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SJS

San Jose Sharks

3-2-0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

1-3-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

The Sharks come in at 3-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-3-0. Detroit has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. San Jose can make it interesting if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Sharks come in at 3-2-0, the Red Wings at 1-3-0. Detroit has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. San Jose’s best way through is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Red Wings’ power play has a soft target in the Sharks’ kill. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • Owns themLucas Raymond has a point in six straight games against San Jose, and 11 points in his last six against them.
  • Still outSimon Edvinsson hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Special teams lean toward the Red Wings

    The Red Wings’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Sharks’ kill is near the bottom of the league. Every trip to the box hurts the Sharks more than most.

    The call The Red Wings’ power play creates at least their usual 8.5 expected goals per 60.

    Detroit 4th for power play (8.5 expected goals per 60) · San Jose 26th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

  2. The Red Wings should pile up the shots

    The Red Wings shoot a lot, and the Sharks are near the bottom of the league at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Red Wings take at least their usual 60.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Detroit 8th for shot volume (60.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · San Jose 23rd for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

  3. Two of the league’s heaviest-hitting teams

    The Sharks and the Red Wings are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 114.

    Hit score (100 is league average): San Jose 122 (2nd), Detroit 106 (10th)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How San Jose and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

San Jose SharksDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for San Jose, 4 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • San Jose: 46.2 shot attempts per 6029th of 32

      San Jose: 42.2 shot attempts per 6030th of 32

    • Detroit: 60.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

      Detroit: 65.0 shot attempts per 607th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • San Jose: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

      San Jose: a 4.8% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      Detroit: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • San Jose: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds12th of 32

      San Jose: 2.2% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32

    • Detroit: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Detroit: 8.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • San Jose: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

      San Jose: 10.1% of chances come right after a turnover13th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Detroit: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • San Jose: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

      San Jose: 41.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen1st of 32

    • Detroit: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

      Detroit: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • San Jose: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

      San Jose: 20.9% of shots come from within 20 feet32nd of 32

    • Detroit: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

      Detroit: 37.4% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • San Jose: 58.6 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      San Jose: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

    • Detroit: 55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 47.9 shot attempts allowed per 606th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • San Jose: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against29th of 32

      San Jose: a 7.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against24th of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • San Jose: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

      San Jose: 0.73 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • San Jose: +0.02 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

      San Jose: +0.39 goals saved above expected per 6016th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

      Detroit: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • San Jose: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

      San Jose: 71.7 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

    • Detroit: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

      Detroit: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • San Jose: forecheck score 111 (100 is league average)7th of 32San Jose: 24.2 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

      San Jose: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)9th of 32San Jose: 27.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)9th of 32Detroit: 24.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 130 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Detroit: 30.6 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • San Jose: hit score 122 (100 is league average)2nd of 32San Jose: 30.3 hits recorded per 605th of 32

      San Jose: hit score 127 (100 is league average)2nd of 32San Jose: 34.8 hits recorded per 607th of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 106 (100 is league average)10th of 32Detroit: 27.8 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 32Detroit: 35.8 hits recorded per 605th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • San Jose: 41.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

      San Jose: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

    • Detroit: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

      Detroit: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • San Jose: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

      San Jose: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

    • Detroit: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • San Jose: 8.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      San Jose: 10.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • San Jose: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      San Jose: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • San Jose: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6017th of 32

      San Jose: 0.39 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

    • Detroit: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

San Jose Sharks

Detroit Red Wings

Worth knowing

  • San Jose M. Celebrini returned in their last game after missing 2 games.
  • Detroit M. Kasper is out week to week and has missed the last 3 games. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Detroit J. Compher is on injured reserve and has missed the last 2 games.
  • Detroit S. Edvinsson has not played this season. He is a top-pair defenseman. A. Johansson has taken his spot beside M. Seider.

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are San Jose’s, named in each box.

San Jose’s lines tonightL1 Wennberg · Sherwood · StenbergL2 Marchment · Smith · CelebriniL3 Toffoli · Graf · MisaL4 Goodrow · Ostapchuk · Chernyshov

Detroit forward lines against San Jose forward lines

  • L1Larkin · Arvidsson · RaymondSJS L141%SJS L222%SJS L319%SJS L418%
  • L2DeBrincat · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdSJS L129%SJS L257%SJS L310%SJS L44%
  • L3Copp · Kolesar · RasmussenSJS L136%SJS L224%SJS L316%SJS L424%
  • L4Dries · Mazur · DanielsonSJS L113%SJS L222%SJS L347%SJS L418%

Detroit defense pairs against San Jose forward lines

  • P1Seider · JohanssonSJS L142%SJS L228%SJS L319%SJS L411%
  • P2Chiarot · JohanssonSJS L135%SJS L236%SJS L321%SJS L47%
  • P3Faulk · WallinderSJS L116%SJS L237%SJS L317%SJS L430%

Based on 4 Detroit home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

San Jose power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • San Jose power play

    7.0 expected goals per 60 · 25th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

San Jose power play

PP168% of the time

Creates 7.6 expected goals per 60

  • L. CagnoniQuarterback
  • A. WennbergDistributor
  • W. Smith
  • I. ChernyshovNet-front
  • M. CelebriniTrigger

PP232% of the time

Creates 6.6 expected goals per 60

  • J. TroubaQuarterback
  • T. ToffoliTrigger
  • M. Marchment
  • M. MisaNet-front
  • K. Sherwood

 

Where San Jose’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

Y. Askarov46 starts · 1449 shots, this season and last

−16.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 729 shots
Medium-danger save %
.855 519 shots
High-danger save %
.657 201 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.6
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
41%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovA. NedeljkovicJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson59 starts · 1548 shots, this season and last

+15.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 768 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 562 shots
High-danger save %
.711 218 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
49%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: −16.5 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
    • J. Gibson: +15.1 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 30.6 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 65 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 41% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 49% of the time

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

Y. Askarov4 starts · 107 shots, this season

0.0 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.941 51 shots
Medium-danger save %
.838 37 shots
High-danger save %
.684 19 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.49
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesY. AskarovA. NedeljkovicJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson4 starts · 87 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.829 35 shots
High-danger save %
.571 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
25%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • Y. Askarov: 0.0 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • J. Gibson: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • Y. Askarov: 26.4 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 24.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • Y. Askarov: the average shot he faces has a 8.1% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • Y. Askarov: 0.49 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • Y. Askarov: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • Y. Askarov: a quality start 0% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 25% of the time

Y. Askarov, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
San JoseDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54.6%53.8%
  • Power play21.4%23.3%
  • Rebound8.8%4%
  • Empty net4.6%8.8%
  • Off a turnover5.3%4.8%
  • Goalie pulled2.3%2.4%
  • Shorthanded1.5%1.2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.5%1.6%

262 San Jose goals and 249 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play61.5%50%
  • Power play15.4%30%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%10%
  • Off a turnover15.4%10%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded7.7%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

13 San Jose goals and 10 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: San Jose Sharks · Detroit Red Wings