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VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

4-1-0

MIN

Minnesota Wild

3-1-1

Has last change

Monday, October 12

8:00 PM ET · Grand Casino Arena

The short version

Before the game

Penalties could cost the Wild

The Wild are 3-1-1. The Golden Knights have won three straight. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Minnesota has home ice. Minnesota’s best way through is keeping dangerous shots away.

The Wild are 3-1-1. The Golden Knights have won three straight. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Minnesota has home ice. Minnesota can make it interesting if they keep dangerous shots away.

The Golden Knights’ power play has a soft target in the Wild’s kill. The Golden Knights and the Wild sit at opposite ends for shots from defensemen.

Who to watch

  • Owns themMark Stone has a point in five straight games against Minnesota.
  • Hot streakJack Eichel has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakQuinn Hughes has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outBrock Faber hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Penalties could cost the Wild

    The Golden Knights’ power play is one of the league’s best, and the Wild’s kill is around the middle of the league. The Wild need to stay out of the box.

    The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates at least their usual 9.0 expected goals per 60.

    Vegas 2nd for power play (9.0 expected goals per 60) · Minnesota 22nd for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

  2. The Golden Knights’ defense joins the attack; the Wild’s stays home

    The Golden Knights are near the top of the league for shots from defensemen, at the active D end; the Wild are one of the league’s worst, at the forward-led end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Golden Knights’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Wild’s.

    Shots from defensemen: Vegas 7th, Minnesota 30th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vegas and Minnesota play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vegas Golden KnightsMinnesota WildLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Vegas, 5 for Minnesota. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vegas: 61.2 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Vegas: 63.9 shot attempts per 608th of 32

    • Minnesota: 57.1 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

      Minnesota: 56.7 shot attempts per 6014th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vegas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot9th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

    • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

      Minnesota: a 5.5% chance of scoring on the average shot28th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vegas: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Vegas: 16.6% of chances come from rebounds5th of 32

    • Minnesota: 10.6% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

      Minnesota: 9.1% of chances come from rebounds18th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      Vegas: 4.6% of chances come right after a turnover26th of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.5% of chances come right after a turnover14th of 32

      Minnesota: 5.4% of chances come right after a turnover23rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vegas: 36.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

      Vegas: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

    • Minnesota: 31.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen30th of 32

      Minnesota: 31.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen27th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vegas: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      Vegas: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

    • Minnesota: 31.8% of shots come from within 20 feet5th of 32

      Minnesota: 31.9% of shots come from within 20 feet18th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vegas: 51.5 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

      Vegas: 47.6 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

    • Minnesota: 58.1 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      Minnesota: 54.2 shot attempts allowed per 6016th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against14th of 32

    • Minnesota: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against4th of 32

      Minnesota: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against8th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vegas: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 608th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

      Minnesota: 0.26 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vegas: +0.03 goals saved above expected per 6030th of 32

      Vegas: −0.35 goals saved above expected per 6023rd of 32

    • Minnesota: +0.20 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

      Minnesota: +1.13 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

      Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined18th of 32

    • Minnesota: 84.5 shots per 60, both teams combined5th of 32

      Minnesota: 82.6 shots per 60, both teams combined12th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vegas: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)28th of 32Vegas: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 82 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

    • Minnesota: forecheck score 103 (100 is league average)13th of 32Minnesota: 23.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

      Minnesota: forecheck score 97 (100 is league average)15th of 32Minnesota: 23.8 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vegas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 25.4 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

      Vegas: hit score 91 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 26.3 hits recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Minnesota: hit score 98 (100 is league average)19th of 32Minnesota: 26.2 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

      Minnesota: hit score 90 (100 is league average)21st of 32Minnesota: 26.6 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vegas: 42.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six14th of 32

      Vegas: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

    • Minnesota: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

      Minnesota: 42.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six17th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vegas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

      Vegas: 10.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

      Minnesota: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play10th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vegas: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 4.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • Minnesota: 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded22nd of 32

      Minnesota: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded13th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Vegas: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      Minnesota: 0.4 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vegas: 0.30 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 1.18 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

    • Minnesota: 0.19 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

      Minnesota: 0.39 more penalties taken than drawn per 6023rd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Minnesota is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vegas Golden Knights

Minnesota Wild

Worth knowing

  • Vegas R. Andersson is no longer killing penalties: 1% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, down from 48% last season.
  • Minnesota The forward lines keep changing. Even their four most-used trios over the last 5 games cover only 33% of their forwards’ 5-on-5 time, the third-lowest in the league (a typical team: 53%). The lines listed lean on their latest games, but expect new combinations tonight.
  • Minnesota B. Faber has not played this season. He is a top-pair defenseman. J. Spurgeon has taken his spot beside Q. Hughes.

Who Minnesota is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Minnesota group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vegas’s, named in each box.

Vegas’s lines tonightL1 Stone · Barbashev · EichelL2 Karlsson · Marner · HowdenL3 Dowd · Gatcomb · BowmanL4 Hertl · Lavoie · Connelly

Minnesota forward lines against Vegas forward lines

  • L1Eriksson Ek · Kaprizov · BoldyVGK L162%VGK L21%VGK L38%VGK L428%
  • L2Coleman · Hartman · ShabanovVGK L131%VGK L20%VGK L362%VGK L47%
  • L3McCarron · Trenin · SturmVGK L127%VGK L20%VGK L39%VGK L464%
  • L4Brink · Lorenz · YurovVGK L1100%VGK L20%VGK L30%VGK L40%

Minnesota defense pairs against Vegas forward lines

  • P1Spurgeon · HughesVGK L129%VGK L21%VGK L329%VGK L442%
  • P2Brodin · MaattaVGK L164%VGK L22%VGK L38%VGK L426%
  • P3Hunt · SpacekVGK L127%VGK L20%VGK L334%VGK L438%

Based on 1 Minnesota home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vegas power play against Minnesota penalty kill

  • Vegas power play

    9.0 expected goals per 60 · 2nd of 32

  • Minnesota penalty kill

    7.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 22nd of 32

Vegas power play

PP172% of the time

Creates 9.4 expected goals per 60

  • S. TheodoreQuarterback
  • J. Eichel
  • T. HertlTrigger
  • M. Marner
  • M. StoneDistributor

PP228% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • R. AnderssonQuarterback
  • T. Connelly
  • B. BowmanTrigger
  • W. Karlsson
  • V. Olofsson

 

Where Vegas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Minnesota penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

C. Hart19 starts · 495 shots, this season and last

−2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 256 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 185 shots
High-danger save %
.630 54 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.2
Quality starts
63%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. Wallstedt

J. Wallstedt38 starts · 1161 shots, this season and last

+21.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.982 569 shots
Medium-danger save %
.889 434 shots
High-danger save %
.759 158 shots
Shots faced per 60
30.3
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.31
Quality starts
76%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −2.6 goals saved above expected in 19 starts
    • J. Wallstedt: +21.2 goals saved above expected in 38 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 30.3 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0.2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.31 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 68 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 63% of the time
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 76% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart3 starts · 73 shots, this season

−0.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 39 shots
Medium-danger save %
.741 27 shots
High-danger save %
.857 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. Wallstedt

J. Wallstedt5 starts · 140 shots, this season

+5.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.968 63 shots
Medium-danger save %
.909 55 shots
High-danger save %
.909 22 shots
Shots faced per 60
27.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.2
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −0.9 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Wallstedt: +5.7 goals saved above expected in 5 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 27.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
    • J. Wallstedt: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Wallstedt: 0.2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • J. Wallstedt: a typical wait of 79 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Wallstedt: a quality start 100% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Wallstedt, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VegasMinnesotaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.1%53.4%
  • Power play21.4%23.8%
  • Rebound9.7%4.6%
  • Empty net4.7%7.7%
  • Off a turnover4.2%4.3%
  • Goalie pulled3.6%1.9%
  • Shorthanded3.1%2.2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%2.2%

359 Vegas goals and 324 Minnesota goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play47.4%40%
  • Power play26.3%40%
  • Rebound10.5%6.7%
  • Empty net5.3%13.3%
  • Off a turnover5.3%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded5.3%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

19 Vegas goals and 15 Minnesota goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vegas Golden Knights · Minnesota Wild