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COL

Colorado Avalanche

2-0-0

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

2-0-1

Has last change

Wednesday, October 7

7:30 PM ET · Canada Life Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Avalanche are going to test the Jets’ goalie early and often

The Jets have won two in a row. The Avalanche have won two in a row, the last a 6-1 rout of St. Louis. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg’s best way through is a penalty kill that holds up.

The Jets have won two in a row. The Avalanche have won two in a row, the last a 6-1 rout of St. Louis. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg’s way back in is a penalty kill that holds up.

The Avalanche shoot a lot, and the Jets give up plenty. Both teams like a fast game.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themMartin Necas has four goals in six games against Winnipeg since 2023-24.
  • Haunts themGabriel Vilardi has seven goals in eleven games against Colorado since 2023-24.

  1. The Avalanche are going to test the Jets’ goalie early and often

    Winnipeg has been giving up shots all season, and the Avalanche rarely pass one up.

    The call The Avalanche take at least their usual 69.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Colorado 1st for shot volume (69.5 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Winnipeg 22nd for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

  2. Nobody’s sitting back in this one

    Colorado plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Winnipeg. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at more than 88.2 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Colorado 1st (88.2), Winnipeg 10th (83.2)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 2 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Colorado and Winnipeg play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Colorado AvalancheWinnipeg JetsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 2 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 2 games for Colorado, 3 for Winnipeg. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Colorado: 69.5 shot attempts per 601st of 32

      Colorado: 66.4 shot attempts per 605th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 55.2 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      Winnipeg: 57.0 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Colorado: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

      Colorado: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Colorado: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

      Colorado: 7.4% of chances come from rebounds23rd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

      Winnipeg: 13.9% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Colorado: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

      Colorado: 18.5% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

      Winnipeg: 10.8% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Colorado: 38.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

      Colorado: 33.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen17th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 35.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

      Winnipeg: 32.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Colorado: 28.1% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

      Colorado: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 29.8% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 25.2% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Colorado: 53.4 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

      Colorado: 56.5 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 59.0 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 67.2 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Colorado: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Colorado: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Colorado: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Colorado: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 602nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Colorado: +0.11 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

      Colorado: −0.25 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

    • Winnipeg: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

      Winnipeg: +0.80 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Colorado: 88.2 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

      Colorado: 87.5 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 83.2 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      Winnipeg: 96.5 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Colorado: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 32Colorado: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

      Colorado: forecheck score 69 (100 is league average)31st of 32Colorado: 16.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

    • Winnipeg: forecheck score 83 (100 is league average)29th of 32Winnipeg: 19.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Winnipeg: forecheck score 78 (100 is league average)25th of 32Winnipeg: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Colorado: hit score 88 (100 is league average)26th of 32Colorado: 23.0 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Colorado: hit score 97 (100 is league average)19th of 32Colorado: 28.8 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

    • Winnipeg: hit score 94 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Winnipeg: 25.0 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: hit score 83 (100 is league average)24th of 32Winnipeg: 24.5 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Colorado: 39.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

      Colorado: 39.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

    • Winnipeg: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 42.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Colorado: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play19th of 32

      Colorado: 6.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Winnipeg: 12.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Colorado: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Colorado: 5.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Winnipeg: 6.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Colorado: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Colorado: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • Winnipeg: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Colorado: 0.16 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Colorado: 1.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.65 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Winnipeg is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (2 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Colorado Avalanche

Winnipeg Jets

Who Winnipeg is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Winnipeg group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Colorado’s, named in each box.

Colorado’s lines tonightL1 Lehkonen · MacKinnon · NecasL2 Kadri · Nelson · LandeskogL3 Schwartz · Svechkov · HughesL4 –

Winnipeg forward lines against Colorado forward lines

  • L1Scheifele · Connor · PerfettiCOL L156%COL L22%COL L329%COL L413%
  • L2Lowry · Barron · LambertCOL L115%COL L271%COL L310%COL L45%
  • L3Vilardi · Rosen · BjörckCOL L116%COL L219%COL L354%COL L411%
  • L4Niederreiter · Namestnikov · IafalloCOL L119%COL L216%COL L311%COL L454%

Winnipeg defense pairs against Colorado forward lines

  • P1DeMelo · MorrisseyCOL L137%COL L219%COL L333%COL L411%
  • P2Samberg · PionkCOL L122%COL L242%COL L322%COL L414%
  • P3Ferraro · St. IvanyCOL L15%COL L23%COL L35%COL L487%

Based on 1 Winnipeg home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Colorado power play against Winnipeg penalty kill

  • Colorado power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 19th of 32

  • Winnipeg penalty kill

    7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 9th of 32

Colorado power play

PP168% of the time

Creates 5.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. MakarQuarterback
  • M. NecasDistributor
  • T. Hughes
  • G. LandeskogNet-front
  • N. MacKinnonTrigger

PP232% of the time

Creates 8.3 expected goals per 60

  • D. ToewsQuarterback
  • N. KadriDistributor
  • J. Schwartz
  • A. LehkonenNet-front
  • B. NelsonTrigger

 

Where Colorado’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Winnipeg penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

M. Blackwood38 starts · 990 shots, this season and last

+6.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 517 shots
Medium-danger save %
.876 340 shots
High-danger save %
.699 133 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.37
Quality starts
68%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner50 starts · 1333 shots, this season and last

+12.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 617 shots
Medium-danger save %
.885 495 shots
High-danger save %
.661 221 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.35
Quality starts
52%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: +6.5 goals saved above expected in 38 starts
    • S. Skinner: +12.5 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 26.1 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 26.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0.37 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0.35 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 68% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 52% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

M. Blackwood2 starts · 57 shots, this season

−0.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.939 33 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 20 shots
High-danger save %
.750 4 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner2 starts · 66 shots, this season

+1.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.970 33 shots
Medium-danger save %
.923 26 shots
High-danger save %
.571 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: −0.5 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • S. Skinner: +1.3 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 28.5 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 32.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 5.4% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 50% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 50% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
ColoradoWinnipegLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.2%56.1%
  • Power play14.9%19.4%
  • Rebound9%8.9%
  • Empty net8.1%5.5%
  • Off a turnover6.2%3.4%
  • Goalie pulled2.8%2.1%
  • Shorthanded1.1%2.1%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%2.5%

356 Colorado goals and 237 Winnipeg goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%33.3%
  • Power play28.6%44.4%
  • Rebound7.1%22.2%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover14.3%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

14 Colorado goals and 9 Winnipeg goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Colorado Avalanche · Winnipeg Jets