Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

COL

Colorado Avalanche

2-1-0

CGY

Calgary Flames

0-3-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 8

9:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Saddledome

The short version

Before the game

Round two in Calgary

The Avalanche already came to Calgary once this season and left with a 7-3 win. The Flames haven’t won in four. The Avalanche are 3-1-0. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games, Colorado is playing for the second night in a row, and Calgary has home ice. Calgary could still pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks, but they might need a miracle.

The Avalanche already came to Calgary once this season and left with a 7-3 win. The Flames haven’t won in four. The Avalanche are 3-1-0. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games, Colorado is playing for the second night in a row, and Calgary has home ice. Calgary’s only real way in is pouncing on loose pucks, and they would need a near-perfect night.

It’s strength against strength: the Flames for shot volume, the Avalanche at keeping shots away. Don’t read much into Blackwood’s record against the Flames.

Who to watch

  • Owns themNathan MacKinnon has a point in five straight games against Calgary, and 20 points in his last ten against them.
  • Old teamNazem Kadri faces his old team, Calgary.

  1. The matchup inside the matchup

    The Flames are one of the league’s best for shot volume, and the Avalanche are near the top of the league at keeping shots away. We think the Flames still get theirs.

    The call The Flames take more than the league-average 56.3 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Avalanche.

    Calgary 4th for shot volume (64.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Colorado 8th for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  2. Don’t count on Blackwood to stand on his head again

    Blackwood has been a wall against the Flames since 2023-24, well above his usual. It looks like a pattern, but across three seasons a goalie’s record against one team told us nothing about the next meeting. Expect the usual Blackwood.

    The call If Blackwood starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .907 than to his .939 against the Flames.

    5 starts against Calgary: .939 save percentage · .907 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 5 against Calgary, 3,684 shots against everyone else

  3. The Avalanche feed on mistakes, and the Flames make them

    The Flames give up more dangerous chances after losing the puck than most, and the Avalanche pounce.

    The call The Avalanche get at least their usual 7.7% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Colorado 4th for chances off turnovers (7.7% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Calgary 30th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

  4. Expect a track meet

    Colorado plays some of the league’s fastest games, and so does Calgary. We think this one runs hotter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at more than 88.6 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, faster than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): Colorado 1st (88.6), Calgary 3rd (85.3)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Colorado and Calgary play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Colorado AvalancheCalgary FlamesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Colorado, 3 for Calgary. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Colorado: 69.6 shot attempts per 601st of 32

      Colorado: 67.5 shot attempts per 605th of 32

    • Calgary: 64.2 shot attempts per 604th of 32

      Calgary: 72.1 shot attempts per 601st of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Colorado: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

      Colorado: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

    • Calgary: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

      Calgary: a 4.9% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Colorado: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

      Colorado: 6.7% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

    • Calgary: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds27th of 32

      Calgary: 2.7% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Colorado: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

      Colorado: 13.0% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

    • Calgary: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

      Calgary: 14.4% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Colorado: 38.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

      Colorado: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

    • Calgary: 33.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen22nd of 32

      Calgary: 37.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Colorado: 27.7% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

      Colorado: 26.5% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

    • Calgary: 28.9% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

      Calgary: 31.0% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Colorado: 53.3 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Colorado: 55.0 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

    • Calgary: 60.2 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

      Calgary: 61.4 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Colorado: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

      Colorado: a 5.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

    • Calgary: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Calgary: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Colorado: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

      Colorado: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6017th of 32

    • Calgary: 0.47 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 0.80 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Colorado: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      Colorado: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

    • Calgary: +0.07 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

      Calgary: −1.78 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Colorado: 88.6 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

      Colorado: 90.2 shots per 60, both teams combined3rd of 32

    • Calgary: 85.3 shots per 60, both teams combined3rd of 32

      Calgary: 94.4 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Colorado: forecheck score 89 (100 is league average)25th of 32Colorado: 20.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

      Colorado: forecheck score 79 (100 is league average)26th of 32Colorado: 19.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Calgary: forecheck score 102 (100 is league average)16th of 32Calgary: 23.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

      Calgary: forecheck score 112 (100 is league average)10th of 32Calgary: 27.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Colorado: hit score 83 (100 is league average)29th of 32Colorado: 22.0 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

      Colorado: hit score 81 (100 is league average)24th of 32Colorado: 24.2 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

    • Calgary: hit score 103 (100 is league average)16th of 32Calgary: 27.1 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

      Calgary: hit score 108 (100 is league average)12th of 32Calgary: 32.0 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Colorado: 39.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six32nd of 32

      Colorado: 39.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

    • Calgary: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

      Calgary: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Colorado: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      Colorado: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

    • Calgary: 6.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      Calgary: 4.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play27th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Colorado: 6.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      Colorado: 4.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    • Calgary: 7.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Calgary: 5.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Colorado: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Colorado: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

    • Calgary: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Calgary: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Colorado: 0.14 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      Colorado: 0.33 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

    • Calgary: 0.18 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 1.67 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Calgary is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Colorado Avalanche

Calgary Flames

Worth knowing

  • Calgary M. Pospisil has started killing penalties: on the ice for 31% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 2% last season.

Who Calgary is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Calgary group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Colorado’s, named in each box.

Colorado’s lines tonightL1 Lehkonen · MacKinnon · NecasL2 Schwartz · Svechkov · HughesL3 Kadri · Nelson · LandeskogL4 Roy · Kelly · L'Heureux

Calgary forward lines against Colorado forward lines

  • L1Frost · Sharangovich · CoronatoCOL L127%COL L232%COL L325%COL L416%
  • L2Pospisil · Klapka · TsyplakovCOL L132%COL L238%COL L327%COL L44%
  • L3Backlund · Farabee · GridinCOL L159%COL L221%COL L319%COL L41%
  • L4Strome · Zary · HonzekCOL L14%COL L249%COL L335%COL L412%

Calgary defense pairs against Colorado forward lines

  • P1Middleton · ParekhCOL L116%COL L251%COL L324%COL L49%
  • P2Whitecloud · BahlCOL L141%COL L223%COL L329%COL L48%
  • P3Kuznetsov · NemecCOL L167%COL L233%COL L30%COL L40%

Based on 1 Calgary home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Colorado power play against Calgary penalty kill

  • Colorado power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 17th of 32

  • Calgary penalty kill

    7.6 expected goals allowed per 60 · 18th of 32

Colorado power play

PP170% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • C. MakarQuarterback
  • M. NecasDistributor
  • T. Hughes
  • N. MacKinnonTrigger
  • G. LandeskogNet-front

PP230% of the time

Creates 8.3 expected goals per 60

  • D. ToewsQuarterback
  • N. KadriDistributor
  • J. Schwartz
  • A. LehkonenNet-front
  • B. NelsonTrigger

 

Where Colorado’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Calgary penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

M. Blackwood39 starts · 1009 shots, this season and last

+5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 527 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 348 shots
High-danger save %
.694 134 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodD. WolfD. Cooley

D. Wolf54 starts · 1618 shots, this season and last

−3.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 807 shots
Medium-danger save %
.849 596 shots
High-danger save %
.721 215 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
54%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: +5.4 goals saved above expected in 39 starts
    • D. Wolf: −3.3 goals saved above expected in 54 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 25.9 shots faced per 60
    • D. Wolf: 29.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Wolf: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 67% of the time
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 54% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

M. Blackwood3 starts · 76 shots, this season

−1.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.953 43 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 28 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodD. WolfD. Cooley

D. Wolf2 starts · 59 shots, this season

−5.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.958 24 shots
Medium-danger save %
.769 26 shots
High-danger save %
.444 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: −1.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • D. Wolf: −5.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 25.4 shots faced per 60
    • D. Wolf: 29.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 5.4% chance of going in
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Wolf: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 81 seconds between shots
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 33% of the time
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 0% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
ColoradoCalgaryLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play56.4%56.7%
  • Power play14.8%18.1%
  • Rebound8.9%7.1%
  • Empty net8.1%6.2%
  • Off a turnover6.1%3.8%
  • Goalie pulled2.8%1%
  • Shorthanded1.1%4.8%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%2.4%

358 Colorado goals and 210 Calgary goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play56.2%33.3%
  • Power play25%66.7%
  • Rebound6.2%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover12.5%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

16 Colorado goals and 3 Calgary goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Colorado Avalanche · Calgary Flames