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PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-4-2

DET

Detroit Red Wings

1-3-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 15

7:30 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Flyers need a win

The Red Wings are 1-3-0. The Flyers haven’t won in six. Detroit has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. Philadelphia’s way back in is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Red Wings are 1-3-0. The Flyers haven’t won in six. Detroit has had more of the chances over recent games, Detroit will be without Kasper, and Detroit has home ice. Philadelphia can pull it off if they pounce on loose pucks.

The Red Wings shoot a lot, and the Flyers give up plenty. Expect plenty of hitting.

Who to watch

  • MissingTravis Konecny has missed the Flyers’ latest game.
  • MissingCam York has missed the Flyers’ latest game.
  • Owns themLucas Raymond has a point in five straight games against Philadelphia.
  • Haunts themOwen Tippett has five goals in eight games against Detroit since 2023-24.

  1. Expect the Red Wings to fire from everywhere

    Philadelphia has been giving up shots all season, and the Red Wings rarely pass one up.

    The call The Red Wings take at least their usual 60.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Detroit 8th for shot volume (60.7 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Philadelphia 31st for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 6 games this season

  2. The Red Wings can’t afford to cough it up

    Almost nobody punishes turnovers like the Flyers, and the Red Wings give the puck away in bad spots.

    The call The Flyers get at least their usual 7.7% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Philadelphia 4th for chances off turnovers (7.7% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Detroit 27th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

  3. Bodies will fly

    The Flyers and the Red Wings are both among the league’s heaviest hitters, even after adjusting for each arena’s scorer. Keep your head up.

    The call The two teams’ combined hit score reaches their usual 108.

    Hit score (100 is league average): Philadelphia 109 (9th), Detroit 107 (10th)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Philadelphia and Detroit play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Philadelphia FlyersDetroit Red WingsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for Philadelphia, 4 for Detroit. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Philadelphia: 44.7 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 41.3 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

    • Detroit: 60.7 shot attempts per 608th of 32

      Detroit: 65.0 shot attempts per 606th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

      Detroit: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Philadelphia: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 13.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

    • Detroit: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

      Detroit: 8.1% of chances come from rebounds20th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Philadelphia: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

      Philadelphia: 3.4% of chances come right after a turnover29th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

      Detroit: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Philadelphia: 32.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Philadelphia: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

    • Detroit: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

      Detroit: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen11th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Philadelphia: 30.4% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      Philadelphia: 25.2% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

    • Detroit: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

      Detroit: 37.4% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Philadelphia: 62.4 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

      Philadelphia: 73.3 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

    • Detroit: 55.7 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: 47.9 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

    • Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

      Detroit: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Philadelphia: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.68 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6027th of 32

      Detroit: 0.33 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Philadelphia: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

      Philadelphia: +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

    • Detroit: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

      Detroit: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Philadelphia: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

      Philadelphia: 81.3 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

    • Detroit: 81.9 shots per 60, both teams combined14th of 32

      Detroit: 80.2 shots per 60, both teams combined15th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Philadelphia: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)27th of 32Philadelphia: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

      Philadelphia: forecheck score 71 (100 is league average)31st of 32Philadelphia: 17.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

    • Detroit: forecheck score 109 (100 is league average)8th of 32Detroit: 24.1 forecheck plays recorded per 609th of 32

      Detroit: forecheck score 129 (100 is league average)4th of 32Detroit: 30.6 forecheck plays recorded per 606th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Philadelphia: hit score 109 (100 is league average)9th of 32Philadelphia: 28.4 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      Philadelphia: hit score 104 (100 is league average)15th of 32Philadelphia: 29.5 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

    • Detroit: hit score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Detroit: 27.8 hits recorded per 6013th of 32

      Detroit: hit score 125 (100 is league average)5th of 32Detroit: 35.8 hits recorded per 605th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Philadelphia: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Philadelphia: 43.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

    • Detroit: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Detroit: 40.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six29th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Philadelphia: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 6.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

    • Detroit: 8.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

      Detroit: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Philadelphia: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

    • Detroit: 7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

      Detroit: 8.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Philadelphia: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      Detroit: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Philadelphia: 0.19 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.83 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

    • Detroit: 0.24 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32

      Detroit: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Detroit is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Philadelphia Flyers

Detroit Red Wings

Worth knowing

  • Philadelphia The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 6 games cover only 22% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the lowest share in the league (a typical team: 51%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Philadelphia R. Ristolainen is on injured reserve (upper body injury) and has missed the last 3 games. He is a top-four defenseman. J. Drysdale has taken his spot beside T. Sanheim.
  • Philadelphia C. York is day to day (upper body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-pair defenseman. T. Sanheim has taken his spot beside J. Drysdale.
  • Philadelphia T. Konecny is day to day (lower body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-six forward.
  • Detroit M. Kasper is out week to week and has missed the last 3 games. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Detroit J. Compher is on injured reserve and has missed the last 2 games.
  • Detroit S. Edvinsson has not played this season. He is a top-pair defenseman. A. Johansson has taken his spot beside M. Seider.

Who Detroit is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Detroit group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Philadelphia’s, named in each box.

Philadelphia keeps changing their forward lines, so the four named here (from their latest games) may not be the ones they send out tonight.

Philadelphia’s lines tonightL1 Couturier · Tippett · MichkovL2 Dvorak · Zegras · FoersterL3 Wilson · Bunting · AcciariL4 Cates · Barkey · Martone

Detroit forward lines against Philadelphia forward lines

  • L1Larkin · Arvidsson · RaymondPHI L141%PHI L222%PHI L319%PHI L418%
  • L2DeBrincat · Finnie · Brandsegg-NygårdPHI L129%PHI L257%PHI L310%PHI L44%
  • L3Copp · Kolesar · RasmussenPHI L136%PHI L224%PHI L316%PHI L424%
  • L4Dries · Mazur · DanielsonPHI L113%PHI L222%PHI L347%PHI L418%

Detroit defense pairs against Philadelphia forward lines

  • P1Seider · JohanssonPHI L142%PHI L228%PHI L319%PHI L411%
  • P2Chiarot · JohanssonPHI L135%PHI L236%PHI L321%PHI L47%
  • P3Faulk · WallinderPHI L116%PHI L237%PHI L317%PHI L430%

Based on 4 Detroit home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Philadelphia power play against Detroit penalty kill

  • Philadelphia power play

    7.5 expected goals per 60 · 13th of 32

  • Detroit penalty kill

    7.9 expected goals allowed per 60 · 23rd of 32

Philadelphia power play

PP173% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • J. DrysdaleQuarterback
  • T. Zegrasboth unitsTrigger
  • M. Michkovboth unitsNet-front
  • T. Foersterboth units
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor

PP226% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • D. JiricekQuarterback
  • T. Zegrasboth unitsTrigger
  • M. Michkovboth unitsNet-front
  • T. Foersterboth units
  • T. Konecnyboth unitsDistributor

 

Where Philadelphia’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Detroit penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Vladar52 starts · 1387 shots, this season and last

+10.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.984 709 shots
Medium-danger save %
.863 489 shots
High-danger save %
.693 189 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
73%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. VladarJ. WollJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson59 starts · 1548 shots, this season and last

+15.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.974 768 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 562 shots
High-danger save %
.711 218 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.46
Quality starts
49%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Vladar: +10.4 goals saved above expected in 52 starts
    • J. Gibson: +15.1 goals saved above expected in 59 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Vladar: 26.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 27.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Vladar: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.46 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 78 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 73% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 49% of the time

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar3 starts · 104 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.955 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.826 46 shots
High-danger save %
.643 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
35.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.69
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. VladarJ. WollJ. GibsonD. Tarasov

J. Gibson4 starts · 87 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 38 shots
Medium-danger save %
.829 35 shots
High-danger save %
.571 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.29
Quality starts
25%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Vladar: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Gibson: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Vladar: 35.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Gibson: 24.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 8.6% chance of going in
    • J. Gibson: the average shot he faces has a 7.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Vladar: 0.69 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Gibson: 0.29 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots
    • J. Gibson: a typical wait of 92 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 33% of the time
    • J. Gibson: a quality start 25% of the time

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Gibson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
PhiladelphiaDetroitLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play59%53.8%
  • Power play15%23.3%
  • Rebound3.8%4%
  • Empty net8.6%8.8%
  • Off a turnover6.4%4.8%
  • Goalie pulled3.4%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.6%1.2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%1.6%

266 Philadelphia goals and 249 Detroit goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%50%
  • Power play16.7%30%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net0%10%
  • Off a turnover0%10%
  • Goalie pulled16.7%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

6 Philadelphia goals and 10 Detroit goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Philadelphia Flyers · Detroit Red Wings