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DAL

Dallas Stars

2-2-0

COL

Colorado Avalanche

3-1-0

Has last change

Wednesday, October 14

8:30 PM ET · Ball Arena

The short version

Before the game

MacKinnon’s favourite opponent

The Avalanche are 3-1-0. The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Dallas can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

The Avalanche are 3-1-0. The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Dallas’s best way through is a penalty kill that holds up.

It’s strength against strength: the Stars for the power play, the Avalanche at the penalty kill. The Stars and the Avalanche sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Old teamJoel Kiviranta faces Colorado for the first time since leaving.
  • Owns themNathan MacKinnon has a point in ten straight games against Dallas, and 18 points in his last eleven against them.
  • Still outM. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Slow startWyatt Johnston is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. The matchup inside the matchup

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for the power play, and the Avalanche are one of the league’s best at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Stars’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.5 expected goals per 60 against the Avalanche.

    Dallas 3rd for the power play (9.0 expected goals per 60) · Colorado 2nd for the penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. Strength against strength

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for chance quality, and the Avalanche are one of the league’s best at preventing dangerous shots. We’ll side with the Avalanche’s defense.

    The call The Avalanche keep the Stars’ chances less dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot).

    Dallas 4th for chance quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Colorado 2nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  3. In close against from distance

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for shots from in close, at the close-range end; the Avalanche are one of the league’s worst, at the long-range end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Stars take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Avalanche.

    Shots from in close: Dallas 2nd, Colorado 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Dallas and Colorado play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Dallas StarsColorado AvalancheLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Dallas, 4 for Colorado. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Dallas: 53.8 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Dallas: 56.9 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

    • Colorado: 70.2 shot attempts per 601st of 32

      Colorado: 69.3 shot attempts per 604th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Dallas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

    • Colorado: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

      Colorado: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      Dallas: 12.0% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

    • Colorado: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

      Colorado: 5.9% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Dallas: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Dallas: 8.2% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

    • Colorado: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

      Colorado: 10.6% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Dallas: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

      Dallas: 32.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

    • Colorado: 37.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

      Colorado: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Dallas: 33.0% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

      Dallas: 33.1% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

    • Colorado: 27.5% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

      Colorado: 25.6% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Dallas: 53.6 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Dallas: 51.8 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

    • Colorado: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

      Colorado: 56.0 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Dallas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

    • Colorado: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

      Colorado: a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Dallas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6010th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Colorado: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

      Colorado: 0.61 defensive breakdowns per 6021st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Dallas: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

      Dallas: +1.16 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

    • Colorado: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Colorado: −0.50 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Dallas: 74.5 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 72.2 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32

    • Colorado: 89.0 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

      Colorado: 92.1 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Dallas: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)20th of 32Dallas: 21.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)18th of 32Dallas: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6017th of 32

    • Colorado: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Colorado: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Colorado: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Colorado: 21.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Dallas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)21st of 32Dallas: 26.0 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

      Dallas: hit score 99 (100 is league average)17th of 32Dallas: 29.2 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

    • Colorado: hit score 85 (100 is league average)27th of 32Colorado: 22.5 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

      Colorado: hit score 85 (100 is league average)24th of 32Colorado: 24.9 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Dallas: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

      Dallas: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

    • Colorado: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

      Colorado: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Dallas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 10.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

    • Colorado: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

      Colorado: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Dallas: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Dallas: 3.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

    • Colorado: 6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      Colorado: 4.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

    • Colorado: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

      Colorado: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Dallas: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

      Dallas: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

    • Colorado: 0.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      Colorado: 0.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Colorado is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Dallas Stars

Colorado Avalanche

Worth knowing

  • Dallas M. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.

Who Colorado is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Colorado group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Dallas’s, named in each box.

Dallas’s lines tonightL1 Benn · Hintz · RobertsonL2 Seguin · Hryckowian · HyryL3 Rantanen · Steel · JohnstonL4 Blackwell · Faksa · Bäck

Colorado forward lines against Dallas forward lines

  • L1Schwartz · Svechkov · HughesDAL L119%DAL L232%DAL L331%DAL L418%
  • L2Kadri · Lehkonen · MacKinnonDAL L144%DAL L218%DAL L326%DAL L412%
  • L3Nelson · Landeskog · NecasDAL L132%DAL L244%DAL L318%DAL L46%
  • L4Roy · Kelly · L'HeureuxDAL L132%DAL L224%DAL L326%DAL L417%

Colorado defense pairs against Dallas forward lines

  • P1Toews · MakarDAL L149%DAL L215%DAL L320%DAL L417%
  • P2Burns · MansonDAL L115%DAL L245%DAL L328%DAL L412%
  • P3Kulak · JuulsenDAL L126%DAL L235%DAL L329%DAL L411%

Based on 2 Colorado home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Dallas power play against Colorado penalty kill

  • Dallas power play

    9.0 expected goals per 60 · 3rd of 32

  • Colorado penalty kill

    6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 · 2nd of 32

Dallas power play

PP173% of the time

Creates 9.3 expected goals per 60

  • M. HeiskanenQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsDistributor
  • J. Robertson
  • W. JohnstonTrigger
  • R. HintzNet-front

PP227% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • T. HarleyQuarterback
  • M. Rantanenboth unitsTrigger
  • J. HryckowianNet-front
  • T. SeguinNet-front
  • J. Benn

 

Where Dallas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Colorado penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Oettinger55 starts · 1433 shots, this season and last

+12.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 755 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 476 shots
High-danger save %
.718 202 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithM. BlackwoodS. Wedgewood

M. Blackwood39 starts · 1009 shots, this season and last

+5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 527 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 348 shots
High-danger save %
.694 134 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +12.3 goals saved above expected in 55 starts
    • M. Blackwood: +5.4 goals saved above expected in 39 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 25.5 shots faced per 60
    • M. Blackwood: 25.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • M. Blackwood: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 62% of the time
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 67% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger3 starts · 61 shots, this season

+4.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 18 shots
High-danger save %
.750 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. OettingerC. DeSmithM. BlackwoodS. Wedgewood

M. Blackwood3 starts · 76 shots, this season

−1.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.953 43 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 28 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
33%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Oettinger: +4.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • M. Blackwood: −1.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Oettinger: 20.5 shots faced per 60
    • M. Blackwood: 25.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 5.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • M. Blackwood: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 81 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 33% of the time

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
DallasColoradoLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.7%57.3%
  • Power play26.5%14.5%
  • Rebound7%8.8%
  • Empty net4%7.9%
  • Off a turnover2%6%
  • Goalie pulled3.7%2.7%
  • Shorthanded1.3%1.1%
  • Off a faceoff win2.7%1.6%

298 Dallas goals and 365 Colorado goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play80%69.6%
  • Power play10%17.4%
  • Rebound0%4.3%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover10%8.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

10 Dallas goals and 23 Colorado goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Dallas Stars · Colorado Avalanche