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FLA

Florida Panthers

2-1-2

CBJ

Columbus Blue Jackets

2-1-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

6:15 PM ET · Nationwide Arena

The short version

Before the game

Reinhart’s favourite opponent

The Panthers come in at 2-1-2, the Blue Jackets at 2-1-0. Columbus has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Not by much, though: Florida can make it interesting if their power play gets going.

The Panthers come in at 2-1-2, the Blue Jackets at 2-1-0. Columbus has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Florida can tip it if their power play gets going.

At home, Rick Bowness likes to pick matchups, so watch who goes out against the Panthers’ second line. The Panthers’ power play has a soft target in the Blue Jackets’ kill.

Who to watch

  • Owns themSam Reinhart has a point in nine straight games against Columbus, and 18 points in his last nine against them.
  • Hot streakMatthew Tkachuk has a point in four straight games.
  • Still outI. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Coyle’s line gets the soft minutes

    At home, the Blue Jackets keep sending Coyle’s line (Coyle, Olivier and Sillinger) out against opponents’ second lines, far more often than chance would. That’s Rick Bowness chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Panthers’ second line is Luostarinen, Lundell and Vilmanis.

    The call The Blue Jackets’ L1 (Coyle, Olivier and Sillinger) spends at least 42% of its 5-on-5 time against the Panthers’ second line.

    At home: 42% of this group’s 5-on-5 time against second lines, about 24% with no line matching

    Who plays against whom · Columbus home games this season · 3 games, 34 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. Special teams lean toward the Panthers

    The Blue Jackets’ penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Panthers’ power play is near the top of the league. Discipline matters more than usual for the Blue Jackets tonight.

    The call The Panthers’ power play creates at least their usual 7.9 expected goals per 60.

    Florida 8th for power play (7.9 expected goals per 60) · Columbus 29th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Florida and Columbus play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Florida PanthersColumbus Blue JacketsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Florida, 3 for Columbus. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Florida: 57.0 shot attempts per 6016th of 32

      Florida: 56.4 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

    • Columbus: 58.2 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: 54.8 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Florida: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Florida: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

    • Columbus: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

      Columbus: a 7.8% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Florida: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Florida: 7.0% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

    • Columbus: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

      Columbus: 23.0% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Florida: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover22nd of 32

      Florida: 4.1% of chances come right after a turnover28th of 32

    • Columbus: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

      Columbus: 1.7% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Florida: 32.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

      Florida: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

    • Columbus: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      Columbus: 36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen9th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Florida: 29.4% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Florida: 24.6% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

    • Columbus: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

      Columbus: 32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Florida: 51.1 shot attempts allowed per 602nd of 32

      Florida: 45.1 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

    • Columbus: 57.3 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

      Columbus: 56.6 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Florida: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

      Florida: a 4.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against1st of 32

    • Columbus: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

      Columbus: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Florida: 0.36 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

      Florida: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Columbus: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Columbus: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Florida: +0.04 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

      Florida: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

    • Columbus: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Florida: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Florida: 70.9 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

    • Columbus: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      Columbus: 78.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Florida: forecheck score 152 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 34.1 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: forecheck score 175 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 41.5 forecheck plays recorded per 601st of 32

    • Columbus: forecheck score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Columbus: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

      Columbus: forecheck score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 32Columbus: 24.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Florida: hit score 154 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 39.0 hits recorded per 601st of 32

      Florida: hit score 177 (100 is league average)1st of 32Florida: 48.4 hits recorded per 601st of 32

    • Columbus: hit score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32Columbus: 25.7 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

      Columbus: hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 32Columbus: 29.1 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Florida: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

      Florida: 40.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six25th of 32

    • Columbus: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

      Columbus: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Florida: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play8th of 32

      Florida: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

    • Columbus: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      Columbus: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Florida: 6.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Florida: 9.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

    • Columbus: 8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      Columbus: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Florida: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

      Florida: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

    • Columbus: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Columbus: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Florida: 0.06 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

      Florida: 1.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

    • Columbus: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

      Columbus: 0.32 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Columbus is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Florida Panthers

Columbus Blue Jackets

Worth knowing

  • Florida A. Ekblad returned in their last game after missing 2 games.
  • Columbus Z. Werenski is out long term (shoulder injury), reported after he played in their last game. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Columbus I. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. C. Soucy has taken his spot beside D. Mateychuk.
  • Columbus D. Severson returned in their last game after missing 2 games.
  • Columbus D. Heinen has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 5% last season.

Who Columbus is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Columbus group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Florida’s, named in each box.

Florida’s lines tonightL1 Verhaeghe · Bennett · TkachukL2 Luostarinen · Lundell · VilmanisL3 Eller · Reinhart · TkachukL4 Hathaway · Lafferty · Imama

Columbus forward lines against Florida forward lines

  • L1Coyle · Olivier · SillingerFLA L136%FLA L242%FLA L313%FLA L49%
  • L2Johnson · Knies · FantilliFLA L134%FLA L218%FLA L328%FLA L420%
  • L3Monahan · Nichushkin · VoronkovFLA L126%FLA L216%FLA L334%FLA L425%
  • L4Heinen · Garland · LombergFLA L130%FLA L219%FLA L329%FLA L421%

Columbus defense pairs against Florida forward lines

  • P1Werenski · MateychukFLA L133%FLA L227%FLA L323%FLA L417%
  • P2Gudbranson · AndraeFLA L129%FLA L216%FLA L332%FLA L422%
  • P3Soucy · ChristiansenFLA L12%FLA L269%FLA L320%FLA L410%

Based on 3 Columbus home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Florida power play against Columbus penalty kill

  • Florida power play

    7.9 expected goals per 60 · 8th of 32

  • Columbus penalty kill

    8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 29th of 32

Florida power play

PP167% of the time

Creates 7.6 expected goals per 60

  • S. JonesQuarterback
  • M. TkachukDistributor
  • S. ReinhartTrigger
  • B. Tkachuk
  • S. Bennettboth units

PP233% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • A. EkbladQuarterback
  • S. Bennettboth unitsTrigger
  • A. LundellDistributor
  • C. Verhaeghe
  • E. LuostarinenNet-front

 

Where Florida’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Columbus penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Markstrom46 starts · 1196 shots, this season and last

−8.1 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.971 615 shots
Medium-danger save %
.848 427 shots
High-danger save %
.649 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.24
Quality starts
43%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidJ. GreavesC. Talbot

J. Greaves57 starts · 1596 shots, this season and last

+19.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.967 844 shots
Medium-danger save %
.872 517 shots
High-danger save %
.766 235 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
65%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: −8.1 goals saved above expected in 46 starts
    • J. Greaves: +19.4 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 25.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Greaves: 28.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0.24 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Greaves: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 43% of the time
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 65% of the time

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Markstrom4 starts · 83 shots, this season

+2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.973 37 shots
Medium-danger save %
.879 33 shots
High-danger save %
.846 13 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
75%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. MarkstromA. SchmidJ. GreavesC. Talbot

J. Greaves2 starts · 57 shots, this season

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 28 shots
Medium-danger save %
.762 21 shots
High-danger save %
.875 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Markstrom: +2.6 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • J. Greaves: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Markstrom: 20.2 shots faced per 60
    • J. Greaves: 28.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Markstrom: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Markstrom: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Greaves: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Markstrom: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Markstrom: a quality start 75% of the time
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 0% of the time

J. Markstrom, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
FloridaColumbusLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play54.1%60.4%
  • Power play20.4%15.7%
  • Rebound7.8%6.7%
  • Empty net5.5%6.7%
  • Off a turnover4.3%4.7%
  • Goalie pulled3.9%1.2%
  • Shorthanded2.4%2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%2.7%

255 Florida goals and 255 Columbus goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play55.6%55.6%
  • Power play11.1%22.2%
  • Rebound22.2%0%
  • Empty net0%11.1%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled11.1%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%11.1%

9 Florida goals and 9 Columbus goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Florida Panthers · Columbus Blue Jackets