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VAN

Vancouver Canucks

2-4-0

NYI

New York Islanders

2-2-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

7:45 PM ET · UBS Arena

The short version

Before the game

Active D against forward-led

The Islanders are 2-2-0. The Canucks haven’t won in three. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and the Islanders have home ice. Vancouver’s way back in is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Islanders are 2-2-0. The Canucks haven’t won in three. The Islanders have controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and the Islanders have home ice. Vancouver’s best way through is pouncing on loose pucks.

The Islanders and the Canucks sit at opposite ends for shots from defensemen.

Who to watch

  • Owns themFilip Hronek has a point in six straight games against the Islanders.
  • Hot streakBo Horvat has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outM. Barzal is day to day and hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Active D against forward-led

    The Islanders are one of the league’s best for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Canucks are one of the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Islanders’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Canucks’.

    Shots from defensemen: NY Islanders 3rd, Vancouver 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

  2. Sheltered against exposed

    The Islanders are around the middle of the league for preventing dangerous shots, at the sheltered end; the Canucks are one of the league’s worst, at the exposed end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Islanders prevent dangerous shots better than the Canucks do.

    Preventing dangerous shots: NY Islanders 21st, Vancouver 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vancouver and NY Islanders play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vancouver CanucksNew York IslandersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for Vancouver, 4 for NY Islanders. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vancouver: 45.4 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

      Vancouver: 42.0 shot attempts per 6031st of 32

    • NY Islanders: 52.2 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

      NY Islanders: 48.8 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vancouver: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot17th of 32

      Vancouver: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vancouver: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds1st of 32

      Vancouver: 18.9% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

      NY Islanders: 6.7% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vancouver: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

      Vancouver: 16.6% of chances come right after a turnover2nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

      NY Islanders: 12.8% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vancouver: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen28th of 32

      Vancouver: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 37.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 34.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vancouver: 29.6% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Vancouver: 28.8% of shots come from within 20 feet25th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet15th of 32

      NY Islanders: 35.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vancouver: 62.2 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

      Vancouver: 64.0 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      NY Islanders: 57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vancouver: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against31st of 32

      Vancouver: a 7.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against27th of 32

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vancouver: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.84 defensive breakdowns per 6029th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.67 defensive breakdowns per 6023rd of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vancouver: −0.06 goals saved above expected per 6032nd of 32

      Vancouver: −1.09 goals saved above expected per 6028th of 32

    • NY Islanders: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: +1.51 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vancouver: 80.5 shots per 60, both teams combined22nd of 32

      Vancouver: 75.0 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

      NY Islanders: 76.9 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vancouver: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)16th of 32Vancouver: 22.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

      Vancouver: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)17th of 32Vancouver: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6016th of 32

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)23rd of 32NY Islanders: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)21st of 32NY Islanders: 22.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vancouver: hit score 99 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 26.9 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

      Vancouver: hit score 96 (100 is league average)18th of 32Vancouver: 28.8 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

    • NY Islanders: hit score 101 (100 is league average)15th of 32NY Islanders: 27.0 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 32NY Islanders: 31.4 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vancouver: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

      Vancouver: 44.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 44.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

      NY Islanders: 46.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vancouver: 7.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play26th of 32

      Vancouver: 4.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play25th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vancouver: 8.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded31st of 32

      Vancouver: 11.9 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    • NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vancouver: 1.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Vancouver: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 2.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vancouver: 0.02 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

      Vancouver: 0.66 more penalties taken than drawn per 6026th of 32

    • NY Islanders: 0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6018th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

NY Islanders is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vancouver Canucks

New York Islanders

Worth knowing

  • Vancouver The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 6 games cover only 27% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the second-lowest in the league (a typical team: 53%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Vancouver M. Sasson has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 4% last season.
  • Vancouver P. Cotter has started killing penalties: on the ice for 27% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Vancouver A. Bains has started killing penalties: on the ice for 26% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 3% last season.
  • NY Islanders M. Barzal is day to day and has not played this season. He is one of their most valuable skaters. V. Eklund has taken his spot beside B. Schenn and C. Ritchie.
  • NY Islanders K. Palmieri is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 37% last season.

Who NY Islanders is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one NY Islanders group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vancouver’s, named in each box.

Vancouver keeps changing their forward lines, so the four named here (from their latest games) may not be the ones they send out tonight.

Vancouver’s lines tonightL1 DeBrusk · Pettersson · LekkerimäkiL2 Karlsson · Cotter · RossiL3 Boeser · O'Connor · OhgrenL4 Gallagher · Bains · Sasson

NY Islanders forward lines against Vancouver forward lines

  • L1Palmieri · Horvat · HeinemanVAN L132%VAN L231%VAN L315%VAN L422%
  • L2Schenn · Ritchie · EklundVAN L129%VAN L231%VAN L323%VAN L417%
  • L3Pageau · Duclair · HolmstromVAN L121%VAN L217%VAN L328%VAN L434%
  • L4Cizikas · Palat · MaccelliVAN L131%VAN L236%VAN L319%VAN L415%

NY Islanders defense pairs against Vancouver forward lines

  • P1Stanley · SchaeferVAN L122%VAN L227%VAN L326%VAN L425%
  • P2Pelech · PulockVAN L127%VAN L241%VAN L313%VAN L419%
  • P3Mayfield · DeAngeloVAN L175%VAN L22%VAN L316%VAN L47%

Based on 2 NY Islanders home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vancouver power play against NY Islanders penalty kill

  • Vancouver power play

    7.0 expected goals per 60 · 26th of 32

  • NY Islanders penalty kill

    8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 30th of 32

Vancouver power play

PP162% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • F. HronekQuarterback
  • B. BoeserDistributor
  • M. Rossi
  • E. Pettersson
  • J. DeBruskTrigger

PP237% of the time

Creates 5.7 expected goals per 60

  • Z. BuiumQuarterback
  • L. KarlssonTrigger
  • T. WillanderPoint
  • J. Lekkerimäki
  • L. OhgrenNet-front

 

Where Vancouver’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

NY Islanders penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

K. Lankinen48 starts · 1392 shots, this season and last

−23.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.962 660 shots
Medium-danger save %
.858 507 shots
High-danger save %
.618 225 shots
Shots faced per 60
30
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.41
Quality starts
44%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin58 starts · 1616 shots, this season and last

+32.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 791 shots
Medium-danger save %
.880 566 shots
High-danger save %
.772 259 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
55%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −23.9 goals saved above expected in 48 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +32.5 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 30 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 28.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 7.6% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0.41 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 44% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 55% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

K. Lankinen3 starts · 107 shots, this season

−8.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.905 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.897 29 shots
High-danger save %
.556 36 shots
Shots faced per 60
33.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.31
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesK. LankinenL. MeriläinenI. SorokinS. Varlamov

I. Sorokin3 starts · 86 shots, this season

+5.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.974 38 shots
High-danger save %
.667 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
29
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • K. Lankinen: −8.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • I. Sorokin: +5.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • K. Lankinen: 33.3 shots faced per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 29 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • K. Lankinen: the average shot he faces has a 9.9% chance of going in
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • K. Lankinen: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • I. Sorokin: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • K. Lankinen: a typical wait of 62 seconds between shots
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • K. Lankinen: a quality start 33% of the time
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time

K. Lankinen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VancouverNY IslandersLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play51.3%55.6%
  • Power play23.7%17.4%
  • Rebound8.6%6.6%
  • Empty net3.9%3.3%
  • Off a turnover3.9%2.5%
  • Goalie pulled3%6.2%
  • Shorthanded3.4%4.6%
  • Off a faceoff win2.2%3.7%

232 Vancouver goals and 241 NY Islanders goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play50%46.2%
  • Power play18.2%23.1%
  • Rebound18.2%0%
  • Empty net4.5%7.7%
  • Off a turnover4.5%7.7%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded4.5%15.4%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

22 Vancouver goals and 13 NY Islanders goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vancouver Canucks · New York Islanders