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OTT

Ottawa Senators

2-0-0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

0-2-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 6

7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

Raymond’s favourite opponent

The Red Wings are 0-2-0. The Senators have won two in a row. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games, Ottawa is playing for the second night in a row, and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can tip it if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Red Wings are 0-2-0. The Senators have won two in a row. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games, Ottawa is playing for the second night in a row, and Detroit has home ice. Detroit can still swing it if they keep shots to a minimum.

It’s strength against strength: the Red Wings for the power play, the Senators at the penalty kill. The Senators make their shots count, and the Red Wings allow dangerous ones.

Who to watch

  • Owns themLucas Raymond has a point in seven straight games against Ottawa.
  • Still outArtem Zub hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Something has to give

    The Red Wings are one of the league’s best for the power play, and the Senators are one of the league’s best at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Red Wings’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

    The call The Red Wings’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.5 expected goals per 60 against the Senators.

    Detroit 4th for the power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · Ottawa 2nd for the penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

  2. The Senators should get some good looks

    The Senators make their shots count, and the Red Wings are near the bottom of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Senators to get some real chances.

    The call The Senators’ average shot has at least their usual 6.8% chance of going in.

    Ottawa 3rd for shot quality (a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Detroit 25th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 2 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Ottawa and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Ottawa SenatorsDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 2 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Ottawa, 2 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Ottawa: 56.8 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      Ottawa: 53.8 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

    • Detroit: 55.9 shot attempts per 6020th of 32

      Detroit: 55.6 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot3rd of 32

      Ottawa: a 7.9% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 19.7% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

      Detroit: 12.8% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Ottawa: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Ottawa: 12.5% of chances come right after a turnover7th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

      Detroit: 6.2% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Ottawa: 33.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Ottawa: 26.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

    • Detroit: 33.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

      Detroit: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Ottawa: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

      Ottawa: 36.8% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

    • Detroit: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Detroit: 40.6% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Ottawa: 51.6 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

      Ottawa: 51.2 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

    • Detroit: 56.6 shot attempts allowed per 6015th of 32

      Detroit: 45.2 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32

      Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Ottawa: +0.05 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Ottawa: +1.18 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.16 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

      Detroit: +0.38 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Ottawa: 79.4 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

      Ottawa: 78.6 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

    • Detroit: 81.4 shots per 60, both teams combined19th of 32

      Detroit: 73.9 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 28.0 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 32.5 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32Detroit: 22.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 137 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Detroit: 33.2 forecheck plays recorded per 602nd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Ottawa: hit score 117 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 32.1 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 112 (100 is league average)9th of 32Ottawa: 38.6 hits recorded per 604th of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 97 (100 is league average)18th of 32Detroit: 25.1 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

      Detroit: hit score 116 (100 is league average)7th of 32Detroit: 34.3 hits recorded per 609th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Ottawa: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

      Ottawa: 39.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

    • Detroit: 40.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

      Detroit: 37.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Ottawa: 8.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

      Ottawa: 11.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

    • Detroit: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Ottawa: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      Ottawa: 5.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Ottawa: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Ottawa: 1.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Detroit: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Ottawa: 0.14 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 2 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Ottawa Senators

Detroit Red Wings

Worth knowing

  • Ottawa A. Zub has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Sanderson is out and missed their last game. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Ottawa R. Greig has been a scratch all season. He is a top-six forward.

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Ottawa’s, named in each box.

Ottawa’s lines tonightL1 Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundL2 Foegele · Batherson · StützleL3 Giroux · Amadio · PintoL4 Cousins · Hodgson · Halliday

Detroit forward lines against Ottawa forward lines

  • L1Copp · DeBrincat · RaymondOTT L136%OTT L222%OTT L327%OTT L414%
  • L2Compher · Kolesar · RasmussenOTT L123%OTT L220%OTT L330%OTT L426%
  • L3Arvidsson · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdOTT L140%OTT L225%OTT L321%OTT L413%
  • L4OTT L1–OTT L2–OTT L3–OTT L4–

Detroit defense pairs against Ottawa forward lines

  • P1Seider · JohanssonOTT L142%OTT L219%OTT L324%OTT L414%
  • P2Faulk · JohanssonOTT L133%OTT L220%OTT L327%OTT L420%
  • P3Chiarot · Sandin-PellikkaOTT L115%OTT L231%OTT L325%OTT L428%

Based on 2 Detroit home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Ottawa power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • Ottawa power play

    8.0 expected goals per 60 · 8th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 21st of 32

Ottawa power play

PP156% of the time

Creates 7.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. YakemchukQuarterback
  • W. Eklund
  • D. Cozens
  • T. StützleDistributor
  • D. BathersonTrigger

PP244% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • T. ChabotQuarterback
  • S. PintoTrigger
  • C. GirouxDistributor
  • S. HallidayNet-front
  • F. Zetterlund

 

Where Ottawa’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

L. Ullmark49 starts · 1237 shots, this season and last

−3.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 633 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 423 shots
High-danger save %
.624 181 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
61%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. UllmarkS. ErssonJ. Gibson

J. Gibson57 starts · 1508 shots, this season and last

+18.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 752 shots
Medium-danger save %
.872 549 shots
High-danger save %
.720 207 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.45
Quality starts
51%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Ullmark: −3.5 goals saved above expected in 49 starts
    • J. Gibson: +18.3 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Ullmark: 24.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.45 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 61% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 51% of the time

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark2 starts · 39 shots, this season

+2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 21 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 16 shots
High-danger save %
1.000 2 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesL. UllmarkS. ErssonJ. Gibson

J. Gibson2 starts · 47 shots, this season

+0.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 22 shots
Medium-danger save %
.864 22 shots
High-danger save %
.667 3 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • L. Ullmark: +2.5 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Gibson: +0.7 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • L. Ullmark: 23.4 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 24.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 98 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 50% of the time

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
OttawaDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.3%53.9%
  • Power play22.3%23.2%
  • Rebound7.3%4.1%
  • Empty net6.6%8.7%
  • Off a turnover4.2%4.6%
  • Goalie pulled2.4%2.5%
  • Shorthanded2.4%1.2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.4%1.7%

287 Ottawa goals and 241 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%50%
  • Power play14.3%50%
  • Rebound14.3%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded14.3%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

7 Ottawa goals and 2 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Ottawa Senators · Detroit Red Wings