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BOS

Boston Bruins

4-2-0

SJS

San Jose Sharks

3-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

11:00 PM ET · SAP Center at San Jose

The short version

Before the game

The Bruins shut down the dangerous stuff; the Sharks don’t

The Sharks are 3-1-0. The Bruins have won two in a row, the last a 5-1 rout of Philadelphia. Boston has had more of the chances over recent games and San Jose has home ice. For San Jose, the difference could be keeping shots to a minimum.

The Sharks are 3-1-0. The Bruins have won two in a row, the last a 5-1 rout of Philadelphia. Boston has had more of the chances over recent games and San Jose has home ice. Boston can tip it if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Bruins and the Sharks sit at opposite ends for preventing dangerous shots.

Who to watch

  • MissingMacklin Celebrini has missed the Sharks’ last two games.
  • Haunts themJJ Peterka has six goals in seven games against San Jose since 2023-24, most of them with Buffalo.
  • Owns themMason Marchment has a point in five straight games against Boston.
  • Still outMichael Eyssimont hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Bruins shut down the dangerous stuff; the Sharks don’t

    On preventing dangerous shots, Boston is around the middle of the league and San Jose is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Bruins prevent dangerous shots better than the Sharks do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: Boston 12th, San Jose 29th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

  2. Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, San Jose is around the middle of the league and Boston is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Sharks’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Bruins’.

    Shots from defensemen: San Jose 15th, Boston 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Boston and San Jose play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Boston BruinsSan Jose SharksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for Boston, 4 for San Jose. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Boston: 55.2 shot attempts per 6020th of 32

      Boston: 53.8 shot attempts per 6022nd of 32

    • San Jose: 47.4 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

      San Jose: 43.5 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Boston: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot24th of 32

      Boston: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

    • San Jose: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

      San Jose: a 5.1% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Boston: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

      Boston: 2.2% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

    • San Jose: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds12th of 32

      San Jose: 2.4% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Boston: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

      Boston: 8.5% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

    • San Jose: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

      San Jose: 11.0% of chances come right after a turnover10th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Boston: 31.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen31st of 32

      Boston: 30.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen28th of 32

    • San Jose: 35.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      San Jose: 38.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Boston: 28.7% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      Boston: 28.6% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

    • San Jose: 30.5% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

      San Jose: 24.8% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Boston: 57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6017th of 32

      Boston: 54.2 shot attempts allowed per 6015th of 32

    • San Jose: 59.9 shot attempts allowed per 6025th of 32

      San Jose: 63.2 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Boston: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      Boston: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

    • San Jose: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against29th of 32

      San Jose: a 7.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Boston: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6017th of 32

      Boston: 0.64 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

    • San Jose: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

      San Jose: 0.93 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Boston: +0.23 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

      Boston: +1.02 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

    • San Jose: +0.02 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      San Jose: +0.52 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Boston: 82.5 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

      Boston: 80.3 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

    • San Jose: 78.3 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

      San Jose: 74.2 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Boston: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)21st of 32Boston: 21.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      Boston: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Boston: 21.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

    • San Jose: forecheck score 102 (100 is league average)14th of 32San Jose: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

      San Jose: forecheck score 102 (100 is league average)14th of 32San Jose: 24.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Boston: hit score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32Boston: 29.2 hits recorded per 607th of 32

      Boston: hit score 101 (100 is league average)16th of 32Boston: 30.9 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

    • San Jose: hit score 116 (100 is league average)4th of 32San Jose: 29.1 hits recorded per 608th of 32

      San Jose: hit score 118 (100 is league average)7th of 32San Jose: 33.1 hits recorded per 609th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Boston: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

      Boston: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

    • San Jose: 42.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      San Jose: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Boston: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      Boston: 4.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

    • San Jose: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

      San Jose: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Boston: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Boston: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

    • San Jose: 8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

      San Jose: 9.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Boston: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Boston: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

    • San Jose: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      San Jose: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Boston: 0.26 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

      Boston: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

    • San Jose: 0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6016th of 32

      San Jose: 0.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

San Jose is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Boston Bruins

San Jose Sharks

Worth knowing

  • Boston C. McAvoy has been a scratch all season. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Boston M. Eyssimont has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters.

Who San Jose is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one San Jose group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Boston’s, named in each box.

Boston’s lines tonightL1 Pastrnak · Zacha · GeekieL2 Lindholm · Mittelstadt · HagensL3 Jeannot · Kastelic · PoitrasL4 Peterka · Khusnutdinov · Minten

San Jose forward lines against Boston forward lines

  • L1Marchment · Smith · ChernyshovBOS L132%BOS L232%BOS L335%BOS L42%
  • L2Wennberg · Sherwood · StenbergBOS L157%BOS L220%BOS L322%BOS L40%
  • L3Toffoli · Graf · MisaBOS L117%BOS L250%BOS L327%BOS L46%
  • L4Goodrow · Dellandrea · OstapchukBOS L139%BOS L220%BOS L315%BOS L426%

San Jose defense pairs against Boston forward lines

  • P1Nurse · KesselringBOS L132%BOS L229%BOS L333%BOS L46%
  • P2Orlov · CagnoniBOS L121%BOS L251%BOS L321%BOS L47%
  • P3Trouba · DickinsonBOS L163%BOS L26%BOS L328%BOS L43%

Based on 2 San Jose home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Boston power play against San Jose penalty kill

  • Boston power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 17th of 32

  • San Jose penalty kill

    8.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 24th of 32

Boston power play

PP156% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • M. LohreiQuarterback
  • D. Pastrnakboth unitsTrigger
  • M. GeekieDistributor
  • P. ZachaNet-front
  • E. LindholmNet-front

PP243% of the time

Creates 5.9 expected goals per 60

  • H. LindholmQuarterback
  • D. Pastrnakboth unitsTrigger
  • J. Peterka
  • J. Hagens
  • C. MittelstadtDistributor

 

Where Boston’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

San Jose penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Swayman59 starts · 1703 shots, this season and last

+33.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 868 shots
Medium-danger save %
.898 567 shots
High-danger save %
.754 268 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.31
Quality starts
73%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SwaymanM. DiPietroY. AskarovA. Nedeljkovic

Y. Askarov45 starts · 1429 shots, this season and last

−16.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.963 722 shots
Medium-danger save %
.855 511 shots
High-danger save %
.653 196 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
42%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Swayman: +33.6 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
    • Y. Askarov: −16.3 goals saved above expected in 45 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Swayman: 28.9 shots faced per 60
    • Y. Askarov: 30.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Swayman: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Y. Askarov: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 73% of the time
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 42% of the time

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman5 starts · 131 shots, this season

+5.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.972 71 shots
Medium-danger save %
.976 42 shots
High-danger save %
.667 18 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
80%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SwaymanM. DiPietroY. AskarovA. Nedeljkovic

Y. Askarov3 starts · 87 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.955 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.828 29 shots
High-danger save %
.643 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
28
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.64
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Swayman: +5.1 goals saved above expected in 5 starts
    • Y. Askarov: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Swayman: 26.3 shots faced per 60
    • Y. Askarov: 28 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 8.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Swayman: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • Y. Askarov: 0.64 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 80% of the time
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 0% of the time

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
BostonSan JoseLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.9%54.4%
  • Power play19.2%21.5%
  • Rebound6.4%8.8%
  • Empty net5.4%4.6%
  • Off a turnover6.4%5.4%
  • Goalie pulled2%2.3%
  • Shorthanded1%1.5%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%1.5%

297 Boston goals and 261 San Jose goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play52.9%58.3%
  • Power play17.6%16.7%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net5.9%0%
  • Off a turnover17.6%16.7%
  • Goalie pulled5.9%0%
  • Shorthanded0%8.3%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

17 Boston goals and 12 San Jose goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Boston Bruins · San Jose Sharks