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STL

St. Louis Blues

1-2-1

OTT

Ottawa Senators

3-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

7:30 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

The short version

Before the game

Best against best

The Senators are 3-1-0. The Blues haven’t won in three. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. St. Louis’s way back in is keeping shots to a minimum.

The Senators are 3-1-0. The Blues haven’t won in three. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. St. Louis’s best way through is keeping shots to a minimum.

It’s strength against strength: the Senators for chance quality, the Blues at preventing dangerous shots. The Blues aren’t the team you remember for shot volume.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themJake Neighbours has four goals in six games against Ottawa since 2023-24.
  • Still outT. Tucker is out indefinitely and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outL. Mailloux is out long term and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Slow startRobert Thomas is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. Best against best

    The Senators are near the top of the league for chance quality, and the Blues are near the top of the league at preventing dangerous shots. We think the Blues win this one.

    The call The Blues keep the Senators’ chances less dangerous than the league average (a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot).

    Ottawa 7th for chance quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · St. Louis 7th for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Blues have changed

    Over this season and last, the Blues have been around the middle of the league for shot volume. This season alone they’ve been around the middle of the league, shooting more. We think tonight looks more like this season than the old Blues.

    The call The Blues’ shot volume is better than their blended level of 55.2 per 60.

    Shot volume: 19th over two seasons (55.2 per 60), 11th this season (58.1 per 60)

    Style fingerprint · blended and this season only · 4 games this season

  3. Bring a pillow

    St. Louis plays some of the league’s slowest games, and so does Ottawa. We think this one is even quieter than either team’s usual.

    The call The game runs at fewer than 78.4 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, slower than either team’s usual.

    Pace (shots per 60 at 5-on-5, both teams): St. Louis 28th (78.4), Ottawa 26th (79.2)

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How St. Louis and Ottawa play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

St. Louis BluesOttawa SenatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for St. Louis, 4 for Ottawa. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • St. Louis: 55.2 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

      St. Louis: 58.1 shot attempts per 6011th of 32

    • Ottawa: 54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

      Ottawa: 51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • St. Louis: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

      St. Louis: a 7.6% chance of scoring on the average shot2nd of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • St. Louis: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

      St. Louis: 21.0% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • St. Louis: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover19th of 32

      St. Louis: 4.8% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

      Ottawa: 14.3% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • St. Louis: 36.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      St. Louis: 37.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen4th of 32

    • Ottawa: 33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

      Ottawa: 29.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • St. Louis: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32

      St. Louis: 30.8% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

    • Ottawa: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Ottawa: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • St. Louis: 54.9 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

      St. Louis: 52.4 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32

    • Ottawa: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Ottawa: 58.3 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • St. Louis: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

      St. Louis: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • St. Louis: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.96 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: 0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • St. Louis: +0.10 goals saved above expected per 6017th of 32

      St. Louis: −0.07 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

    • Ottawa: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Ottawa: +1.11 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • St. Louis: 78.4 shots per 60, both teams combined28th of 32

      St. Louis: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Ottawa: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • St. Louis: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6010th of 32

      St. Louis: forecheck score 104 (100 is league average)12th of 32St. Louis: 25.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 118 (100 is league average)5th of 32Ottawa: 27.9 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)9th of 32Ottawa: 29.9 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)13th of 32St. Louis: 27.7 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

      St. Louis: hit score 104 (100 is league average)14th of 32St. Louis: 30.0 hits recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Ottawa: hit score 118 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 32.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 35.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • St. Louis: 42.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

      St. Louis: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

    • Ottawa: 40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

      Ottawa: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • St. Louis: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play32nd of 32

      St. Louis: 3.8 expected goals per 60 on the power play31st of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Ottawa: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • St. Louis: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      St. Louis: 6.1 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • St. Louis: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

      St. Louis: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded14th of 32

    • Ottawa: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • St. Louis: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

      St. Louis: 1.24 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.17 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Ottawa is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

St. Louis Blues

Ottawa Senators

Worth knowing

  • St. Louis T. Tucker is out indefinitely and has not played this season. He is one of their more valuable skaters. B. Carlo has taken his spot beside C. Fowler.
  • St. Louis L. Mailloux is out long term and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. A. Jiricek has taken his spot beside P. Broberg.
  • Ottawa A. Zub has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Sanderson is out and has missed the last 3 games. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Spence has started killing penalties: on the ice for 41% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 4% last season.

Who Ottawa is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Ottawa group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are St. Louis’s, named in each box.

St. Louis’s lines tonightL1 Thomas · Holloway · SnuggerudL2 Berggren · McMichael · McTavishL3 Buchnevich · Neighbours · DvorskyL4 Johnston · Dube · Suter

Ottawa forward lines against St. Louis forward lines

  • L1Giroux · Amadio · PintoSTL L15%STL L269%STL L320%STL L47%
  • L2Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundSTL L15%STL L244%STL L345%STL L47%
  • L3Foegele · Batherson · StützleSTL L123%STL L256%STL L311%STL L49%
  • L4Cousins · Hodgson · HallidaySTL L10%STL L236%STL L364%STL L40%

Ottawa defense pairs against St. Louis forward lines

  • P1Chabot · SpenceSTL L116%STL L254%STL L319%STL L411%
  • P2Kleven · YakemchukSTL L111%STL L270%STL L312%STL L47%
  • P3Matinpalo · StanleySTL L16%STL L218%STL L374%STL L42%

Based on 1 Ottawa home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

St. Louis power play against Ottawa penalty kill

  • St. Louis power play

    5.9 expected goals per 60 · 32nd of 32

  • Ottawa penalty kill

    7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 7th of 32

St. Louis power play

PP153% of the time

Creates 5.9 expected goals per 60

  • C. FowlerQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • J. SnuggerudTrigger
  • R. ThomasDistributor
  • M. McTavish

PP246% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • A. JiricekQuarterback
  • D. Hollowayboth units
  • C. McMichael
  • J. NeighboursDistributor
  • P. BuchnevichTrigger

 

Where St. Louis’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Ottawa penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Hofer47 starts · 1322 shots, this season and last

+20.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.981 725 shots
Medium-danger save %
.875 432 shots
High-danger save %
.691 165 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark50 starts · 1266 shots, this season and last

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 643 shots
Medium-danger save %
.881 438 shots
High-danger save %
.627 185 shots
Shots faced per 60
25
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +20.3 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • L. Ullmark: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 28.3 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 62% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 62% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Hofer3 starts · 71 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.950 20 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
23.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. HoferJ. BinningtonL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark3 starts · 68 shots, this season

+4.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 31 shots
Medium-danger save %
.935 31 shots
High-danger save %
.833 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Hofer: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • L. Ullmark: +4.8 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Hofer: 23.8 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Hofer: the average shot he faces has a 6.4% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Hofer: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Hofer: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Hofer: a quality start 67% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time

J. Hofer, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
St. LouisOttawaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play60.3%53.4%
  • Power play15.5%22.6%
  • Rebound4.6%7.2%
  • Empty net6.3%6.5%
  • Off a turnover6.3%4.1%
  • Goalie pulled2.9%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.5%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.7%1.4%

239 St. Louis goals and 292 Ottawa goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play33.3%58.3%
  • Power play0%25%
  • Rebound11.1%8.3%
  • Empty net22.2%0%
  • Off a turnover11.1%0%
  • Goalie pulled11.1%0%
  • Shorthanded11.1%8.3%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

9 St. Louis goals and 12 Ottawa goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: St. Louis Blues · Ottawa Senators