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NYI

New York Islanders

2-2-0

OTT

Ottawa Senators

3-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 15

7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Senators feed on mistakes, and the Islanders make them

The Islanders come in at 2-2-0, the Senators at 3-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and Ottawa has home ice. The Islanders can make it interesting if they keep shots to a minimum.

The Islanders come in at 2-2-0, the Senators at 3-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games, the Islanders may be without Barzal, and Ottawa has home ice. The Islanders’ best way through is keeping shots to a minimum.

The Senators pounce on loose pucks, and the Islanders cough them up. The Islanders and the Senators sit at opposite ends for depth.

Who to watch

  • Hot streakBo Horvat has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outM. Barzal is day to day and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Still outArtem Zub hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Senators feed on mistakes, and the Islanders make them

    The Senators turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Islanders are one of the league’s worst at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Islanders.

    The call The Senators get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.

    Ottawa 9th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · NY Islanders 31st for avoiding breakdowns

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. Depth against star power

    On depth, the Islanders is the league’s best and Ottawa is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Islanders spread their forward ice time deeper down the lineup than the Senators.

    Depth: NY Islanders 1st, Ottawa 27th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How NY Islanders and Ottawa play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New York IslandersOttawa SenatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for NY Islanders, 4 for Ottawa. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • NY Islanders: 52.2 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

      NY Islanders: 48.8 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

    • Ottawa: 54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

      Ottawa: 51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot15th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.9% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • NY Islanders: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

      NY Islanders: 6.7% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • NY Islanders: 6.9% of chances come right after a turnover27th of 32

      NY Islanders: 12.8% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

      Ottawa: 14.3% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • NY Islanders: 37.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen3rd of 32

      NY Islanders: 34.5% of shot attempts come from defensemen16th of 32

    • Ottawa: 33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

      Ottawa: 29.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • NY Islanders: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      NY Islanders: 35.5% of shots come from within 20 feet6th of 32

    • Ottawa: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Ottawa: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • NY Islanders: 58.2 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

      NY Islanders: 57.0 shot attempts allowed per 6021st of 32

    • Ottawa: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Ottawa: 58.3 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • NY Islanders: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot against20th of 32

      NY Islanders: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • NY Islanders: 0.48 defensive breakdowns per 6031st of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.67 defensive breakdowns per 6024th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: 0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • NY Islanders: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

      NY Islanders: +1.51 goals saved above expected per 602nd of 32

    • Ottawa: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Ottawa: +1.11 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • NY Islanders: 81.7 shots per 60, both teams combined16th of 32

      NY Islanders: 76.9 shots per 60, both teams combined23rd of 32

    • Ottawa: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Ottawa: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • NY Islanders: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)23rd of 32NY Islanders: 21.3 forecheck plays recorded per 6020th of 32

      NY Islanders: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)21st of 32NY Islanders: 22.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 118 (100 is league average)5th of 32Ottawa: 27.9 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)9th of 32Ottawa: 29.9 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • NY Islanders: hit score 102 (100 is league average)15th of 32NY Islanders: 27.0 hits recorded per 6016th of 32

      NY Islanders: hit score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 32NY Islanders: 31.4 hits recorded per 6012th of 32

    • Ottawa: hit score 118 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 32.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 35.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • NY Islanders: 44.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

      NY Islanders: 46.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six1st of 32

    • Ottawa: 40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

      Ottawa: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • NY Islanders: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play29th of 32

      NY Islanders: 5.9 expected goals per 60 on the power play24th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Ottawa: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

      NY Islanders: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • NY Islanders: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      NY Islanders: 2.5 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • NY Islanders: 0.11 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

      NY Islanders: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.17 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Ottawa is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New York Islanders

Ottawa Senators

Worth knowing

  • NY Islanders M. Barzal is day to day and has not played this season. He is one of their most valuable skaters. V. Eklund has taken his spot beside B. Schenn and C. Ritchie.
  • NY Islanders K. Palmieri is no longer killing penalties: 0% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 37% last season.
  • Ottawa A. Zub has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Sanderson is out and has missed the last 3 games. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Spence has started killing penalties: on the ice for 41% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 4% last season.

Who Ottawa is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Ottawa group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are NY Islanders’s, named in each box.

NY Islanders’s lines tonightL1 Palmieri · Horvat · HeinemanL2 Schenn · Ritchie · EklundL3 Pageau · Duclair · HolmstromL4 Cizikas · Palat · Maccelli

Ottawa forward lines against NY Islanders forward lines

  • L1Giroux · Amadio · PintoNYI L15%NYI L269%NYI L320%NYI L47%
  • L2Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundNYI L15%NYI L244%NYI L345%NYI L47%
  • L3Foegele · Batherson · StützleNYI L123%NYI L256%NYI L311%NYI L49%
  • L4Cousins · Hodgson · HallidayNYI L10%NYI L236%NYI L364%NYI L40%

Ottawa defense pairs against NY Islanders forward lines

  • P1Chabot · SpenceNYI L116%NYI L254%NYI L319%NYI L411%
  • P2Kleven · YakemchukNYI L111%NYI L270%NYI L312%NYI L47%
  • P3Matinpalo · StanleyNYI L16%NYI L218%NYI L374%NYI L42%

Based on 1 Ottawa home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

NY Islanders power play against Ottawa penalty kill

  • NY Islanders power play

    6.7 expected goals per 60 · 29th of 32

  • Ottawa penalty kill

    7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 7th of 32

NY Islanders power play

PP172% of the time

Creates 7.2 expected goals per 60

  • M. SchaeferQuarterback
  • M. Maccelli
  • K. PalmieriNet-front
  • B. HorvatTrigger
  • B. Schenn

PP228% of the time

Creates 6.1 expected goals per 60

  • T. DeAngeloQuarterback
  • C. RitchieTrigger
  • S. Holmstrom
  • V. Eklund
  • A. DuclairNet-front

 

Where NY Islanders’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Ottawa penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

I. Sorokin58 starts · 1616 shots, this season and last

+32.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 791 shots
Medium-danger save %
.880 566 shots
High-danger save %
.772 259 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.42
Quality starts
55%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. SorokinS. VarlamovL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark50 starts · 1266 shots, this season and last

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 643 shots
Medium-danger save %
.881 438 shots
High-danger save %
.627 185 shots
Shots faced per 60
25
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Sorokin: +32.5 goals saved above expected in 58 starts
    • L. Ullmark: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Sorokin: 28.5 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Sorokin: 0.42 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 55% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 62% of the time

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Sorokin3 starts · 86 shots, this season

+5.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 42 shots
Medium-danger save %
.974 38 shots
High-danger save %
.667 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
29
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. SorokinS. VarlamovL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark3 starts · 68 shots, this season

+4.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 31 shots
Medium-danger save %
.935 31 shots
High-danger save %
.833 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Sorokin: +5.3 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • L. Ullmark: +4.8 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Sorokin: 29 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Sorokin: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Sorokin: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Sorokin: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Sorokin: a quality start 100% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time

I. Sorokin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
NY IslandersOttawaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play55.6%53.4%
  • Power play17.4%22.6%
  • Rebound6.6%7.2%
  • Empty net3.3%6.5%
  • Off a turnover2.5%4.1%
  • Goalie pulled6.2%2.4%
  • Shorthanded4.6%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win3.7%1.4%

241 NY Islanders goals and 292 Ottawa goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play46.2%58.3%
  • Power play23.1%25%
  • Rebound0%8.3%
  • Empty net7.7%0%
  • Off a turnover7.7%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded15.4%8.3%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

13 NY Islanders goals and 12 Ottawa goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New York Islanders · Ottawa Senators