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STL

St. Louis Blues

1-2-1

MIN

Minnesota Wild

2-1-1

Has last change

Thursday, October 15

8:00 PM ET · Grand Casino Arena

The short version

Before the game

Best against best

The Wild are 2-1-1. The Blues haven’t won in three. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Minnesota has home ice. St. Louis can make it interesting if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Wild are 2-1-1. The Blues haven’t won in three. The two have been about even at controlling the play lately and Minnesota has home ice. St. Louis can pull it off if they keep dangerous shots away.

It’s strength against strength: the Blues for chance quality, the Wild at preventing dangerous shots. The Blues aren’t the team you remember for shot volume.

Who to watch

  • Owns themKirill Kaprizov has a point in six straight games against St. Louis, and 12 points in his last eight against them.
  • MissingOlli Maatta has missed the Wild’s latest game.
  • Hot streakQuinn Hughes has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakJared Spurgeon has a point in every game this season.

  1. Best against best

    The Blues are the league’s best for chance quality, and the Wild are one of the league’s best at preventing dangerous shots. We’ll side with the Blues.

    The call The Blues’ chances are more dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot) against the Wild.

    St. Louis 1st for chance quality (a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Minnesota 4th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. Don’t judge the Blues by last season

    Over this season and last, the Blues have been around the middle of the league for shot volume. This season alone they’ve been around the middle of the league, shooting more. We think tonight looks more like this season than the old Blues.

    The call The Blues’ shot volume is better than their blended level of 55.2 per 60.

    Shot volume: 19th over two seasons (55.2 per 60), 11th this season (58.1 per 60)

    Style fingerprint · blended and this season only · 4 games this season

  3. Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, St. Louis is one of the league’s best and Minnesota is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Blues’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Wild’s.

    Shots from defensemen: St. Louis 5th, Minnesota 27th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How St. Louis and Minnesota play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

St. Louis BluesMinnesota WildLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for St. Louis, 4 for Minnesota. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • St. Louis: 55.2 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      St. Louis: 58.1 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

    • Minnesota: 56.1 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Minnesota: 54.6 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • St. Louis: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      St. Louis: a 7.6% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

    • Minnesota: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

      Minnesota: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • St. Louis: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

      St. Louis: 21.0% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

    • Minnesota: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Minnesota: 11.6% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • St. Louis: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      St. Louis: 4.8% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

      Minnesota: 4.5% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • St. Louis: 36.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      St. Louis: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

      Minnesota: 31.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • St. Louis: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

      St. Louis: 30.8% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

      Minnesota: 32.5% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • St. Louis: 54.9 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      St. Louis: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

    • Minnesota: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

      Minnesota: 55.6 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • St. Louis: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

      St. Louis: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

    • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • St. Louis: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.96 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • St. Louis: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      St. Louis: −0.07 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

    • Minnesota: +0.18 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

      Minnesota: +0.92 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • St. Louis: 78.4 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      St. Louis: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

    • Minnesota: 84.0 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

      Minnesota: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • St. Louis: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

      St. Louis: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

    • Minnesota: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)11th of 32Minnesota: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      Minnesota: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)15th of 32Minnesota: 24.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 27.7 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

      St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 30.0 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Minnesota: hit score 97 (100 is league average)19th of 32Minnesota: 25.9 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      Minnesota: hit score 88 (100 is league average)21st of 32Minnesota: 26.0 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • St. Louis: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

      St. Louis: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

    • Minnesota: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

      Minnesota: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • St. Louis: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

      St. Louis: 3.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

      Minnesota: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • St. Louis: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      St. Louis: 6.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Minnesota: 6.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • St. Louis: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • St. Louis: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      St. Louis: 1.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.22 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

      Minnesota: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Minnesota is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

St. Louis Blues

Minnesota Wild

Worth knowing

  • St. Louis T. Tucker is out indefinitely and has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters. B. Carlo has taken his spot beside C. Fowler.
  • St. Louis L. Mailloux is out long term and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. A. Jiricek has taken his spot beside P. Broberg.

Who Minnesota is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Minnesota group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are St. Louis’s, named in each box.

St. Louis’s lines tonightL1 Thomas · Holloway · SnuggerudL2 Berggren · McMichael · McTavishL3 Buchnevich · Neighbours · DvorskyL4 Johnston · Dube · Suter

Minnesota forward lines against St. Louis forward lines

  • L1Eriksson Ek · Kaprizov · BoldySTL L162%STL L21%STL L38%STL L428%
  • L2Foligno · Hartman · BrinkSTL L14%STL L21%STL L326%STL L469%
  • L3McCarron · Trenin · SturmSTL L127%STL L20%STL L39%STL L464%
  • L4Coleman · Yurov · ShabanovSTL L147%STL L20%STL L330%STL L423%

Minnesota defense pairs against St. Louis forward lines

  • P1Spurgeon · HughesSTL L129%STL L21%STL L329%STL L442%
  • P2Bogosian · BrodinSTL L151%STL L21%STL L316%STL L431%
  • P3Hunt · SpacekSTL L13%STL L20%STL L359%STL L438%

Based on 1 Minnesota home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

St. Louis power play against Minnesota penalty kill

  • St. Louis power play

    5.9 expected goals per 60 · 32nd of 32

  • Minnesota penalty kill

    7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 22nd of 32

St. Louis power play

PP153% of the time

Creates 5.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. FowlerQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • J. SnuggerudTrigger
  • R. ThomasDistributor
  • M. McTavish

PP246% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • A. JiricekQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • C. McMichael
  • J. NeighboursDistributor
  • P. BuchnevichTrigger

 

Where St. Louis’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Minnesota penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Hofer47 starts · 1322 shots, this season and last

+20.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.981 725 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 432 shots
High-danger save %
.691 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonJ. Wallstedt

J. Wallstedt37 starts · 1131 shots, this season and last

+19.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 557 shots
Medium-danger save %
.888 420 shots
High-danger save %
.753 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
76%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +20.3 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • J. Wallstedt: +19.2 goals saved above expected in 37 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 28.3 shots faced per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 30.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 62% of the time
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 76% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer3 starts · 71 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.950 20 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonJ. Wallstedt

J. Wallstedt4 starts · 110 shots, this season

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 51 shots
Medium-danger save %
.902 41 shots
High-danger save %
.889 18 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Wallstedt: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 23.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 27.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 100% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
St. LouisMinnesotaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play60.3%53.4%
  • Power play15.5%23.8%
  • Rebound4.6%4.7%
  • Empty net6.3%7.5%
  • Off a turnover6.3%4.4%
  • Goalie pulled2.9%1.9%
  • Shorthanded2.5%2.2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%2.2%

239 St. Louis goals and 320 Minnesota goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play33.3%36.4%
  • Power play0%45.5%
  • Rebound11.1%9.1%
  • Empty net22.2%9.1%
  • Off a turnover11.1%0%
  • Goalie pulled11.1%0%
  • Shorthanded11.1%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 St. Louis goals and 11 Minnesota goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: St. Louis Blues · Minnesota Wild