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Hits and takeaways
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SEA

Seattle Kraken

3-2-0

FLA

Florida Panthers

2-1-2

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

6:00 PM ET · Amerant Bank Arena

The short version

Before the game

Samoskevich returns to Florida

The Kraken come in at 3-2-0, the Panthers at 2-1-2. Florida has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Seattle’s way back in is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Kraken come in at 3-2-0, the Panthers at 2-1-2. Florida has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Seattle can pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Panthers’ power play has a soft target in the Kraken’s kill. The Panthers and the Kraken sit at opposite ends for shot suppression.

Who to watch

  • Old teamMackie Samoskevich faces Florida for the first time since leaving.
  • Hot streakMatthew Tkachuk has a point in four straight games.
  • Slow startSam Reinhart is still looking for his first goal of the season.
  • Old teamBrandon Montour and Josh Mahura also played for Florida before.

  1. Penalties could cost the Kraken

    The Kraken’s penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Panthers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Kraken tonight.

    The call The Panthers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.9 expected goals per 60.

    Florida 8th for power play (7.9 expected goals per 60) · Seattle 28th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

  2. The Panthers lock it down; the Kraken don’t

    The Panthers are one of the league’s best for shot suppression, at the stingy end; the Kraken are the league’s worst, at the porous end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Panthers allow fewer 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Kraken.

    Shot suppression: Florida 2nd, Seattle 32nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Seattle and Florida play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Seattle KrakenFlorida PanthersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Seattle, 5 for Florida. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Seattle: 52.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

      Seattle: 53.1 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

    • Florida: 57.0 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

      Florida: 56.4 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Seattle: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

    • Florida: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Florida: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      Seattle: 9.7% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Florida: 7.0% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Seattle: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

      Seattle: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Florida: 4.1% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Seattle: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      Seattle: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

    • Florida: 32.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

      Florida: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Seattle: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

      Seattle: 33.5% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

    • Florida: 29.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Florida: 24.6% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Seattle: 64.7 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Seattle: 69.5 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

    • Florida: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 45.1 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

    • Florida: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

      Florida: a 4.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Seattle: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

      Seattle: 0.73 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

    • Florida: 0.36 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Seattle: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      Seattle: +0.64 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

    • Florida: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Florida: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Seattle: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

      Seattle: 87.7 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

    • Florida: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Florida: 70.9 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Seattle: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 74 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

    • Florida: forecheck score 152 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 34.1 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 175 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 41.5 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Seattle: hit score 89 (100 is league average)24th of 32Seattle: 23.5 hits recorded per 6026th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 87 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Seattle: 25.1 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

    • Florida: hit score 154 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 39.0 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 177 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 48.4 hits recorded per 601st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Seattle: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

      Seattle: 44.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

    • Florida: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Florida: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Seattle: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

      Seattle: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

    • Florida: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

      Florida: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Seattle: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Seattle: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Florida: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Florida: 9.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

    • Florida: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Florida: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Seattle: 0.07 more penalties drawn than taken per 6011th of 32

      Seattle: 0.40 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

    • Florida: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

      Florida: 1.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Florida is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Seattle Kraken

Florida Panthers

Worth knowing

  • Florida A. Ekblad returned in their last game after missing 2 games.

Who Florida is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Florida group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Seattle’s, named in each box.

Seattle’s lines tonightL1 Eberle · Stephenson · McMannL2 McCann · Beniers · SamoskevichL3 Kakko · Wright · CattonL4 Gaudreau · Winterton · Meyers

Florida forward lines against Seattle forward lines

  • L1Verhaeghe · Bennett · TkachukSEA L144%SEA L246%SEA L33%SEA L47%
  • L2Luostarinen · Lundell · VilmanisSEA L156%SEA L230%SEA L34%SEA L411%
  • L3Eller · Reinhart · TkachukSEA L17%SEA L214%SEA L315%SEA L464%
  • L4Hathaway · Lafferty · ImamaSEA L130%SEA L29%SEA L350%SEA L411%

Florida defense pairs against Seattle forward lines

  • P1Jones · MikkolaSEA L136%SEA L245%SEA L312%SEA L47%
  • P2Kulikov · GudasSEA L111%SEA L222%SEA L323%SEA L444%
  • P3Ekblad · ForslingSEA L171%SEA L29%SEA L37%SEA L414%

Based on 1 Florida home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Seattle power play against Florida penalty kill

  • Seattle power play

    7.2 expected goals per 60 · 23rd of 32

  • Florida penalty kill

    6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 5th of 32

Seattle power play

PP160% of the time

Creates 6.4 expected goals per 60

  • B. MontourQuarterback
  • B. Catton
  • K. KakkoNet-front
  • M. BeniersTrigger
  • S. Wright

PP240% of the time

Creates 8.2 expected goals per 60

  • V. DunnQuarterback
  • J. McCannDistributor
  • J. EberleTrigger
  • B. McMann
  • C. Stephenson

 

Where Seattle’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Florida penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Daccord47 starts · 1388 shots, this season and last

+0.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.970 764 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 446 shots
High-danger save %
.674 178 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.44
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom46 starts · 1196 shots, this season and last

−8.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 615 shots
Medium-danger save %
.848 427 shots
High-danger save %
.649 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
43%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.5 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • J. Markstrom: −8.1 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 25.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 0.44 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 55% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 43% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord3 starts · 79 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 47 shots
Medium-danger save %
.913 23 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.13
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom4 starts · 83 shots, this season

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 37 shots
Medium-danger save %
.879 33 shots
High-danger save %
.846 13 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Markstrom: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 20.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.5% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 1.13 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 93 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 75% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
SeattleFloridaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%54.1%
  • Power play18.8%20.4%
  • Rebound9%7.8%
  • Empty net6.9%5.5%
  • Off a turnover5.7%4.3%
  • Goalie pulled2%3.9%
  • Shorthanded0.4%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win0%1.6%

245 Seattle goals and 255 Florida goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play71.4%55.6%
  • Power play19%11.1%
  • Rebound4.8%22.2%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover4.8%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%11.1%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

21 Seattle goals and 9 Florida goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Seattle Kraken · Florida Panthers