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CBJ

Columbus Blue Jackets

2-1-0

STL

St. Louis Blues

1-2-1

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

7:00 PM ET · Enterprise Center

The short version

Before the game

The Blues have changed

The Blues haven’t won in three. The Blue Jackets are 2-1-0. Columbus has had more of the chances over recent games, Columbus is playing for the second night in a row, and St. Louis has home ice. Not by much, though: Columbus can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

The Blues haven’t won in three. The Blue Jackets are 2-1-0. Columbus has had more of the chances over recent games, Columbus is playing for the second night in a row, and St. Louis has home ice. Columbus can tip it if their penalty kill holds up.

The Blues aren’t the team you remember for shot volume. The Blue Jackets and the Blues sit at opposite ends for power play.

Who to watch

  • Owns themSean Monahan has a point in five straight games against St. Louis, and 8 points in his last five against them.
  • Still outI. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outT. Tucker is out indefinitely and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Slow startRobert Thomas is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. The Blues have changed

    Over this season and last, the Blues have been around the middle of the league for shot volume. This season alone they’ve been around the middle of the league, shooting more. We think tonight looks more like this season than the old Blues.

    The call The Blues’ shot volume is better than their blended level of 55.2 per 60.

    Shot volume: 19th over two seasons (55.2 per 60), 11th this season (58.1 per 60)

    Style fingerprint · blended and this season only · 4 games this season

  2. The Blue Jackets’ power play outclasses the Blues’

    The Blue Jackets are around the middle of the league for the power play, at the lethal end; the Blues are the league’s worst, at the harmless end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Blue Jackets’ power play creates more per 60 than the Blues’.

    Power play: Columbus 16th, St. Louis 32nd

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 3 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Columbus and St. Louis play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Columbus Blue JacketsSt. Louis BluesLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 3 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 3 games for Columbus, 4 for St. Louis. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Columbus: 58.2 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: 54.8 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

    • St. Louis: 55.2 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      St. Louis: 58.1 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Columbus: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

      Columbus: a 7.8% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

    • St. Louis: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      St. Louis: a 7.6% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Columbus: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

      Columbus: 23.0% of chances come from rebounds3rd of 32

    • St. Louis: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

      St. Louis: 21.0% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Columbus: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

      Columbus: 1.7% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

    • St. Louis: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      St. Louis: 4.8% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Columbus: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

      Columbus: 36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

    • St. Louis: 36.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      St. Louis: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Columbus: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32

      Columbus: 32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

    • St. Louis: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

      St. Louis: 30.8% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Columbus: 57.3 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

      Columbus: 56.6 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

    • St. Louis: 54.9 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      St. Louis: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Columbus: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

      Columbus: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

    • St. Louis: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

      St. Louis: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Columbus: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Columbus: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.96 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Columbus: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6019th of 32

    • St. Louis: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      St. Louis: −0.07 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Columbus: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      Columbus: 78.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

    • St. Louis: 78.4 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      St. Louis: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Columbus: forecheck score 108 (100 is league average)9th of 32Columbus: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6013th of 32

      Columbus: forecheck score 106 (100 is league average)11th of 32Columbus: 24.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

    • St. Louis: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

      St. Louis: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Columbus: hit score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32Columbus: 25.7 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

      Columbus: hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 32Columbus: 29.1 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

    • St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 27.7 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

      St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 30.0 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Columbus: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

      Columbus: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

    • St. Louis: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

      St. Louis: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Columbus: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

      Columbus: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

    • St. Louis: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

      St. Louis: 3.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Columbus: 8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      Columbus: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

    • St. Louis: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      St. Louis: 6.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Columbus: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Columbus: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Columbus: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

      Columbus: 0.32 more penalties taken than drawn per 6021st of 32

    • St. Louis: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      St. Louis: 1.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

St. Louis is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (3 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Columbus Blue Jackets

St. Louis Blues

Worth knowing

  • Columbus Z. Werenski is out long term (shoulder injury), reported after he played in their last game. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Columbus I. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. C. Soucy has taken his spot beside D. Mateychuk.
  • Columbus D. Severson returned in their last game after missing 2 games.
  • Columbus D. Heinen has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 5% last season.
  • St. Louis T. Tucker is out indefinitely and has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters. B. Carlo has taken his spot beside C. Fowler.
  • St. Louis L. Mailloux is out long term and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. A. Jiricek has taken his spot beside P. Broberg.

Who St. Louis is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one St. Louis group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Columbus’s, named in each box.

Columbus’s lines tonightL1 Coyle · Olivier · SillingerL2 Johnson · Knies · FantilliL3 Monahan · Nichushkin · VoronkovL4 Heinen · Garland · Lomberg

St. Louis forward lines against Columbus forward lines

  • L1Thomas · Holloway · SnuggerudCBJ L140%CBJ L222%CBJ L319%CBJ L419%
  • L2Berggren · McMichael · McTavishCBJ L121%CBJ L254%CBJ L311%CBJ L415%
  • L3Buchnevich · Neighbours · DvorskyCBJ L18%CBJ L213%CBJ L353%CBJ L426%
  • L4Johnston · Dube · SuterCBJ L136%CBJ L28%CBJ L325%CBJ L430%

St. Louis defense pairs against Columbus forward lines

  • P1Fowler · CarloCBJ L141%CBJ L216%CBJ L324%CBJ L419%
  • P2Broberg · JiricekCBJ L18%CBJ L233%CBJ L333%CBJ L426%
  • P3Parayko · BarronCBJ L126%CBJ L234%CBJ L320%CBJ L420%

Based on 1 St. Louis home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Columbus power play against St. Louis penalty kill

  • Columbus power play

    7.4 expected goals per 60 · 16th of 32

  • St. Louis penalty kill

    7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 17th of 32

Columbus power play

PP180% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • Z. WerenskiQuarterback
  • M. Knies
  • A. FantilliTrigger
  • K. Johnson
  • C. CoyleDistributor

PP220% of the time

Creates 7.4 expected goals per 60

  • D. MateychukQuarterback
  • D. VoronkovTrigger
  • S. MonahanDistributor
  • V. Nichushkin
  • C. Garland

 

Where Columbus’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

St. Louis penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Greaves57 starts · 1596 shots, this season and last

+19.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.967 844 shots
Medium-danger save %
.872 517 shots
High-danger save %
.766 235 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
65%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. GreavesC. TalbotJ. HoferJ. Binnington

J. Hofer47 starts · 1322 shots, this season and last

+20.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.981 725 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 432 shots
High-danger save %
.691 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Greaves: +19.4 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
    • J. Hofer: +20.3 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Greaves: 28.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Hofer: 28.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Greaves: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Hofer: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 65% of the time
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 62% of the time

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Greaves2 starts · 57 shots, this season

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 28 shots
Medium-danger save %
.762 21 shots
High-danger save %
.875 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. GreavesC. TalbotJ. HoferJ. Binnington

J. Hofer3 starts · 71 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.950 20 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Greaves: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • J. Hofer: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Greaves: 28.5 shots faced per 60
    • J. Hofer: 23.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Greaves: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Hofer: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 0% of the time
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 67% of the time

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
ColumbusSt. LouisLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play60.4%60.3%
  • Power play15.7%15.5%
  • Rebound6.7%4.6%
  • Empty net6.7%6.3%
  • Off a turnover4.7%6.3%
  • Goalie pulled1.2%2.9%
  • Shorthanded2%2.5%
  • Off a faceoff win2.7%1.7%

255 Columbus goals and 239 St. Louis goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play55.6%33.3%
  • Power play22.2%0%
  • Rebound0%11.1%
  • Empty net11.1%22.2%
  • Off a turnover0%11.1%
  • Goalie pulled0%11.1%
  • Shorthanded0%11.1%
  • Off a faceoff win11.1%0%

9 Columbus goals and 9 St. Louis goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Columbus Blue Jackets · St. Louis Blues