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SEA

Seattle Kraken

3-2-0

WSH

Washington Capitals

3-1-0

Has last change

Sunday, October 11

5:00 PM ET · Capital One Arena

The short version

Before the game

The matchup inside the matchup

The Capitals have won two in a row. The Kraken are 3-2-0. Washington has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Seattle can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Capitals have won two in a row. The Kraken are 3-2-0. Washington has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Seattle can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

It’s strength against strength: the Capitals for chance quality, the Kraken at preventing dangerous shots. The Capitals and the Kraken sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themJordan Kyrou has seven goals in nine games against Seattle since 2023-24, most of them with St. Louis.
  • Haunts themBobby McMann has four goals in six games against Washington since 2023-24, most of them with Toronto.
  • MissingMatt Roy has missed the Capitals’ last two games.
  • Slow startAlex Ovechkin is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. The matchup inside the matchup

    The Capitals are near the top of the league for chance quality, and the Kraken are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Our lean: the Capitals’ chance quality wins out.

    The call The Capitals’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Kraken.

    Washington 6th for chance quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Seattle 6th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

  2. The Capitals get in close; the Kraken shoot from distance

    On shots from in close, Washington is near the top of the league and Seattle is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Capitals take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Kraken.

    Shots from in close: Washington 8th, Seattle 23rd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Seattle and Washington play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Seattle KrakenWashington CapitalsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Seattle, 4 for Washington. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Seattle: 52.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

      Seattle: 53.1 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

    • Washington: 57.0 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

      Washington: 56.6 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Seattle: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

    • Washington: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

      Washington: a 7.2% chance of scoring on the average shot6th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      Seattle: 9.7% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

    • Washington: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

      Washington: 13.6% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Seattle: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

      Seattle: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

    • Washington: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Washington: 11.5% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Seattle: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      Seattle: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

    • Washington: 35.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

      Washington: 35.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Seattle: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Seattle: 33.5% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

    • Washington: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet8th of 32

      Washington: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Seattle: 64.7 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Seattle: 69.5 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

    • Washington: 57.9 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

      Washington: 57.1 shot attempts allowed per 6022nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

    • Washington: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

      Washington: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against28th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Seattle: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6028th of 32

      Seattle: 0.73 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

    • Washington: 0.52 defensive breakdowns per 6032nd of 32

      Washington: 1.02 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Seattle: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      Seattle: +0.64 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

    • Washington: +0.24 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

      Washington: +1.59 goals saved above expected per 601st of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Seattle: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

      Seattle: 87.7 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

    • Washington: 82.8 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

      Washington: 83.1 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Seattle: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 74 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

    • Washington: forecheck score 88 (100 is league average)25th of 32Washington: 20.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32

      Washington: forecheck score 80 (100 is league average)27th of 32Washington: 20.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Seattle: hit score 90 (100 is league average)24th of 32Seattle: 23.5 hits recorded per 6026th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 87 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Seattle: 25.1 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

    • Washington: hit score 100 (100 is league average)17th of 32Washington: 27.1 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

      Washington: hit score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32Washington: 31.8 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Seattle: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

      Seattle: 44.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

    • Washington: 43.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

      Washington: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Seattle: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

      Seattle: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

    • Washington: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

      Washington: 6.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Seattle: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Seattle: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Washington: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

      Washington: 9.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

    • Washington: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Washington: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Seattle: 0.07 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

      Seattle: 0.40 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

    • Washington: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

      Washington: 1.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6031st of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Washington is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Seattle Kraken

Washington Capitals

Worth knowing

  • Washington M. Roy is day to day (lower body injury) and has missed the last 2 games. He is a top-four defenseman. T. Liljegren has taken his spot beside J. Chychrun.

Who Washington is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Washington group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Seattle’s, named in each box.

Seattle’s lines tonightL1 Eberle · Stephenson · McMannL2 McCann · Beniers · SamoskevichL3 Kakko · Wright · CattonL4 Gaudreau · Winterton · Meyers

Washington forward lines against Seattle forward lines

  • L1Wilson · Tuch · DuboisSEA L139%SEA L238%SEA L314%SEA L49%
  • L2Kyrou · Protas · ProtasSEA L122%SEA L230%SEA L324%SEA L423%
  • L3Jenner · Sourdif · LeonardSEA L121%SEA L224%SEA L323%SEA L433%
  • L4Ovechkin · Strome · BeauvillierSEA L124%SEA L223%SEA L320%SEA L432%

Washington defense pairs against Seattle forward lines

  • P1Chychrun · LiljegrenSEA L127%SEA L233%SEA L320%SEA L420%
  • P2Desharnais · FehérvárySEA L131%SEA L229%SEA L316%SEA L424%
  • P3McIlrath · HutsonSEA L112%SEA L28%SEA L341%SEA L439%

Based on 2 Washington home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Seattle power play against Washington penalty kill

  • Seattle power play

    7.2 expected goals per 60 · 23rd of 32

  • Washington penalty kill

    8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 · 27th of 32

Seattle power play

PP160% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • B. MontourQuarterback
  • B. Catton
  • K. KakkoNet-front
  • M. BeniersTrigger
  • S. Wright

PP240% of the time

Creates 8.1 expected goals per 60

  • V. DunnQuarterback
  • J. McCannDistributor
  • J. EberleTrigger
  • B. McMann
  • C. Stephenson

 

Where Seattle’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Washington penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Daccord47 starts · 1388 shots, this season and last

+0.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.970 764 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 446 shots
High-danger save %
.674 178 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.44
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerL. ThompsonC. Lindgren

L. Thompson60 starts · 1672 shots, this season and last

+42.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 839 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 569 shots
High-danger save %
.739 264 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.55
Quality starts
70%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.5 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • L. Thompson: +42.1 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.2 shots faced per 60
    • L. Thompson: 27.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 0.44 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Thompson: 0.55 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 55% of the time
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 70% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord3 starts · 79 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 47 shots
Medium-danger save %
.913 23 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.13
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerL. ThompsonC. Lindgren

L. Thompson3 starts · 85 shots, this season

+4.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
.917 36 shots
High-danger save %
.857 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.33
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • L. Thompson: +4.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • L. Thompson: 28.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.5% chance of going in
    • L. Thompson: the average shot he faces has a 8.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 1.13 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Thompson: 1.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 93 seconds between shots
    • L. Thompson: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 67% of the time
    • L. Thompson: a quality start 100% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Thompson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
SeattleWashingtonLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%54.5%
  • Power play18.8%16%
  • Rebound9%11.6%
  • Empty net6.9%9.5%
  • Off a turnover5.7%4.4%
  • Goalie pulled2%1.8%
  • Shorthanded0.4%1.1%
  • Off a faceoff win0%1.1%

245 Seattle goals and 275 Washington goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play71.4%42.9%
  • Power play19%14.3%
  • Rebound4.8%7.1%
  • Empty net0%7.1%
  • Off a turnover4.8%28.6%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

21 Seattle goals and 14 Washington goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Seattle Kraken · Washington Capitals