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BOS

Boston Bruins

4-2-0

ANA

Anaheim Ducks

3-1-0

Has last change

Friday, October 16

10:00 PM ET · Honda Center

The short version

Before the game

Active D against forward-led

The Ducks are 3-1-0. The Bruins have won two in a row, the last a 5-1 rout of Philadelphia. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Boston’s way back in is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Ducks are 3-1-0. The Bruins have won two in a row, the last a 5-1 rout of Philadelphia. Anaheim has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Boston’s best way through is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Ducks and the Bruins sit at opposite ends for shots from defensemen.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themMorgan Geekie has six goals in six games against Anaheim since 2023-24.
  • Owns themLeo Carlsson has a point in five straight games against Boston, and 8 points in his last five against them.
  • Hot streakBeckett Sennecke has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakMikael Granlund has a point in every game this season.

  1. Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, Anaheim is near the top of the league and Boston is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Ducks’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Bruins’.

    Shots from defensemen: Anaheim 8th, Boston 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

  2. Forecheck against patience

    On forecheck pressure, Anaheim is near the top of the league and Boston is around the middle of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Ducks put more forecheck pressure on than the Bruins.

    Forecheck pressure: Anaheim 6th, Boston 21st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Boston and Anaheim play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Boston BruinsAnaheim DucksLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for Boston, 4 for Anaheim. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Boston: 55.2 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      Boston: 53.8 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

    • Anaheim: 57.7 shot attempts per 6012th of 32

      Anaheim: 52.9 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Boston: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

      Boston: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Boston: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

      Boston: 2.2% of chances come from rebounds32nd of 32

    • Anaheim: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

      Anaheim: 28.6% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Boston: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

      Boston: 8.5% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      Anaheim: 9.6% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Boston: 31.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen31st of 32

      Boston: 30.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen28th of 32

    • Anaheim: 35.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

      Anaheim: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Boston: 28.7% of shots come from within 20 feet30th of 32

      Boston: 28.6% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

    • Anaheim: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Anaheim: 33.9% of shots come from within 20 feet9th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Boston: 57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6017th of 32

      Boston: 54.2 shot attempts allowed per 6015th of 32

    • Anaheim: 57.2 shot attempts allowed per 6018th of 32

      Anaheim: 53.5 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Boston: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

      Boston: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against12th of 32

    • Anaheim: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against22nd of 32

      Anaheim: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Boston: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6017th of 32

      Boston: 0.64 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6018th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Boston: +0.23 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

      Boston: +1.02 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

    • Anaheim: +0.08 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

      Anaheim: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Boston: 82.5 shots per 60, both teams combined13th of 32

      Boston: 80.3 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

    • Anaheim: 84.9 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

      Anaheim: 73.5 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Boston: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)21st of 32Boston: 21.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

      Boston: forecheck score 85 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Boston: 21.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6022nd of 32

    • Anaheim: forecheck score 117 (100 is league average)6th of 32Anaheim: 26.8 forecheck plays recorded per 605th of 32

      Anaheim: forecheck score 126 (100 is league average)4th of 32Anaheim: 31.2 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Boston: hit score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32Boston: 29.2 hits recorded per 608th of 32

      Boston: hit score 101 (100 is league average)16th of 32Boston: 30.9 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

    • Anaheim: hit score 115 (100 is league average)5th of 32Anaheim: 30.2 hits recorded per 606th of 32

      Anaheim: hit score 125 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Anaheim: 36.1 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Boston: 43.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six4th of 32

      Boston: 44.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

    • Anaheim: 41.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Anaheim: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Boston: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

      Boston: 4.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

      Anaheim: 7.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Boston: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Boston: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

    • Anaheim: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

      Anaheim: 6.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Boston: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Boston: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

    • Anaheim: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Boston: 0.26 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

      Boston: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

    • Anaheim: 0.01 more penalties drawn than taken per 6016th of 32

      Anaheim: 0.74 more penalties taken than drawn per 6027th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Anaheim is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Boston Bruins

Anaheim Ducks

Worth knowing

  • Boston C. McAvoy has been a scratch all season. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Boston M. Eyssimont has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters.
  • Anaheim T. Terry has not played this season. He is one of their most valuable skaters.

Who Anaheim is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Anaheim group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Boston’s, named in each box.

Boston’s lines tonightL1 Pastrnak · Zacha · GeekieL2 Lindholm · Mittelstadt · HagensL3 Jeannot · Kastelic · PoitrasL4 Peterka · Khusnutdinov · Minten

Anaheim forward lines against Boston forward lines

  • L1Caulfield · Malott · WasheBOS L141%BOS L221%BOS L314%BOS L424%
  • L2Killorn · Greer · PoehlingBOS L12%BOS L239%BOS L337%BOS L422%
  • L3Colangelo · Carlsson · SenneckeBOS L140%BOS L232%BOS L311%BOS L418%
  • L4Granlund · Nesterenko · GauthierBOS L145%BOS L233%BOS L317%BOS L45%

Anaheim defense pairs against Boston forward lines

  • P1Mintyukov · MitchellBOS L128%BOS L237%BOS L317%BOS L418%
  • P2LaCombe · WarrenBOS L137%BOS L228%BOS L321%BOS L414%
  • P3Hinds · LuneauBOS L142%BOS L23%BOS L323%BOS L432%

Based on 2 Anaheim home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Boston power play against Anaheim penalty kill

  • Boston power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 18th of 32

  • Anaheim penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 10th of 32

Boston power play

PP156% of the time

Creates 6.7 expected goals per 60

  • M. LohreiQuarterback
  • D. Pastrnakboth unitsTrigger
  • M. GeekieDistributor
  • P. ZachaNet-front
  • E. LindholmNet-front

PP243% of the time

Creates 6.0 expected goals per 60

  • H. LindholmQuarterback
  • D. Pastrnakboth unitsTrigger
  • J. Peterka
  • J. Hagens
  • C. MittelstadtDistributor

 

Where Boston’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Anaheim penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Swayman59 starts · 1703 shots, this season and last

+33.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 868 shots
Medium-danger save %
.898 567 shots
High-danger save %
.754 268 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.31
Quality starts
73%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SwaymanM. DiPietroL. DostalV. Husso

L. Dostal58 starts · 1607 shots, this season and last

+2.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 735 shots
Medium-danger save %
.853 606 shots
High-danger save %
.733 266 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
53%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Swayman: +33.6 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
    • L. Dostal: +2.9 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Swayman: 28.9 shots faced per 60
    • L. Dostal: 27.6 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Swayman: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Dostal: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 73% of the time
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 53% of the time

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Swayman5 starts · 131 shots, this season

+5.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.972 71 shots
Medium-danger save %
.976 42 shots
High-danger save %
.667 18 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.4
Quality starts
80%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SwaymanM. DiPietroL. DostalV. Husso

L. Dostal4 starts · 94 shots, this season

+0.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 28 shots
High-danger save %
.727 22 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Swayman: +5.1 goals saved above expected in 5 starts
    • L. Dostal: +0.1 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Swayman: 26.3 shots faced per 60
    • L. Dostal: 25.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Swayman: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • L. Dostal: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Swayman: 0.4 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Dostal: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Swayman: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • L. Dostal: a typical wait of 88 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Swayman: a quality start 80% of the time
    • L. Dostal: a quality start 75% of the time

J. Swayman, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Dostal, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
BostonAnaheimLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.9%52.5%
  • Power play19.2%20.1%
  • Rebound6.4%8.5%
  • Empty net5.4%6.3%
  • Off a turnover6.4%4.1%
  • Goalie pulled2%4.1%
  • Shorthanded1%2.5%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%1.9%

297 Boston goals and 318 Anaheim goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play52.9%35.7%
  • Power play17.6%35.7%
  • Rebound0%14.3%
  • Empty net5.9%7.1%
  • Off a turnover17.6%0%
  • Goalie pulled5.9%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%7.1%

17 Boston goals and 14 Anaheim goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Boston Bruins · Anaheim Ducks