Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

STL

St. Louis Blues

1-2-1

NSH

Nashville Predators

2-1-1

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

8:00 PM ET · Bridgestone Arena

The short version

Before the game

Barron returns to Nashville

The Predators are 2-1-1. The Blues haven’t won in three. St. Louis has controlled the play far better over recent games and Nashville has home ice. Nashville’s best way to tip it is a penalty kill that holds up.

The Predators are 2-1-1. The Blues haven’t won in three. St. Louis has controlled the play far better over recent games and Nashville has home ice. Not by much, though: Nashville can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

The Blues aren’t the team you remember for shot volume. Don’t read much into Hofer’s record against the Predators.

Who to watch

  • Old teamJustin Barron faces Nashville for the first time since leaving.
  • Haunts themFilip Forsberg has eleven goals in eleven games against St. Louis since 2023-24.
  • Hot streakSteven Stamkos has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakRoman Josi has a point in every game this season.

  1. Don’t judge the Blues by last season

    Over this season and last, the Blues have been around the middle of the league for shot volume. This season alone they’ve been near the top of the league, shooting more. We think tonight looks more like this season than the old Blues.

    The call The Blues’ shot volume is better than their blended level of 55.2 per 60.

    Shot volume: 18th over two seasons (55.2 per 60), 10th this season (58.1 per 60)

    Style fingerprint · blended and this season only · 4 games this season

  2. Hofer isn’t cursed against the Predators

    Hofer has been shaky against the Predators since 2023-24, well below his usual. It looks like a pattern, but across three seasons a goalie’s record against one team told us nothing about the next meeting. Expect the usual Hofer.

    The call If Hofer starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .914 than to his .878 against the Predators.

    6 starts against Nashville: .878 save percentage · .914 against everyone else

    Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 6 against Nashville, 2,687 shots against everyone else

  3. Good looks against hopeful ones

    The Blues are the league’s best for shot quality, at the dangerous end; the Predators are one of the league’s worst, at the hopeful end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Blues’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Predators’.

    Shot quality: St. Louis 1st, Nashville 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How St. Louis and Nashville play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

St. Louis BluesNashville PredatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for St. Louis, 4 for Nashville. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • St. Louis: 55.2 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

      St. Louis: 58.1 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

    • Nashville: 51.5 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: 46.5 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • St. Louis: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      St. Louis: a 7.6% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

    • Nashville: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot28th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • St. Louis: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

      St. Louis: 21.0% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

    • Nashville: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

      Nashville: 13.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • St. Louis: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      St. Louis: 4.8% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Nashville: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover20th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • St. Louis: 36.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

      St. Louis: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

    • Nashville: 32.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Nashville: 31.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • St. Louis: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

      St. Louis: 30.8% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

    • Nashville: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

      Nashville: 33.3% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • St. Louis: 54.9 shot attempts allowed per 6012th of 32

      St. Louis: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

    • Nashville: 60.4 shot attempts allowed per 6026th of 32

      Nashville: 66.0 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • St. Louis: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

      St. Louis: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

    • Nashville: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • St. Louis: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.96 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

    • Nashville: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Nashville: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • St. Louis: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

      St. Louis: −0.07 goals saved above expected per 6021st of 32

    • Nashville: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

      Nashville: +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • St. Louis: 78.4 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      St. Louis: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

    • Nashville: 84.3 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

      Nashville: 85.4 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • St. Louis: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      St. Louis: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

    • Nashville: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 32Nashville: 20.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

      Nashville: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 19.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 27.7 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

      St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 30.0 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Nashville: hit score 83 (100 is league average)29th of 32Nashville: 22.8 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: hit score 74 (100 is league average)29th of 32Nashville: 22.6 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • St. Louis: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

      St. Louis: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

    • Nashville: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

      Nashville: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • St. Louis: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

      St. Louis: 3.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Nashville: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • St. Louis: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      St. Louis: 6.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Nashville: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • St. Louis: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

    • Nashville: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Nashville: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • St. Louis: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6024th of 32

      St. Louis: 1.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

    • Nashville: 0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

      Nashville: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Nashville is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

St. Louis Blues

Nashville Predators

Worth knowing

  • St. Louis T. Tucker is out indefinitely and has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters. B. Carlo has taken his spot beside C. Fowler.
  • St. Louis L. Mailloux is out long term and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. A. Jiricek has taken his spot beside P. Broberg.
  • Nashville M. Wood has started killing penalties: on the ice for 39% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Nashville N. Hague is no longer killing penalties: 5% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 42% last season.

Who Nashville is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Nashville group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are St. Louis’s, named in each box.

St. Louis’s lines tonightL1 Thomas · Holloway · SnuggerudL2 Berggren · McMichael · McTavishL3 Buchnevich · Neighbours · DvorskyL4 Johnston · Dube · Suter

Nashville forward lines against St. Louis forward lines

  • L1Forsberg · Hoglander · WoodSTL L138%STL L215%STL L318%STL L429%
  • L2Stamkos · O'Reilly · KerfootSTL L151%STL L29%STL L337%STL L42%
  • L3Colton · Drury · EdstromSTL L150%STL L24%STL L337%STL L48%
  • L4Marchessault · Bourque · SchaeferSTL L121%STL L223%STL L336%STL L420%

Nashville defense pairs against St. Louis forward lines

  • P1Skjei · PerbixSTL L154%STL L27%STL L336%STL L43%
  • P2Josi · HagueSTL L138%STL L210%STL L339%STL L412%
  • P3Wilsby · TrudeauSTL L118%STL L237%STL L37%STL L438%

Based on 2 Nashville home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

St. Louis power play against Nashville penalty kill

  • St. Louis power play

    5.9 expected goals per 60 · 32nd of 32

  • Nashville penalty kill

    7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 19th of 32

St. Louis power play

PP153% of the time

Creates 6.0 expected goals per 60

  • C. FowlerQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • J. SnuggerudTrigger
  • R. ThomasDistributor
  • M. McTavish

PP246% of the time

Creates 6.4 expected goals per 60

  • A. JiricekQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • C. McMichael
  • J. NeighboursDistributor
  • P. BuchnevichTrigger

 

Where St. Louis’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Nashville penalty kill

Starts the kill

  • R. O'Reilly9 of 10 kills · 0:56 a kill
  • J. Drury8 of 10 kills · 1:02 a kill · takes the draw
  • M. Wood10 of 10 kills · 0:42 a kill · takes the draw
  • B. SkjeiD10 of 10 kills · 1:10 a kill
  • N. PerbixD9 of 10 kills · 1:05 a kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Hofer47 starts · 1322 shots, this season and last

+20.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.981 725 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 432 shots
High-danger save %
.691 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonJ. Saros

J. Saros60 starts · 1830 shots, this season and last

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 914 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 620 shots
High-danger save %
.686 296 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
52%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +20.3 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • J. Saros: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 28.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Saros: 29.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Saros: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 62% of the time
    • J. Saros: a quality start 52% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer3 starts · 71 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.950 20 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonJ. Saros

J. Saros4 starts · 130 shots, this season

+1.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.986 71 shots
Medium-danger save %
.860 43 shots
High-danger save %
.750 16 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Saros: +1.9 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 23.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Saros: 32.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Saros: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Saros: a quality start 75% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
St. LouisNashvilleLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play60.3%50.8%
  • Power play15.5%23.2%
  • Rebound4.6%7.1%
  • Empty net6.3%7.1%
  • Off a turnover6.3%5.1%
  • Goalie pulled2.9%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.5%2.8%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%1.6%

239 St. Louis goals and 254 Nashville goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play33.3%33.3%
  • Power play0%41.7%
  • Rebound11.1%8.3%
  • Empty net22.2%16.7%
  • Off a turnover11.1%0%
  • Goalie pulled11.1%0%
  • Shorthanded11.1%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 St. Louis goals and 12 Nashville goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: St. Louis Blues · Nashville Predators