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VAN

Vancouver Canucks

2-4-0

FLA

Florida Panthers

2-1-2

Has last change

Thursday, October 15

7:00 PM ET · Amerant Bank Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Canucks can’t afford to take penalties

The Panthers are 2-1-2. The Canucks haven’t won in three. Florida has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Vancouver’s only real way in is keeping dangerous shots away, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Panthers are 2-1-2. The Canucks haven’t won in three. Florida has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Vancouver could still pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away, but they might need a miracle.

The Panthers’ power play has a soft target in the Canucks’ kill. The Panthers and the Canucks sit at opposite ends for preventing dangerous shots.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themElias Pettersson has five goals in six games against Florida since 2023-24.
  • Hot streakMatthew Tkachuk has a point in four straight games.
  • Slow startSam Reinhart is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. The Canucks can’t afford to take penalties

    The Canucks’ penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Panthers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Canucks tonight.

    The call The Panthers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.9 expected goals per 60.

    Florida 8th for power play (7.9 expected goals per 60) · Vancouver 31st for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 6 games this season

  2. The Panthers shut down the dangerous stuff; the Canucks don’t

    On preventing dangerous shots, Florida is the league’s best and Vancouver is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Panthers prevent dangerous shots better than the Canucks do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: Florida 1st, Vancouver 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vancouver and Florida play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vancouver CanucksFlorida PanthersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for Vancouver, 5 for Florida. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vancouver: 45.4 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

      Vancouver: 42.0 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

    • Florida: 57.0 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

      Florida: 56.4 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vancouver: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Vancouver: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

    • Florida: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Florida: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vancouver: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

      Vancouver: 18.9% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Florida: 7.0% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vancouver: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

      Vancouver: 16.6% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Florida: 4.1% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vancouver: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen28th of 32

      Vancouver: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

    • Florida: 32.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

      Florida: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vancouver: 29.6% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Vancouver: 28.8% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

    • Florida: 29.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Florida: 24.6% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vancouver: 62.2 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

      Vancouver: 64.0 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

    • Florida: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 45.1 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vancouver: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

      Vancouver: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against27th of 32

    • Florida: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

      Florida: a 4.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vancouver: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.84 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

    • Florida: 0.36 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vancouver: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: −1.09 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

    • Florida: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Florida: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vancouver: 80.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

      Vancouver: 75.0 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

    • Florida: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Florida: 70.9 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vancouver: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)16th of 32Vancouver: 22.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

      Vancouver: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)17th of 32Vancouver: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

    • Florida: forecheck score 152 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 34.1 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 175 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 41.5 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vancouver: hit score 99 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 26.9 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

      Vancouver: hit score 96 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 28.8 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

    • Florida: hit score 154 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 39.0 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 177 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 48.4 hits recorded per 601st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vancouver: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

      Vancouver: 44.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

    • Florida: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Florida: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vancouver: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

      Vancouver: 4.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

    • Florida: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

      Florida: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vancouver: 8.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Vancouver: 11.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    • Florida: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Florida: 9.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vancouver: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded12th of 32

      Vancouver: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • Florida: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Florida: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vancouver: 0.02 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.66 more penalties taken than drawn per 6026th of 32

    • Florida: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

      Florida: 1.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Florida is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vancouver Canucks

Florida Panthers

Worth knowing

  • Vancouver The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 6 games cover only 27% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the second-lowest in the league (a typical team: 53%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Vancouver M. Sasson has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 4% last season.
  • Vancouver P. Cotter has started killing penalties: on the ice for 27% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Vancouver A. Bains has started killing penalties: on the ice for 26% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 3% last season.
  • Florida A. Ekblad returned in their last game after missing 2 games.

Who Florida is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Florida group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vancouver’s, named in each box.

Vancouver keeps changing their forward lines, so the four named here (from their latest games) may not be the ones they send out tonight.

Vancouver’s lines tonightL1 DeBrusk · Pettersson · LekkerimäkiL2 Karlsson · Cotter · RossiL3 Boeser · O'Connor · OhgrenL4 Gallagher · Bains · Sasson

Florida forward lines against Vancouver forward lines

  • L1Verhaeghe · Bennett · TkachukVAN L144%VAN L246%VAN L33%VAN L47%
  • L2Luostarinen · Lundell · VilmanisVAN L156%VAN L230%VAN L34%VAN L411%
  • L3Eller · Reinhart · TkachukVAN L17%VAN L214%VAN L315%VAN L464%
  • L4Hathaway · Lafferty · ImamaVAN L130%VAN L29%VAN L350%VAN L411%

Florida defense pairs against Vancouver forward lines

  • P1Jones · MikkolaVAN L136%VAN L245%VAN L312%VAN L47%
  • P2Kulikov · GudasVAN L111%VAN L222%VAN L323%VAN L444%
  • P3Ekblad · ForslingVAN L171%VAN L29%VAN L37%VAN L414%

Based on 1 Florida home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vancouver power play against Florida penalty kill

  • Vancouver power play

    7.0 expected goals per 60 · 26th of 32

  • Florida penalty kill

    6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 5th of 32

Vancouver power play

PP162% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • F. HronekQuarterback
  • B. BoeserDistributor
  • M. Rossi
  • E. Pettersson
  • J. DeBruskTrigger

PP237% of the time

Creates 5.7 expected goals per 60

  • Z. BuiumQuarterback
  • L. KarlssonTrigger
  • T. WillanderPoint
  • J. Lekkerimäki
  • L. OhgrenNet-front

 

Where Vancouver’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Florida penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

K. Lankinen48 starts · 1392 shots, this season and last

−23.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 660 shots
Medium-danger save %
.858 507 shots
High-danger save %
.618 225 shots
Shots faced per 60
30
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.41
Quality starts
44%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom46 starts · 1196 shots, this season and last

−8.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 615 shots
Medium-danger save %
.848 427 shots
High-danger save %
.649 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
43%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −23.9 goals saved above expected in 48 starts
    • J. Markstrom: −8.1 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 30 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 25.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 7.6% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 44% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 43% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Lankinen3 starts · 107 shots, this season

−8.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.905 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.897 29 shots
High-danger save %
.556 36 shots
Shots faced per 60
33.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.31
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenJ. MarkstromA. Schmid

J. Markstrom4 starts · 83 shots, this season

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 37 shots
Medium-danger save %
.879 33 shots
High-danger save %
.846 13 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −8.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Markstrom: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 33.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 20.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 9.9% chance of going in
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 62 seconds between shots
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 33% of the time
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 75% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VancouverFloridaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play51.3%54.1%
  • Power play23.7%20.4%
  • Rebound8.6%7.8%
  • Empty net3.9%5.5%
  • Off a turnover3.9%4.3%
  • Goalie pulled3%3.9%
  • Shorthanded3.4%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win2.2%1.6%

232 Vancouver goals and 255 Florida goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%55.6%
  • Power play18.2%11.1%
  • Rebound18.2%22.2%
  • Empty net4.5%0%
  • Off a turnover4.5%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%11.1%
  • Shorthanded4.5%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

22 Vancouver goals and 9 Florida goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · Florida Panthers