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TBL

Tampa Bay Lightning

3-1-0

NYI

New York Islanders

2-2-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

7:30 PM ET · UBS Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Islanders roll four lines; the Lightning lean on their top six

The Islanders are 2-2-0. The Lightning have won three straight. Tampa Bay has controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and the Islanders have home ice. The Islanders can pull it off if they get good looks.

The Islanders are 2-2-0. The Lightning have won three straight. Tampa Bay has controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and the Islanders have home ice. The Islanders’ way back in is getting good looks.

The Islanders and the Lightning sit at opposite ends for depth.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themJake Guentzel has six goals in nine games against the Islanders since 2023-24.
  • Hot streakNikita Kucherov has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakBo Horvat has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outM. Barzal is day to day and hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Islanders roll four lines; the Lightning lean on their top six

    The Islanders are the league’s best for depth, at the deep end; the Lightning are one of the league’s worst, at the top-heavy end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Islanders spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Lightning.

    Depth: NY Islanders 1st, Tampa Bay 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Lightning will outshoot the Islanders

    On shot volume, Tampa Bay is one of the league’s best and the Islanders is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Lightning take more 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 than the Islanders.

    Shot volume: Tampa Bay 4th, NY Islanders 26th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Tampa Bay and NY Islanders play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Tampa Bay LightningNew York IslandersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Tampa Bay, 4 for NY Islanders. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Tampa Bay: 64.9 shot attempts per 604th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 70.1 shot attempts per 603rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 52.2 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

      NY Islanders: 48.8 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Tampa Bay: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot8th of 32

      Tampa Bay: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot18th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Tampa Bay: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds9th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 6.9% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

      NY Islanders: 6.7% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Tampa Bay: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover29th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 4.1% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

      NY Islanders: 12.8% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Tampa Bay: 35.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 36.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 37.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 34.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Tampa Bay: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 33.8% of shots come from within 20 feet10th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      NY Islanders: 35.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Tampa Bay: 51.5 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 50.6 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      NY Islanders: 57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Tampa Bay: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against11th of 32

      Tampa Bay: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Tampa Bay: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6019th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.67 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Tampa Bay: +0.19 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

      Tampa Bay: +0.45 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32

    • NY Islanders: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: +1.51 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Tampa Bay: 81.6 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 84.1 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

      NY Islanders: 76.9 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Tampa Bay: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)18th of 32Tampa Bay: 21.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

      Tampa Bay: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)19th of 32Tampa Bay: 22.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6019th of 32

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)23rd of 32NY Islanders: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)21st of 32NY Islanders: 22.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Tampa Bay: hit score 90 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Tampa Bay: 25.0 hits recorded per 6023rd of 32

      Tampa Bay: hit score 84 (100 is league average)25th of 32Tampa Bay: 26.0 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: hit score 102 (100 is league average)15th of 32NY Islanders: 27.0 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 32NY Islanders: 31.4 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Tampa Bay: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

      Tampa Bay: 39.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 44.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

      NY Islanders: 46.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Tampa Bay: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play19th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 6.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Tampa Bay: 7.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded8th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 6.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Tampa Bay: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 1.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 2.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Tampa Bay: 0.12 more penalties drawn than taken per 606th of 32

      Tampa Bay: 2.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Islanders is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Tampa Bay Lightning

New York Islanders

Worth knowing

  • Tampa Bay J. Carlson is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 47% last season.
  • NY Islanders M. Barzal is day to day and has not played this season. He is one of their most valuable skaters. V. Eklund has taken his spot beside B. Schenn and C. Ritchie.
  • NY Islanders K. Palmieri is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 37% last season.

Who NY Islanders is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one NY Islanders group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Tampa Bay’s, named in each box.

Tampa Bay’s lines tonightL1 Guentzel · Cirelli · HagelL2 Kucherov · Point · GoncalvesL3 Girgensons · Holmberg · MikheyevL4 –

NY Islanders forward lines against Tampa Bay forward lines

  • L1Palmieri · Horvat · HeinemanTBL L132%TBL L230%TBL L325%TBL L414%
  • L2Schenn · Ritchie · EklundTBL L129%TBL L216%TBL L327%TBL L427%
  • L3Pageau · Duclair · HolmstromTBL L121%TBL L238%TBL L333%TBL L48%
  • L4Cizikas · Palat · MaccelliTBL L131%TBL L233%TBL L324%TBL L412%

NY Islanders defense pairs against Tampa Bay forward lines

  • P1Stanley · SchaeferTBL L122%TBL L227%TBL L334%TBL L418%
  • P2Pelech · PulockTBL L127%TBL L241%TBL L318%TBL L414%
  • P3Mayfield · DeAngeloTBL L175%TBL L26%TBL L314%TBL L45%

Based on 2 NY Islanders home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Tampa Bay power play against NY Islanders penalty kill

  • Tampa Bay power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 19th of 32

  • NY Islanders penalty kill

    8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 30th of 32

Tampa Bay power play

PP175% of the time

Creates 7.0 expected goals per 60

  • J. CarlsonQuarterback
  • N. KucherovDistributor
  • J. Guentzelboth unitsTrigger
  • B. Point
  • B. Hagel

PP225% of the time

Creates 6.2 expected goals per 60

  • C. D'AstousQuarterback
  • J. Guentzelboth unitsTrigger
  • C. Geekie
  • P. Holmberg
  • G. Goncalves

 

Where Tampa Bay’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

NY Islanders penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

A. Vasilevskiy60 starts · 1545 shots, this season and last

+25.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.968 775 shots
Medium-danger save %
.886 534 shots
High-danger save %
.780 236 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.47
Quality starts
73%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesA. VasilevskiyD. HildebyI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin58 starts · 1616 shots, this season and last

+32.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 791 shots
Medium-danger save %
.880 566 shots
High-danger save %
.772 259 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
55%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • A. Vasilevskiy: +25.8 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +32.5 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • A. Vasilevskiy: 25.7 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 28.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • A. Vasilevskiy: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • A. Vasilevskiy: 0.47 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • A. Vasilevskiy: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • A. Vasilevskiy: a quality start 73% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 55% of the time

A. Vasilevskiy, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

A. Vasilevskiy3 starts · 60 shots, this season

+0.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.933 30 shots
Medium-danger save %
.900 20 shots
High-danger save %
.800 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesA. VasilevskiyD. HildebyI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin3 starts · 86 shots, this season

+5.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.974 38 shots
High-danger save %
.667 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
29
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • A. Vasilevskiy: +0.7 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +5.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • A. Vasilevskiy: 20.5 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 29 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • A. Vasilevskiy: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • A. Vasilevskiy: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • A. Vasilevskiy: a typical wait of 96 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • A. Vasilevskiy: a quality start 67% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time

A. Vasilevskiy, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
Tampa BayNY IslandersLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%55.6%
  • Power play17.9%17.4%
  • Rebound7.1%6.6%
  • Empty net8%3.3%
  • Off a turnover4.8%2.5%
  • Goalie pulled1.9%6.2%
  • Shorthanded1.6%4.6%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%3.7%

312 Tampa Bay goals and 241 NY Islanders goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play63.6%46.2%
  • Power play9.1%23.1%
  • Rebound0%0%
  • Empty net18.2%7.7%
  • Off a turnover0%7.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%15.4%
  • Off a faceoff win9.1%0%

11 Tampa Bay goals and 13 NY Islanders goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Tampa Bay Lightning · New York Islanders