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MIN

Minnesota Wild

2-1-1

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

3-1-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

8:15 PM ET · Canada Life Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Jets want Scheifele away from the big guns

The Wild come in at 2-1-1, the Jets at 3-1-1. Minnesota has had more of the chances over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg can pull it off if their penalty kill holds up.

The Wild come in at 2-1-1, the Jets at 3-1-1. Minnesota has had more of the chances over recent games and Winnipeg has home ice. Winnipeg can make it interesting if their penalty kill holds up.

At home, Scott Arniel likes to pick matchups, so watch who goes out against the Wild’s third line. The Wild and the Jets sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themKirill Kaprizov has six goals in ten games against Winnipeg since 2023-24.
  • MissingOlli Maatta has missed the Wild’s latest game.
  • MissingJosh Morrissey has missed the Jets’ latest game.
  • Hot streakQuinn Hughes has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Jets want Scheifele away from the big guns

    At home, the Jets keep sending Scheifele’s line (Scheifele, Connor and Perfetti) out against opponents’ third lines, far more often than chance would. That’s Scott Arniel chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Wild’s third line is McCarron, Trenin and Sturm.

    The call The Jets’ L1 (Scheifele, Connor and Perfetti) spends at least 38% of its 5-on-5 time against the Wild’s third line.

    At home: 38% of this group’s 5-on-5 time against third lines, about 26% with no line matching

    Who plays against whom · Winnipeg home games this season · 3 games, 43 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. In close against from distance

    The Wild are one of the league’s best for shots from in close, at the close-range end; the Jets are near the bottom of the league, at the long-range end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Wild take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Jets.

    Shots from in close: Minnesota 5th, Winnipeg 26th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Minnesota and Winnipeg play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Minnesota WildWinnipeg JetsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Minnesota, 5 for Winnipeg. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Minnesota: 56.1 shot attempts per 6017th of 32

      Minnesota: 54.6 shot attempts per 6019th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 53.8 shot attempts per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 53.9 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Minnesota: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32

      Minnesota: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot26th of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 5.8% chance of scoring on the average shot30th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 5.4% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Minnesota: 10.7% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Minnesota: 11.6% of chances come from rebounds14th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds19th of 32

      Winnipeg: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds15th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Minnesota: 7.4% of chances come right after a turnover15th of 32

      Minnesota: 4.5% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 11.5% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

      Minnesota: 31.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 35.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32

      Winnipeg: 33.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen18th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Minnesota: 31.9% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

      Minnesota: 32.5% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet26th of 32

      Winnipeg: 24.7% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Minnesota: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6024th of 32

      Minnesota: 55.6 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 58.8 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

      Winnipeg: 63.4 shot attempts allowed per 6028th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against7th of 32

    • Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

      Winnipeg: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against19th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Minnesota: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 604th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6012th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 602nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.25 defensive breakdowns per 609th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Minnesota: +0.18 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32

      Minnesota: +0.92 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

    • Winnipeg: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 608th of 32

      Winnipeg: +0.41 goals saved above expected per 6015th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Minnesota: 84.0 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

      Minnesota: 79.6 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 82.9 shots per 60, both teams combined11th of 32

      Winnipeg: 90.1 shots per 60, both teams combined4th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Minnesota: forecheck score 105 (100 is league average)11th of 32Minnesota: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6011th of 32

      Minnesota: forecheck score 99 (100 is league average)15th of 32Minnesota: 24.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

    • Winnipeg: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)31st of 32Winnipeg: 18.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

      Winnipeg: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)29th of 32Winnipeg: 18.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6029th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Minnesota: hit score 97 (100 is league average)19th of 32Minnesota: 25.9 hits recorded per 6019th of 32

      Minnesota: hit score 88 (100 is league average)21st of 32Minnesota: 26.0 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Winnipeg: hit score 89 (100 is league average)25th of 32Winnipeg: 24.0 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

      Winnipeg: hit score 77 (100 is league average)26th of 32Winnipeg: 22.6 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Minnesota: 42.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

      Minnesota: 43.6% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six12th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 40.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six26th of 32

      Winnipeg: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six23rd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Minnesota: 7.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play20th of 32

      Minnesota: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play13th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32

      Winnipeg: 7.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Minnesota: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Minnesota: 6.2 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded10th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded11th of 32

      Winnipeg: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Minnesota: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Minnesota: 0.22 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

      Minnesota: 0.00 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

    • Winnipeg: 0.12 more penalties drawn than taken per 607th of 32

      Winnipeg: 0.40 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Winnipeg is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Minnesota Wild

Winnipeg Jets

Worth knowing

  • Winnipeg J. Morrissey is day to day (upper body injury) and missed their last game. He is a top-four defenseman. D. Samberg has taken his spot beside D. DeMelo.

Who Winnipeg is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Winnipeg group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Minnesota’s, named in each box.

Minnesota’s lines tonightL1 Eriksson Ek · Kaprizov · BoldyL2 Foligno · Hartman · BrinkL3 McCarron · Trenin · SturmL4 Coleman · Yurov · Shabanov

Winnipeg forward lines against Minnesota forward lines

  • L1Scheifele · Connor · PerfettiMIN L128%MIN L212%MIN L338%MIN L423%
  • L2Vilardi · Barron · BjörckMIN L136%MIN L225%MIN L310%MIN L429%
  • L3Lowry · Iafallo · RosenMIN L10%MIN L253%MIN L336%MIN L410%
  • L4Namestnikov · Koepke · LambertMIN L132%MIN L29%MIN L313%MIN L447%

Winnipeg defense pairs against Minnesota forward lines

  • P1DeMelo · SambergMIN L125%MIN L223%MIN L329%MIN L424%
  • P2Ferraro · PionkMIN L128%MIN L215%MIN L330%MIN L427%
  • P3Fleury · BauerMIN L118%MIN L267%MIN L35%MIN L410%

Based on 3 Winnipeg home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Minnesota power play against Winnipeg penalty kill

  • Minnesota power play

    7.3 expected goals per 60 · 20th of 32

  • Winnipeg penalty kill

    7.3 expected goals allowed per 60 · 11th of 32

Minnesota power play

PP181% of the time

Creates 6.9 expected goals per 60

  • Q. HughesQuarterback
  • M. BoldyDistributor
  • K. KaprizovTrigger
  • J. Eriksson EkNet-front
  • M. Shabanov

PP219% of the time

Creates 7.7 expected goals per 60

  • J. SpurgeonQuarterback
  • B. Brink
  • B. Coleman
  • R. HartmanTrigger
  • D. Yurov

 

Where Minnesota’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Winnipeg penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Wallstedt37 starts · 1131 shots, this season and last

+19.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 557 shots
Medium-danger save %
.888 420 shots
High-danger save %
.753 154 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
76%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WallstedtS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner51 starts · 1367 shots, this season and last

+13.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 640 shots
Medium-danger save %
.885 503 shots
High-danger save %
.661 224 shots
Shots faced per 60
26.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.35
Quality starts
53%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Wallstedt: +19.2 goals saved above expected in 37 starts
    • S. Skinner: +13.4 goals saved above expected in 51 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Wallstedt: 30.3 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 26.4 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0.35 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 74 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 76% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 53% of the time

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt4 starts · 110 shots, this season

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 51 shots
Medium-danger save %
.902 41 shots
High-danger save %
.889 18 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. WallstedtS. SkinnerC. Stevenson

S. Skinner3 starts · 100 shots, this season

+2.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 56 shots
Medium-danger save %
.912 34 shots
High-danger save %
.600 10 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Wallstedt: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • S. Skinner: +2.2 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Wallstedt: 27.2 shots faced per 60
    • S. Skinner: 32.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • S. Skinner: the average shot he faces has a 6.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • S. Skinner: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 82 seconds between shots
    • S. Skinner: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 100% of the time
    • S. Skinner: a quality start 67% of the time

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

S. Skinner, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
MinnesotaWinnipegLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play53.4%56.8%
  • Power play23.8%19.1%
  • Rebound4.7%8.7%
  • Empty net7.5%5.4%
  • Off a turnover4.4%3.3%
  • Goalie pulled1.9%2.1%
  • Shorthanded2.2%2.1%
  • Off a faceoff win2.2%2.5%

320 Minnesota goals and 241 Winnipeg goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play36.4%53.8%
  • Power play45.5%30.8%
  • Rebound9.1%15.4%
  • Empty net9.1%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

11 Minnesota goals and 13 Winnipeg goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Minnesota Wild · Winnipeg Jets