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SEA

Seattle Kraken

3-2-0

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-4-2

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

7:00 PM ET · Xfinity Mobile Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Flyers need a win

The Flyers haven’t won in six. The Kraken are 3-2-0. Philadelphia has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Not by much, though: Seattle can make it interesting if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Flyers haven’t won in six. The Kraken are 3-2-0. Philadelphia has had more of the chances over recent games and has home ice. Seattle’s best way to tip it is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Flyers pounce on loose pucks, and the Kraken cough them up. The Flyers and the Kraken sit at opposite ends for penalty kill.

Who to watch

  • MissingTravis Konecny has missed the Flyers’ latest game.
  • MissingCam York has missed the Flyers’ latest game.

  1. The Flyers feed on mistakes, and the Kraken make them

    Almost nobody punishes turnovers like the Flyers, and the Kraken give the puck away in bad spots.

    The call The Flyers get at least their usual 7.7% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Philadelphia 4th for chances off turnovers (7.7% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · Seattle 28th for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 5 games this season

  2. Airtight against leaky on the kill

    The Flyers are around the middle of the league for the penalty kill, at the airtight end; the Kraken are one of the league’s worst, at the leaky end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Flyers’ penalty kill allows less per 60 than the Kraken’s.

    Penalty kill: Philadelphia 13th, Seattle 28th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 6 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Seattle and Philadelphia play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Seattle KrakenPhiladelphia FlyersLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 6 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Seattle, 6 for Philadelphia. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Seattle: 52.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

      Seattle: 53.1 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

    • Philadelphia: 44.7 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 41.3 shot attempts per 6032nd of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Seattle: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot12th of 32

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot19th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot27th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Seattle: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

      Seattle: 9.7% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 10.1% of chances come from rebounds22nd of 32

      Philadelphia: 13.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Seattle: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

      Seattle: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover17th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

      Philadelphia: 3.4% of chances come right after a turnover29th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Seattle: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen19th of 32

      Seattle: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

    • Philadelphia: 32.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

      Philadelphia: 31.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen24th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Seattle: 29.7% of shots come from within 20 feet23rd of 32

      Seattle: 33.5% of shots come from within 20 feet12th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 30.4% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

      Philadelphia: 25.2% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Seattle: 64.7 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

      Seattle: 69.5 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

    • Philadelphia: 62.4 shot attempts allowed per 6031st of 32

      Philadelphia: 73.3 shot attempts allowed per 6032nd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Seattle: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against6th of 32

      Seattle: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

    • Philadelphia: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

      Philadelphia: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Seattle: 0.44 defensive breakdowns per 6028th of 32

      Seattle: 0.73 defensive breakdowns per 6026th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6013th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.68 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Seattle: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6011th of 32

      Seattle: +0.64 goals saved above expected per 609th of 32

    • Philadelphia: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

      Philadelphia: +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6012th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Seattle: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined9th of 32

      Seattle: 87.7 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 77.5 shots per 60, both teams combined30th of 32

      Philadelphia: 81.3 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Seattle: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

      Seattle: forecheck score 74 (100 is league average)30th of 32Seattle: 18.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6030th of 32

    • Philadelphia: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)27th of 32Philadelphia: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

      Philadelphia: forecheck score 71 (100 is league average)31st of 32Philadelphia: 17.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6031st of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Seattle: hit score 90 (100 is league average)24th of 32Seattle: 23.5 hits recorded per 6026th of 32

      Seattle: hit score 87 (100 is league average)23rd of 32Seattle: 25.1 hits recorded per 6024th of 32

    • Philadelphia: hit score 109 (100 is league average)9th of 32Philadelphia: 28.4 hits recorded per 609th of 32

      Philadelphia: hit score 104 (100 is league average)15th of 32Philadelphia: 29.5 hits recorded per 6015th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Seattle: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six8th of 32

      Seattle: 44.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six7th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 43.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six9th of 32

      Philadelphia: 43.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six10th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Seattle: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play23rd of 32

      Seattle: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play16th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 6.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Seattle: 8.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Seattle: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

      Philadelphia: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Seattle: 0.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

      Seattle: 0.3 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded23rd of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Seattle: 0.07 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

      Seattle: 0.40 more penalties drawn than taken per 609th of 32

    • Philadelphia: 0.19 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

      Philadelphia: 0.83 more penalties taken than drawn per 6028th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Philadelphia is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 6 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Seattle Kraken

Philadelphia Flyers

Worth knowing

  • Philadelphia The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 6 games cover only 22% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the lowest share in the league (a typical team: 51%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Philadelphia R. Ristolainen is on injured reserve (upper body injury) and has missed the last 3 games. He is a top-four defenseman. J. Drysdale has taken his spot beside T. Sanheim.
  • Philadelphia C. York is day to day (upper body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-pair defenseman. T. Sanheim has taken his spot beside J. Drysdale.
  • Philadelphia T. Konecny is day to day (lower body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-six forward.

Who Philadelphia is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Philadelphia group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Seattle’s, named in each box.

Seattle’s lines tonightL1 Eberle · Stephenson · McMannL2 McCann · Beniers · SamoskevichL3 Kakko · Wright · CattonL4 Gaudreau · Winterton · Meyers

Philadelphia forward lines against Seattle forward lines

  • L1Couturier · Tippett · MichkovSEA L131%SEA L223%SEA L343%SEA L43%
  • L2Dvorak · Zegras · FoersterSEA L131%SEA L237%SEA L315%SEA L417%
  • L3Wilson · Bunting · AcciariSEA L1–SEA L2–SEA L3–SEA L4–
  • L4Cates · Barkey · MartoneSEA L141%SEA L20%SEA L316%SEA L443%

Philadelphia defense pairs against Seattle forward lines

  • P1Sanheim · DrysdaleSEA L127%SEA L229%SEA L324%SEA L420%
  • P2Seeler · JiricekSEA L130%SEA L219%SEA L324%SEA L427%
  • P3Benoit · GransSEA L120%SEA L20%SEA L340%SEA L440%

Based on 2 Philadelphia home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Seattle power play against Philadelphia penalty kill

  • Seattle power play

    7.2 expected goals per 60 · 23rd of 32

  • Philadelphia penalty kill

    7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 13th of 32

Seattle power play

PP160% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • B. MontourQuarterback
  • B. Catton
  • K. KakkoNet-front
  • M. BeniersTrigger
  • S. Wright

PP240% of the time

Creates 8.1 expected goals per 60

  • V. DunnQuarterback
  • J. McCannDistributor
  • J. EberleTrigger
  • B. McMann
  • C. Stephenson

 

Where Seattle’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Philadelphia penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Daccord47 starts · 1388 shots, this season and last

+0.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.970 764 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 446 shots
High-danger save %
.674 178 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.44
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerD. VladarJ. Woll

D. Vladar52 starts · 1387 shots, this season and last

+10.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.984 709 shots
Medium-danger save %
.863 489 shots
High-danger save %
.693 189 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
73%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.5 goals saved above expected in 47 starts
    • D. Vladar: +10.4 goals saved above expected in 52 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.2 shots faced per 60
    • D. Vladar: 26.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 0.44 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Vladar: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 78 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 55% of the time
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 73% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Daccord3 starts · 79 shots, this season

+0.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.979 47 shots
Medium-danger save %
.913 23 shots
High-danger save %
.556 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1.13
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. DaccordP. GrubauerD. VladarJ. Woll

D. Vladar3 starts · 104 shots, this season

−2.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.955 44 shots
Medium-danger save %
.826 46 shots
High-danger save %
.643 14 shots
Shots faced per 60
35.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.69
Quality starts
33%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Daccord: +0.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • D. Vladar: −2.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Daccord: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • D. Vladar: 35.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Daccord: the average shot he faces has a 5.5% chance of going in
    • D. Vladar: the average shot he faces has a 8.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Daccord: 1.13 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • D. Vladar: 0.69 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Daccord: a typical wait of 93 seconds between shots
    • D. Vladar: a typical wait of 60 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Daccord: a quality start 67% of the time
    • D. Vladar: a quality start 33% of the time

J. Daccord, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Vladar, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
SeattlePhiladelphiaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.1%59%
  • Power play18.8%15%
  • Rebound9%3.8%
  • Empty net6.9%8.6%
  • Off a turnover5.7%6.4%
  • Goalie pulled2%3.4%
  • Shorthanded0.4%2.6%
  • Off a faceoff win0%1.1%

245 Seattle goals and 266 Philadelphia goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play71.4%66.7%
  • Power play19%16.7%
  • Rebound4.8%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover4.8%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%16.7%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

21 Seattle goals and 6 Philadelphia goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Seattle Kraken · Philadelphia Flyers