 Seguin · Hryckowian · HyryL3 Rantanen · Steel · JohnstonL4 Blackwell · Faksa · Bäck

Chicago forward lines against Dallas forward lines

  • L1Bertuzzi · Kantserov · FrondellDAL L123%DAL L254%DAL L317%DAL L45%
  • L2Greenway · Smith · GreeneDAL L139%DAL L212%DAL L329%DAL L420%
  • L3Teravainen · Toninato · DonatoDAL L129%DAL L21%DAL L318%DAL L452%
  • L4Kane · Nazar · LardisDAL L130%DAL L229%DAL L321%DAL L420%

Chicago defense pairs against Dallas forward lines

  • P1Byram · LevshunovDAL L132%DAL L228%DAL L320%DAL L420%
  • P2Cole · VlasicDAL L145%DAL L233%DAL L37%DAL L414%
  • P3Kaiser · RinzelDAL L18%DAL L223%DAL L336%DAL L432%

Based on 2 Chicago home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Dallas power play against Chicago penalty kill

  • Dallas power play

    9.0 expected goals per 60 · 3rd of 32

  • Chicago penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 14th of 32

Dallas power play

PP173% of the time

Creates 9.3 expected goals per 60

  • M. HeiskanenQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsDistributor
  • J. Robertson
  • W. JohnstonTrigger
  • R. HintzNet-front

PP227% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • T. HarleyQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsTrigger
  • J. HryckowianNet-front
  • T. SeguinNet-front
  • J. Benn

 

Where Dallas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Chicago penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Oettinger55 starts · 1433 shots, this season and last

+12.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 755 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 476 shots
High-danger save %
.718 202 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithS. KnightA. Soderblom

S. Knight59 starts · 1712 shots, this season and last

+14.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 848 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 614 shots
High-danger save %
.740 250 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
49%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +12.3 goals saved above expected in 55 starts
    • S. Knight: +14.4 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 25.5 shots faced per 60
    • S. Knight: 29.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • S. Knight: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Knight: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
    • S. Knight: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 62% of the time
    • S. Knight: a quality start 49% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Knight, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger3 starts · 61 shots, this season

+4.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 18 shots
High-danger save %
.750 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithS. KnightA. Soderblom

S. Knight4 starts · 129 shots, this season

−1.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.983 60 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 49 shots
High-danger save %
.650 20 shots
Shots faced per 60
33.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
25%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +4.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • S. Knight: −1.1 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 20.5 shots faced per 60
    • S. Knight: 33.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • S. Knight: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Knight: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • S. Knight: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time
    • S. Knight: a quality start 25% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Knight, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
DallasChicagoLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.7%59.3%
  • Power play26.5%18.1%
  • Rebound7%7.7%
  • Empty net4%5%
  • Off a turnover2%4.5%
  • Goalie pulled3.7%0.9%
  • Shorthanded1.3%2.3%
  • Off a faceoff win2.7%2.3%

298 Dallas goals and 221 Chicago goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play80%63.6%
  • Power play10%9.1%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%18.2%
  • Off a turnover10%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%9.1%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

10 Dallas goals and 11 Chicago goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Dallas Stars · Chicago Blackhawks