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ANA

Anaheim Ducks

0-0-0

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

1-0-0

Has last change

Friday, October 2

10:00 PM ET · T-Mobile Arena

The short version

Before the game

Eichel’s favourite opponent

The Ducks already came to Vegas once this season and left with a 4-3 win. The Ducks come in at 1-0-0, the Golden Knights at 1-1-0. Vegas has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Anaheim can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Ducks already came to Vegas once this season and left with a 4-3 win. The Ducks come in at 1-0-0, the Golden Knights at 1-1-0. Vegas has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Anaheim can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

It’s strength against strength: the Ducks for shot volume, the Golden Knights at keeping shots away. The Golden Knights make their shots count, and the Ducks allow dangerous ones.

Who to watch

  • Owns themJack Eichel has a point in nine straight games against Anaheim.
  • Leads the wayLeo Carlsson leads the Ducks with two points.

  1. Strength against strength

    The Ducks are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Golden Knights are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We’ll side with the Ducks.

    The call The Ducks take more than the league-average 56.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights.

    Anaheim 4th for shot volume (62.9 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Vegas 5th for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 0 and 1 games this season

  2. The Ducks’ goalie is in for some dangerous shots

    The Golden Knights make their shots count, and the Ducks are one of the league’s worst at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Golden Knights to get some real chances.

    The call The Golden Knights’ average shot has at least their usual 6.5% chance of going in.

    Vegas 9th for shot quality (a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Anaheim 28th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 1 and 0 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Anaheim and Vegas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Anaheim DucksVegas Golden KnightsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 0 and 1 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 0 games for Anaheim, 1 for Vegas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Anaheim: 62.9 shot attempts per 604th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 59.6 shot attempts per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 67.2 shot attempts per 605th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Anaheim: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Vegas: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Anaheim: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

      Vegas: 17.4% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Anaheim: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover30th of 32

      Vegas: 4.4% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Anaheim: 36.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen9th of 32

      Vegas: 35.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Anaheim: 30.0% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 30.8% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

      Vegas: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet11th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Anaheim: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 53.0 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

      Vegas: 46.4 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Anaheim: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

      Vegas: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Anaheim: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Anaheim: +0.02 goals saved above expected per 6029th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: +0.07 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

      Vegas: −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Anaheim: 87.8 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 79.9 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Vegas: 89.0 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Anaheim: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)10th of 32Anaheim: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)29th of 32Vegas: 18.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 64 (100 is league average)25th of 32Vegas: 16.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Anaheim: hit score 100 (100 is league average)15th of 32Anaheim: 25.6 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vegas: 24.9 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

      Vegas: hit score 76 (100 is league average)19th of 32Vegas: 26.6 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Anaheim: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 43.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

      Vegas: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Anaheim: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 8.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Vegas: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 6.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 3.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Anaheim: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Vegas: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Anaheim: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Anaheim: nothing to show yet this season

    • Vegas: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Vegas: 1.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Vegas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (0 and 1 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Anaheim Ducks

    Vegas Golden Knights

    Who Vegas is likely to send against whom

    Each strip shows how one Vegas group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Anaheim’s, named in each box.

    Anaheim’s lines tonightL1 –L2 –L3 –L4 –

    Vegas forward lines against Anaheim forward lines

    • L1Karlsson · Marner · HowdenANA L121%ANA L258%ANA L30%ANA L420%
    • L2Stone · Barbashev · EichelANA L19%ANA L251%ANA L31%ANA L439%
    • L3Hertl · Olofsson · ConnellyANA L146%ANA L215%ANA L30%ANA L440%
    • L4Dowd · Gatcomb · BowmanANA L168%ANA L219%ANA L36%ANA L47%

    Vegas defense pairs against Anaheim forward lines

    • P1Andersson · WotherspoonANA L148%ANA L231%ANA L31%ANA L420%
    • P2Hanifin · LauzonANA L138%ANA L251%ANA L30%ANA L411%
    • P3McNabb · TheodoreANA L112%ANA L227%ANA L34%ANA L458%

    Based on 1 Vegas home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

    Special teams

    Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

    Show

    Anaheim power play against Vegas penalty kill

    • Anaheim power play

      7.3 expected goals per 60 · 20th of 32

    • Vegas penalty kill

      6.7 expected goals allowed per 60 · 1st of 32

    Anaheim power play

     

    Vegas penalty kill

    Starts the kill

    Second wave

    Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

    Goaltending

    Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

    Showagainst

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. Hart

    C. Hart17 starts · 448 shots, this season and last

    −1.7 goals saved above expected

    Low-danger save %
    .957 234 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .886 166 shots
    High-danger save %
    .604 48 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    24.9
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0.22
    Quality starts
    65%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • C. Hart: −1.7 goals saved above expected in 17 starts
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • C. Hart: 24.9 shots faced per 60
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • C. Hart: 0.22 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • C. Hart: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • C. Hart: a quality start 65% of the time

    C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    Helping, or hung out to dry?

    System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. Hart

    C. Hart1 start · 26 shots, this season

    0.0 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate

    Low-danger save %
    1.000 17 shots
    Medium-danger save %
    .750 8 shots
    High-danger save %
    1.000 1 shots
    Shots faced per 60
    26
    Defensive breakdowns per 60
    0
    Quality starts
    100%
    Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
    • Stopping more than expected
      SieveWall
      • C. Hart: 0.0 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
    • How busy he is
      QuietUnder siege
      • C. Hart: 26 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • How dangerous the shots are
      ShelteredExposed
      • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 5.1% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
    • Breakdowns in front of him
      RareConstant
      • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
    • Waiting between shots
      Steady workLong waits
      • C. Hart: a typical wait of 96 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
    • Night-to-night steadiness
      StreakySteady
      • C. Hart: a quality start 100% of the time (too few starts to place)

    C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

    −3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

    The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

    Where the goals come from

    How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

    Show goals
    AnaheimVegasLeague average
    • Everyday even-strength play–%52.2%
    • Power play–%21.2%
    • Rebound–%9.9%
    • Empty net–%4.9%
    • Off a turnover–%4.1%
    • Goalie pulled–%3.8%
    • Shorthanded–%2.9%
    • Off a faceoff win–%1.2%

    0 Anaheim goals and 345 Vegas goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

    • Everyday even-strength play–%40%
    • Power play–%20%
    • Rebound–%20%
    • Empty net–%20%
    • Off a turnover–%0%
    • Goalie pulled–%0%
    • Shorthanded–%0%
    • Off a faceoff win–%0%

    0 Anaheim goals and 5 Vegas goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

    These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

    Data notes

    Team pages: Anaheim Ducks · Vegas Golden Knights